Which new shows will survive the axe

Now that fall is coming to a close and the networks have made most of their full-season pickups, a new question is looming.

How many of these first-year shows will make it to a second year?

In a typical year a quarter to a third of new shows will stick around for at least one more season. But this year that total is likely to be much lower.

There are only two new shows, “Revolution” and “Arrow,” that have earned ratings worthy of a second-year pickup, and even “Revolution” is not a sure bet for renewal. NBC will wait to see how it performs when it returns from a three-month hiatus this spring.

Here’s a rundown on the odds of renewal of all the new Big Five shows that have debuted this spring.  (Note: “666 Park Avenue,” “Animal Practice,” “Emily Owens, M.D.,” “Last Resort,” “Made in Jersey” and “Partners” have already been canceled.)

"Arrow" (CW)

Odds of survival: 100 percent

This is the surest renewal on broadcast. It is the CW’s most-watched show already and has not shown the steep post-debut viewership declines common for so many first-year shows this season.

"Beauty and the Beast" (CW)

Odds of survival: 30 percent

This show has similar numbers to previous Thursday 9 p.m. timeslot occupant “The Secret Circle,” which was canceled after one season. “Beast” will return only if the CW’s midseason shows are hopelessly disappointing and it needs to fill space on the fall schedule.

"Ben & Kate" (Fox)

Odds of survival: 50 percent

Its ratings are terrible, but Fox believes in the creative promise of this show, and could well get behind it, much as it got behind “Raising Hope” a couple years ago. It may be renewed on that promise alone.

"Chicago Fire" (NBC)

Odds of survival: 40 percent

The Wednesday 10 p.m. drama’s ratings bumped up when it aired behind “The Voice” during a special Wednesday airing. That showed the network that it has potential if paired with the right program. Unfortunately, with Wednesday nights a disaster for the network, it can’t get renewed on potential.

"Elementary" (CBS)

Odds of survival: 75 percent

Ratings for the 10 p.m. Thursday drama have been disappointing, but the show is slated to air after the Super Bowl in February, which should give viewership a big kickup.

"Go On" (NBC)

Odds of survival: 70 percent

Its odds rise to 100 percent if it can produce halfway decent ratings when lead-in “The Voice” goes on hiatus next month. The comedy has really improved creatively since its debut, and it’s been beating Fox’s hit show “New Girl” in its timeslot, albeit with that hefty “Voice” lead-in.

"Guys with Kids" (NBC)

Odds of survival: 45 percent

“Kids” is this year’s “Up All Night,” a show that’s doing about as well as can be expected in a terrible timeslot with no lead-in support. NBC will probably try the show in another, more favorable slot before deciding its fate.

"Malibu Country" (ABC)

Odds of survival: 65 percent

“Malibu” had a huge premiere and then dipped, but its ratings have leveled off since then and it’s finishing first or second in its timeslot. With ABC’s sudden strength on Friday night (it’s won the past five weeks in 18-49s), the network may stick with the comedy hour of “Last Man Standing” and “Malibu” for another year.

"Nashville" (ABC)

Odds of survival: 40 percent

Like “Elementary,” this show has not lived up to preseason expectations. Had they not been so high, “Nashville” might stand a better chance of getting renewed, but creatively it’s not as good as it could be. It will have to show both better ratings and writing to get picked up for season two.

"Revolution" (NBC)

Odds of survival: 85 percent

“Revolution” is the only new show in the top 30 among 18-49s. But serialized dramas have tended to lose steam after long absences, and NBC is waiting to see whether “Revolution” can maintain its momentum come March, when it returns from a three-month layoff. “The Voice” lead-in helps the odds that its ratings will stay strong.

"The Mindy Project" (Fox)

Odds of survival: 50 percent

Its ratings could be worse and could be better. Creatively the show is strong and the network loves star Mindy Kaling. But it will probably only renew one of its new comedies, “Ben” or “Mindy.” Right now “Mindy” has the edge because its ratings are higher.

"The Mob Doctor" (Fox)

Odds of survival: 5 percent

Though Fox refuses to say the show is canceled, it is burning off the show’s final four episodes in a 10-day period, a pretty good indication it will not return.

"The Neighbors" (ABC)

Odds of survival: 20 percent

The Wednesday 8:30 p.m. comedy is not funny and its ratings aren’t good. Thus it won’t survive on a night where the other ABC comedies are of such high caliber, especially with the struggling “Happy Endings” poised to move back to Wednesday at midseason.

