Six big questions for the midseason

As the end of the fourth quarter draws near and the networks get ready to roll out their midseason schedules, there are a number of questions facing the networks.

The biggest, and the one media buyers will be paying the most attention to, is this: Can “American Idol” rebound from its lowest-rated season yet?

“Idol” clearly isn’t ever going to draw the same ratings it did in its prime. Nothing outside the NFL is capable of doing that anymore.

But last spring “Idol” looked more vulnerable than ever, becoming an afterthought in pop culture, even as it continued to rank as the No. 1 non-sports show on television.

This winter “Idol” has a chance to regain its swagger with a slew of new judges. Fox is banking on the fact that new judges helped temporarily resuscitate the show in season 10, when the addition of Jennifer Lopez and Steven Tyler led to ratings gains.

Season 12’s panel includes Keith Urban, Mariah Carey and Nicki Minaj, and Carey and Minaj are already getting tons of tabloid attention for their diva-liked behavior and rumored feud.

If that can’t draw people back to “Idol,” then its long and impressive reign atop the ratings may finally be over.

Here are midseason’s other five burning questions:

Can NBC maintain its lead?

At midseason NBC will lose the two shows that have kept it out front all fall, “SNF” and “The Voice.” Its remaining shows are stronger than they were last year but probably not enough to keep the lead among adults 18-49 if “Idol” shows some muscle or CBS sees some midseason improvements.

How much bigger will DVR viewership get?

It seems every month the number of households with DVRs rises incrementally, and time-shifted viewership is way up to start the season. Ratings tend to dip during the spring, and it will be interesting to see if DVR viewership gets any stronger when that happens.

How hard will the broadcast networks push to negotiate on C7 ratings this spring?

Because of the uptick in DVR usage, the networks have already begun pleading their case to replace the currency that’s used for upfront buys right now, C3 ratings, or commercial ratings including three-day DVR playback. They want the switch as soon as possible to C7, commercial ratings including seven-day DVR playback .

Buyers acknowledge that a change is probably inevitable but say it won’t come for several years. But it could well come sooner, perhaps as early as next year.

Will there be a new breakout hit on broadcast?

Fall brought only two shows that could possibly be labeled hits, NBC’s “Revolution” and the CW’s “Arrow,” but they will have to maintain their momentum during the second half of the season to keep that title. The rest of the new shows weren’t that impressive, but it’s always possible for a program to grow, as ABC’s “Scandal” has proven in its second season.

Will the comedy revival continue?

Unlike last year, there were no standout new sitcoms this season. If that doesn’t change at midseason, the networks may cool on introducing new comedy blocks to the schedule as they did so eagerly last May.

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In broadcast ratings for the week ended Dec. 16:

Among adults 18-49, CBS was first for the week with a 3.1 average rating and a 9 share, followed by NBC at 2.3/7, Fox at 1.6/4, ABC at 1.5/4, Univision at 1.3/4, CW and Telemundo at 0.6/2, TeleFutura at 0.4/1, ION at 0.3/1, Estrella and Azteca at 0.1/0 and MundoFox at 0.0/0.

Top five English-language Big Five shows (18-49s): 1. NBC’s “Sunday Night Football” 8.7; 2. CBS’s “The Big Bang Theory” 5.4; 3. CBS’s “60 Minutes” 4.9; 4. ABC’s “Modern Family” 4.2; 5. CBS’s “Two and a Half Men” 4.1.

Top five English-language Big Five shows (total viewers): 1. NBC’s “Sunday Night Football” 23.23 million; 2. CBS’s “60 Minutes” 19.63 million; 3 CBS’s “NCIS” 17.65 million; 4. CBS’s “The Big Bang Theory” 16.74 million; 5. CBS’s “NCIS: Los Angeles” 15.12 million.

Show on the rise: NBC’s “Dateline,” Friday, 10 p.m. The newsmagazine posted a 2.0 rating among 18-49s just hours after the Connecticut school shooting, up 17 percent from a 1.7 the previous week.

Show on the decline: ABC’s “Last Resort,” Thursday, 8 p.m. The first-year drama posted a 1.0 among 18-49s, off 17 percent from the previous week’s 1.2. It’s already been canceled.

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