Here they come: The 2014 ad spending forecasts
The first, from Pivotal's Brian Wierer, sees a 2.4 percent gain
December 9, 2013
‘Tis the season for eggnog, holiday specials and daily trips to the mall, but for media buyers and planners it’s an important time of year for another reason.
It’s when media analysts release their ad spending forecasts for the coming year.
Friday brought the first for 2014 from Pivotal Research Group senior research analyst Brian Wieser, and today ZenithOptimedia will release its outlook.
Though Wieser noted stronger-than-expected numbers for third quarter advertising, which he predicted will be up 3 percent when final numbers come out later this month, he slightly lowered his outlook for 2014 spending.
Wieser now forecasts a 2.4 percent gain in ad spending, down from 2.5 percent in his previous forecast.
There were no major changes in Wieser’s projections. He said the change simply reflects a few small tweaks of his forecast model.
“Low single-digit growth has been and will likely remain the norm,” Wieser notes in the report.
Pivotal sees broadcast TV, one of the biggest segments of advertising, as flat or down again next year, which cancels out some of the growth seen by the smaller segments of the media economy, including social media and mobile.
“Overall, digital growth is primarily benefiting the haves such as Google, Facebook, and anything programmatic, while the have-nots, such as especially portals and notionally premium content, continue to contract,” Wieser writes.
Print will be down, and Pivotal says that radio and out of home are stagnating, though not declining.
Wieser did increase his forecast for 2013 ad spending from 1.8 percent growth to 2.3 percent, owing in part to the stronger third quarter.
Over the next few days, other forecasters will join Wieser and ZenithOptimedia in releasing their updated 2014 outlooks, including Magna Global and GroupM.
In addition to the flurry of forecasts, here are some other media happenings to keep an eye out for this week:
The Heisman Trophy, given to college football’s most outstanding player, will be handed out Saturday night in a ceremony airing at 8 p.m. on ESPN.
The broadcasters put on a lot of holiday cartoons this time of year, but cable does something a bit different. A number of networks this week will offer special Christmas-themed editions of their top shows, whether or not they’re actually in the midst of broadcasting a season.
Discovery has an “Amish Mafia” special Tuesday, the same night as Lifetime’s “Dance Moms” special. ABC Family airs its first-ever holiday episodes of “Melissa & Joey” and “Baby Daddy” on Wednesday.
A&E’s “Duck Dynasty” special on Wednesday is sure to be one of the highest-rated shows on cable this week.
And even Adult Swim’s “NTSF:SD:SUV” has a “Wreck the Malls” holiday special Friday.
While it’s not being dubbed a Christmas episode, “Psych” has a special two-part musical episode on USA Sunday night.
The second season of the Netflix dramedy “Lilyhammer” will be released on Friday. Like previous Netflix programs, the streaming service will make the entire season available that day.
Notable TV finales
FX’s “Sons of Anarchy” wraps up Tuesday at 10 p.m.
Oprah Winfrey Network’s “Tyler Perry’s For Better or For Worse” closes out season three Wednesday at 9:30, and Comedy Central’s “South Park” ends season 17 at 10 that night.
The 27th season finale of “Survivor” takes place Sunday, and Showtime’s “Homeland” and “Masters of Sex” also air their season finales that evening.
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