"The New Normal" (NBC)

Odds of survival: 55 percent

“Normal” has begun regularly beating its main timeslot rival, Fox’s “Mindy,” and it has the sort of high DVR viewership that can help a show get renewed. If only it were a better show, its odds would go up to 70 percent.

"Vegas" (CBS)

Odds of survival: 25 percent

After a solid debut, this Tuesday 10 p.m. drama has become a clunker, finishing behind NBC’s “Parenthood” in its timeslot the past few weeks. It will finish out the season but it won’t get a second.
 

***

In broadcast ratings for the week ended Dec. 2:

Among adults 18-49, NBC and CBS were first for the week, each with a 2.6 average rating and a 7 share, followed by ABC at 2.1/6, Fox at 1.8/5, Univision at 1.6/4, CW at 0.6/2, Telemundo at 0.5/1, TeleFutura and ION at 0.3/1, Estrella and Azteca at 0.1/0 and MundoFox at 0.0/0.

Top five English-language Big Five shows (18-49s): 1. NBC's "Sunday Night Football" 7.4; 2. CBS's "The Big Bang Theory" 5.5; 3. ABC's "Modern Family" 4.7; 4. NBC's "The Voice" 4.2; 5. CBS's "2 Broke Girls" 4.1.

Top five English-language Big Five shows (total viewers): 1. NBC's "Sunday Night Football" 20.42 million; 2. CBS's "NCIS" 19.76 million; 3 CBS's "The Big Bang Theory" 17.25 million; 4. ABC's "Dancing with the Stars Results" 16.73 million; 5. ABC's "Dancing with the Stars" 16.30 million.

Show on the rise: NBC's "Revolution," Monday, 10 p.m. The season one first-half finale posted a 2.9 among 18-49s, up 12 percent from a 2.6 the previous week.

Show on the decline: CBS's "Vegas," Tuesday, 10 p.m. The first-year drama has started to fade, last week slipping 11 percent week-to-week among 18-49s from a 1.8 rating to a 1.6.

 

WEEKLY PRIMETIME AVERAGES BY NETWORK Ranked on Households Week Ending Dec. 2
Network	Households			People 2+			Adults 18-49
	Rtg%	(000)	Shr	Rtg%	(000)	Shr	Rtg%	(000)	Shr
CBS	7.2	8270	12	3.9	11420	10	2.6	3330	7
ABC	5.1	5790	8	2.8	8030	7	2.1	2640	6
NBC	4.9	5610	8	2.8	7970	7	2.6	3350	7
FOX	3.1	3520	5	1.8	5200	4	1.8	2340	5
UNI	1.9	2210	3	1.4	3920	3	1.6	2050	4
CW	1.1	1250	2	0.6	1660	1	0.6	820	2
ION	0.8	910	1	0.4	1130	1	0.3	400	1
TEL	0.7	750	1	0.4	1210	1	0.5	640	1
TF	0.3	390	1	0.2	630	1	0.3	320	1
ETV	0.1	130	0	0.1	200	0	0.1	90	0
AZA	0.1	80	0	0.0	130	0	0.1	60	0
MFX	0.1	60	0	0.0	80	0	0.0	50	0
*Each rating point is equivalent to 1 percent or 1. 142 million homes Note: Viewing estimates include same day (3 a.m.-3 a.m.) DVR playback. Source: Nielsen

 

SEASON-TO-DATE PRIMETIME AVERAGES BY NETWORK Ranked on Households Week Ending Dec. 2
Network	Households			People 2+			Adults 18-49
	Rtg%	(000)	Shr	Rtg%	(000)	Shr	Rtg%	(000)	Shr
CBS	7.5	8520	12	4.0	11720	10	2.8	3570	8
ABC	5.9	6720	9	3.2	9170	8	2.6	3280	7
NBC	5.5	6290	9	3.1	8910	8	3.2	4060	9
FOX	4.2	4740	7	2.4	6850	6	2.4	3090	7
UNI	2.0	2250	3	1.3	3740	3	1.5	1920	4
CW	1.2	1410	2	0.7	1890	2	0.8	980	2
ION	0.7	850	1	0.4	1070	1	0.3	380	1
TEL	0.6	740	1	0.4	1210	1	0.5	650	1
TF	0.4	420	1	0.2	700	1	0.3	380	1
ETV	0.1	140	0	0.1	230	0	0.1	100	0
AZA	0.1	90	0	0.0	140	0	0.1	70	0
MFX	0.0	50	0	0.0	80	0	0.0	50	0
*Each rating point is equivalent to one percent or 1. 142 million homes Note: Season-to-date estimates are a weighted average and Live+7 data, except for the most recent two weeks which are based Live+SD viewing. Source: Nielsen

