Spot: Booming with record political dollars
New forecast predicts 10 percent gain for local TV
October 11, 2012
While print continues to struggle and growth in other traditional media is meager, spot television is cruising to a very good year.
The huge number of political dollars flowing to the medium, along with an anticipated bump in end-of-year bookings from retailers eager to reach holiday shoppers, will increase spot TV spending by 10 percent this year, according to a new forecast.
Revenue will increase to $20.3 billion this year, according to BIA/Kelsey, the Chantilly, Va., local media consulting and research firm. Last year spot brought in $18.437 billion.
Over-the-air TV spending will account for most of that money, $19.7 billion, up from $17.902 billion last year.
Digital revenue, though accounting for only a small portion of spot spending, will see stronger growth, up 14.9 percent this year from $525 million in 2011 to $615 million.
The total gains will be powered by political, which will infuse more than $3 billion into local TV station’s coffers by the end of the election period, according to the latest estimates from Wells Fargo.
That’s way up over the estimated $2.1 billion spent during the 2008 presidential campaign on spot television.
Though local cable has also been seeing notable gains, candidates continue to feel most comfortable putting their money in local broadcast.
It remains the best way to reach a wide swath of people with a single buy, because even at a time of declining ratings, broadcast still draws the largest audiences of any media.
The spot TV outlook was by far the most optimistic part of BIA/Kelsey’s most recent forecast for traditional media.
It revised its prediction slightly downward for radio, though it still foresees growth of 2.2 percent, to $14.868 billion this year.
Over the air ads will be up just 1.9 percent, from $14.115 billion to $14.377 billion.
Online, as is the pattern, will see a much bigger jump, 12.1 percent, going from $438 million to $491 million.
Buyers have noted, over the past few months, that radio is not seeing as much political spending as many had anticipated earlier this year.
It is still getting some spillover from spot television, with non-political advertisers being squeezed out by campaign and super political action committee spending taking refuge on radio.
The outlook is even drearier for newspapers. Unlike Borrell Associates, which recently predicted a 0.5 percent increase for newspaper print ad revenue next year, BIA/Kelsey doesn’t see much potential in print.
It’s predicting a decrease of 8.1 percent in newspaper revenue this year, including a print decline of 10 percent and online growth of 5 percent.
That’s bigger than the 5 percent dip BIA/Kelsey had predicted earlier this year, the company notes, because newspaper results so far in 2012 have been more disappointing than expected.
ABC and Fox tie for first on Thursday
The coming political boom for radio
How papers are reaching out to Millennials
Local Super Bowl advertising at a glance
Rachel, my boss doesn’t know when day’s done
So, what are your thoughts on Donald Trump now?
Weekend TV: The zombies are back
Newsweek tears down its paywall
Maybe it’s not quite time for the smartwatch
Cable overnights: Less excitement for Cavs-Lakers
A tight Wednesday night for broadcast
Programming blog: What’s canceled and renewed
Our most endangered medium: Direct mail
- Philippe Krakowsky rises to chairman at IPG Mediabrands
- Rodrigo Grau becomes CCO at JWT Latin America
- Charles Thornton becomes VP of digital at the Automotive Ad Agency
- Todd Eisner becomes creative director at barrettSF
- Sarah Katt becomes VP of product development at AccuWeather
- David Pescovitz becomes editor at large at WebbyAwards.com
- Eddie Jordan and Sabine Schmitz join BBC America's 'Top Gear'
- Lee Majors joins Starz' 'Ash vs. Evil Dead'
- Kyle Schmid joins History military drama 'Six'
- Shawn Ashmore joins ABC drama pilot 'Conviction'
- Scott Wilson joins Netflix's 'The OA'
This week’s broadcast ratings
This week’s cable ratings
This week’s top movies, songs and books
This week’s daypart ratings
This month’s new media traffic data
This week’s younger viewer ratings
Digital content manager opening in Atlanta
Senior media planner wanted in Des Moines
Media planner/buyer position in Cincinnati
Looking for a media strategist in Cincinnati
Opening for a marketing communications manager