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Pondering
when
Dan Rather will swing
Timing is everything as CBS looks for an out
Months before Richard Nixon's resignation, as he was
facing impeachment, a "60 Minutes" commentator compared the president to a dead
mouse on the kitchen floor of America. The only issue, observed Nicholas von Hoffman, was
who was going to pick him up by the tail and toss him into the trash.
CBS executives, much lathered by Von Hoffman's effrontery, booted him
from his post as a regular commentator.
These 30 years later, CBS executives are in a new lather over another
Republican president, and they're contemplating swinging another axe, this time against
what was only weeks ago a revered if time-tarnished name on broadcast television, longtime
nightly news anchor and "60 Minutes" correspondent Dan Rather.
The issue is when.
But the best bet is certainly by the end of the year, and likely sooner. Just
when will depend to some extent on further fallout from the botched Air National Guard
segment that aired Sept. 8, for which Rather apologized a week ago tonight.
Further fallout is indeed piling up. This weekend, CBS abruptly canceled a
"60 Minutes" segment raising questions about President Bush's reasons for going
to war with Iraq, saying in a statement: "We now believe it would be inappropriate to
air the report so close to the November election."
Meanwhile, the bloggers who first deflated the National
Guard story continue their calls for Rather's ouster, and of course it's a topic of
endless debate on the cable news magazines and talk radio. CBS affiliates around the
country are getting an earful from local viewers, raising further worries of steeper
declines in ratings.
But the big factor in the timing of Rather's departure will be events having
nothing to do with the White House.
On Dec. 1, just two months from now, Tom Brokaw retires from NBC's nightly
news show, long the clear leader, and that will offer CBS a dramatic opportunity, one the
longtime No. 3 evening news simply can't afford to take a pass on.
CBS would have the most to gain by implanting a new anchor just as Brokaw
retires, leaving three networks in a huge scramble as viewers suddenly confront the first
new lineup in nightly news anchors in decades.
CBS, having groomed no replacement for Rather, would seem to be in a tough
spot. But not really. NBC's Brian Williams, Brokaw's replacement, is nowhere near the draw
that Brokaw is, though he's pulled some decent numbers when sitting in.
Most likely, ABC's Peter Jennings, the longtime No. 2, will rise to the No. 1 slot.
But CBS, with a new anchor, would still be in an ideal position to pick up viewers
disaffected by the change at NBC. And that would serve CBS well when Jennings retires
within the coming several years.
Rather, who is 72, had hoped to stay on as anchor until 2006, but under his
latest contract he remains in the anchor's chair at the network's pleasure. There has been
vague talk that he would leave sometime next year.
Rather's fate will be decided by the two outsiders CBS named last week to
investigate the scandal now known as Rathergate, former U.S. Attorney General Dick
Thornburgh and former Associated Press CEO Louis D. Boccardi.
At CBS owner Viacom, executives such as chairman Sumner Redstone stress that
the panel is truly independent and that the network will follow its recommendations.
Rather is sweating, as he should be. Thornburgh has been critical of "60
Minutes" in the past, a fact that was known to CBS when he was named to the
investigation panel. Thornburgh and Boccardi are expected to tear up the reporting that
went into the disputed "60 Minutes" episode, and Rather won't have much to offer
in his defense.
The panel won't have to conclude that Rather should be fired over the
incident. A strong rebuke, backed by a slew of details of how the story was mishandled,
would be enough to force Rather to resign. To save face, Rather's resignation would likely
not come until after the elections. But it would also not likely come that much after Dec.
1, either. Each week that passes beyond that date would be a week of lost opportunity for
CBS News.
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Sept. 27,
2004 © 2004 Media Life
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