 

TOP 25 PROGRAMS – BROADCAST Ranked on Households Week Ending Dec. 2
#	PROGRAMS	Net	HOUSEHOLDS			PERSONS 2+
			Rtg%	Shr	(000)	#	Rtg%	(000)
1	NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL	NBC	12.4	19	14122	1	7.1	20416
2	NCIS	CBS	12.1	18	13852	2	6.8	19757
3	DANCING W/STARS RESULTS	ABC	10.8	17	12330	4	5.8	16726
4	DANCING WITH THE STARS	ABC	10.6	16	12078	5	5.6	16297
5	BIG BANG THEORY, THE	CBS	10.5	17	11950	3	6.0	17248
6	60 MINUTES	CBS	10.3	15	11737	5	5.6	16153
7	NCIS: LOS ANGELES	CBS	9.0	13	10234	7	5.0	14493
8	PERSON OF INTEREST	CBS	8.9	14	10155	7	5.0	14427
9	SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK	NBC	8.7	13	9909	7	5.0	14572
10	TWO AND A HALF MEN	CBS	8.6	13	9789	10	4.7	13742
11	CRIMINAL MINDS	CBS	8.0	12	9089	11	4.3	12374
11	CSI	CBS	8.0	13	9079	12	4.2	12106
13	BLUE BLOODS	CBS	7.3	13	8331	17	3.9	11311
14	2 BROKE GIRLS	CBS	7.2	10	8206	14	4.1	11740
15	VOICE	NBC	7.1	10	8082	12	4.2	12170
15	VOICE-TUE	NBC	7.1	11	8121	16	4.0	11574
17	MIKE & MOLLY	CBS	7.0	10	7965	17	3.9	11295
18	MODERN FAMILY	ABC	6.9	10	7843	14	4.1	12010
19	ELEMENTARY	CBS	6.8	11	7712	20	3.6	10456
20	FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3	NBC	6.7	10	7705	19	3.8	11072
20	HAWAII FIVE-0	CBS	6.7	11	7669	20	3.6	10300
22	CSI: NY	CBS	6.5	11	7377	24	3.4	9864
22	GOOD WIFE, THE	CBS	6.5	10	7461	24	3.4	9698
22	SURVIVOR: PHILIPPINES	CBS	6.5	10	7377	20	3.6	10374
25	AMAZING RACE 21	CBS	6.2	9	7057	23	3.5	10024
0Source: Nielsen

 

TOP 25 PROGRAMS – BROADCAST Adults 18-49 Week Ending Dec. 2
Rank	Program	Net	Rtg%	(000)
1	NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL	NBC	7.4	9422
2	BIG BANG THEORY, THE	CBS	5.5	6967
3	SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK	NBC	5.0	6273
4	MODERN FAMILY	ABC	4.7	5979
5	VOICE	NBC	4.2	5374
6	2 BROKE GIRLS	CBS	4.1	5145
7	TWO AND A HALF MEN	CBS	4.0	5115
8	FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3	NBC	3.8	4772
8	VOICE-TUE	NBC	3.8	4847
10	MIKE & MOLLY	CBS	3.6	4564
10	NCIS	CBS	3.6	4534
12	60 MINUTES	CBS	3.3	4238
12	HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER	CBS	3.3	4222
14	BIG BANG THEORY, THE-SPCL(S)	CBS	3.2	4014
15	GREY'S ANATOMY	ABC	3.1	3933
15	ONCE UPON A TIME	ABC	3.1	3952
17	DANCING W/STARS RESULTS	ABC	3.0	3784
18	CHARLIE BROWN CHRISTMAS(S)	ABC	2.9	3721
18	CRIMINAL MINDS	CBS	2.9	3703
18	NCIS: LOS ANGELES	CBS	2.9	3681
18	PERSON OF INTEREST	CBS	2.9	3634
18	REVOLUTION	NBC	2.9	3652
18	X-FACTOR-WED	FOX	2.9	3641
24	AMAZING RACE 21	CBS	2.7	3407
24	DANCING WITH THE STARS	ABC	2.7	3413
24	SEC CHAMP POST GAME(S)	CBS	2.7	3445
24	SNL CHRISTMAS(S)	NBC	2.7	3359
24	SURVIVOR: PHILIPPINES	CBS	2.7	3420
24	X-FACTOR-THU	FOX	2.7	3453
Source: Nielsen

  

SPANISH-LANGUAGE TELEVISION Ranked on Households Week Ending Nov. 25
#	PROGRAMS	Net	Rtg	P2+ (000)
1	AMORES VERDADEROS M-F	UNI	16.1	4116
2	POR ELLA SOY EVA M-F	UNI	15.0	3823
3	AMOR BRAVIO M-F	UNI	13.8	3373
4	REFUGIO PARA AMOR M-F	UNI	13.6	3312
5	AQUI Y AHORA SUN	UNI	10.6	2481
6	SABADO GIGANTE SAT	UNI	10.1	2412
7	FEST ACAPULCO JOAN S11/25(S)-11/25/2012	UNI	10.1	2344
8	PABLO ESCOBAR: PAT MAL MTW.F..	TEL	6.7	1495
9	FAMILIA P. LUCHE 2 SAT	UNI	6.7	1718
10	C. CERRADO-ED. ESTELAR M-F	TEL	6.3	1318
11	FUERZA COMANDO 11/25(S)-11/25/2012	UNI	5.8	1318
12	CORAZON VALIENTE M-F	TEL	5.5	1261
13	FUTBOL ESTELAR LEON 11/22(S)-11/22/2012	TEL	5.3	1597
14	CINE DE LAS ESTREL SUN 2	TF	5.1	1306
15	CINE DE LAS ESTREL SUN	TF	5.0	1242
16	ROSA DIAMANTE MTW.F..	TEL	4.8	1091
17	YO ME LLAMO SUN	TEL	4.7	1044
18	CINE EXCLUSIVO(S)-11/24/2012	TEL	4.5	1227
19	MARAV MUNDO DE DISNEY	TEL	4.5	1298
20	ROSTRO VENGANZA MTW.F..	TEL	4.0	917
21	FEST CINE CANTIFLAS IV(S)-11/22/2012	TEL	3.6	990
22	CINE MILLONARIO S	TEL	3.3	768
23	CINEPLEX 2 MTW.F..	TF	2.8	637
24	CINEPLEX MTW.F..	TF	2.6	652
25	CINEPLEX 3 SAT	TF	2.6	659
Source: Nielsen

 

HISPANIC ENGLISH-LANGUAGE VIEWING Ranked on Households Week Ending Nov. 25
#	PROGRAMS	Net	Rtg	P2+(000)
1	NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL	NBC	7.6	1646
2	SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK	NBC	6.1	1335
3	FOX NFL SUNDAY-PST GN-NAT	FOX	5.8	1103
4	NBC NFL TH SPECIAL(S)-11/22/2012	NBC	5.6	1405
5	VOICE	NBC	5.1	1006
6	FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3	NBC	4.7	1000
7	OT, THE	FOX	4.6	893
8	NBC NFL TH PRE-KICK(S)-11/22/2012	NBC	4.3	1049
9	DANCING WITH THE STARS	ABC	4.0	850
9	VOICE-TUE	NBC	4.0	774
Source: Nielsen

 

AFRICAN AMERICAN AUDIENCE ESTIMATES Ranked on Households Week Ending Nov. 25
#	PROGRAMS	Net	Rtg	P2+(000)
1	NBC SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL	NBC	14.5	2815
2	OT, THE	FOX	12.1	2399
3	SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK	NBC	11.3	2210
4	NBC NFL TH SPECIAL	NBC	10.9	2286
5	FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3	NBC	8.6	1698
6	SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL	ABC	8.3	1619
7	NCIS: LOS ANGELES	CBS	7.8	1488
8	DANCING WITH THE STARS	ABC	7.7	1345
9	X-FACTOR-THU TKG 8P	FOX	7.5	1752
10	NBC NFL TH PRE-KICK	NBC	7.2	1555
* Ratings based on 13.65 million African American TV homes. Source: Nielsen

 

Tags: abc, broadcast recap, cancellations, cbs, fox, nbc, new shows, new shows canceled, new shows renewed, ratings, renewals, TEL, TOP, tv ratings, UNI