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This Xmas, we'll
shop with our hearts
Actually we always do, regardless of what we say
By Diego Vasquez
On Thursday millions of Americans will enjoy families, football and
food, giving thanks for all three. Then, for many, the next day will start their holiday
shopping season.
How will they spend? Each year about this time studies emerge proclaiming the
emotional health of the nation and its Christmas shoppers, in terms of what they intend to
spend.
But interestingly, as we learn from Gallup’s just-released annual
holiday spending survey, there's little correlation between what people say they will
spend and what they actually do spend.
What they say they will spend tends to reflect the economy, going up or down
accordingly. During good times, consumers reliably tell pollsters they intend to spend
more. During down times, they commit themselves to spending less.
But what they actually spend doesn't go down, just up, growing year by year
regardless of the state of the economy.
Conclusion: We may say we will exercise spending restraint through tougher
times, we may actually believe it, but when we get to the mall all such notions are left
in the parking lot.
In 1999, when the economy was pretty robust, Gallup reported that holiday
shoppers intended to increase their gift spending by 31 percent over the prior year, to
$857. Actual spending that year rose far less, between 8 percent and 9 percent.
In 2000, with the economy beginning to sour, shoppers reported that they
intended to reduce their spending by 5 percent versus the previous year, to $817. But
actual spending again rose, though more modestly than the previous year, by 4 to 5
percent.
As we all know, 2001 was another tough year, and again Gallup reported that
consumers intended to reduce their holiday spending, this time by 3 percent. But again
actual spending rose by several percentage points. In 2002, expected spending fell by 13
percent but actual spending again rose by several points.
A turning point of sorts arrived last year, indicating that the economy's
long struggle back was having its effect on consumers. For the first time in several years
they told Gallop they intended to increase their holiday spending, this time by 6 percent.
And for once they spent what they said they would, with spending up between 5 percent and
7 percent.
This year, Gallup reports that consumers are saying they will trim spending
slightly, by .5 percent, suggesting we are not nearly as optimistic about the economy as a
year ago. Still, we can expect actual spending to increase by the usual several
points.
TOP MOVIES
Weekend Box Office Estimates
Weekend of November 19-21, 2004 |
| Rank |
MOVIE |
Engagements |
Box office (millions) |
| 1 |
National Treasure
(Buena Vista) |
3017 |
$35.30 |
| 2 |
The SpongeBob
SquarePants Movie (Paramount) |
3212 |
$33.50 |
| 3 |
The Incredibles
(Buena Vista/Pixar) |
3683 |
$26.79 |
| 4 |
The Polar Express
(Warner Bros.) |
3650 |
$15.21 |
| 5 |
Bridget Jones: The
Edge of Reason (Universal) |
2450 |
$10.10 |
| 6 |
After the Sunset
(New Line) |
2819 |
$5.28 |
| 7 |
Ray (Universal) |
2027 |
$4.60 |
| 8 |
The Grudge (Sony) |
2112 |
$3.80 |
| 9 |
Seed of Chucky
(Rogue) |
2062 |
$3.14 |
| 10 |
Saw (Lions Gate) |
1679 |
$3.00 |
| Source:
Yahoo Movies |
TOP VIDEO RENTALS
Week ending November 14, 2004 |
| Rank |
MOVIE |
| 1 |
Shreck 2
(Dreamworks) |
| 2 |
White Chicks
(Columbia TriStar) |
| 3 |
The Day After
Tomorrow (Fox) |
| 4 |
Van Helsing
(Universal) |
| 5 |
Dawn of the Dead
(Universal) |
| 6 |
Around the World in
80 Days (Disney Home Video) |
| 7 |
Garfield the Movie
(Fox Video) |
| 8 |
Raising Helen
(Touchstone) |
| 9 |
Man on Fire (Fox) |
| 10 |
A Cinderella Story
(Warner Home Video) |
| Source:
Billboard |
BESTSELLING ALBUMS
Week ending November 14,
2004 |
| Rank |
TITLE |
Last week |
Weeks on chart |
| 1 |
Eminem, Encore |
- |
1 |
| 2 |
Shania Twain,
Greatest Hits |
- |
1 |
| 3 |
Toby Keith, Greatest
Hits 2 |
- |
1 |
| 4 |
Britney Spears,
Britney Spears Geatest Hits: My Prerogative |
- |
1 |
| 5 |
Various Artists, Now
17 |
1 |
2 |
| 6 |
Fabolous, Real Talk |
- |
1 |
| 7 |
Ja Rule, R.U.L.E. |
- |
1 |
| 8 |
Usher, Confessions |
4 |
34 |
| 9 |
Nelly, Suit |
3 |
9 |
| 10 |
George Strait, 50
Number Ones |
6 |
6 |
| Source:
Billboard |
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLING BOOKS
Week ending November 6, 2004 |
| Fiction
(hardback) |
| Rank |
TITLE |
Last week |
Weeks on chart |
| 1 |
Metro Girl by
Janet Evanovich |
- |
1 |
| 2 |
Hour Game by
David Baldacci |
1 |
4 |
| 3 |
The Da Vinci
Code by Dan Brown |
4 |
86 |
| 4 |
Echoes by
Danielle Steele |
2 |
2 |
| 5 |
The Five
People You Meet in Heaven by Mitch Albom |
5 |
59 |
| Nonfiction
(hardback) |
| 1 |
America (The
Book) by Jon Stewart, Ben Karlin, and David Javerbaum |
1 |
7 |
| 2 |
When Will
Jesus Bring the Pork Chops by George Carlin |
4 |
4 |
| 3 |
How to Talk
to a Liberal (If You Must) by Ann Coulter |
3 |
5 |
| 4 |
The Last
Season by Phil Jackson with Michael Arkush |
2 |
3 |
| 5 |
His
Excellency by Joseph J. Ellis |
6 |
2 |
| Fiction
(paperback) |
| 1 |
Blue Dahlia
by Nora Roberts |
1 |
2 |
| 2 |
Skipping
Christmas by John Grisham |
2 |
4 |
| 3 |
The Big Bad
Wolf by James Patterson |
3 |
6 |
| 4 |
Always by
Jude Deveraux |
4 |
2 |
| 5 |
Emma’s
Secret by Barbara Taylor Bradford |
- |
1 |
| Nonfiction
(paperback) |
| 1 |
Friday Night
Lights by H. G. Bissinger |
1 |
8 |
| 2 |
Reading
Lolita in Tehran by Azar Nafisi |
3 |
45 |
| 3 |
The 9/11
Commission Report |
2 |
16 |
| 4 |
Devil in the
White City by Erik Larson |
- |
39 |
| 5 |
Tuesdays With
Morrie by Mitch Albom |
- |
100 |
| Source:
New York Times |
USA TODAY BESTSELLING BOOKS
Week ending November 14, 2004 |
| Rank |
TITLE |
Last week |
| 1 |
The Polar Express by
Chris Van Allsburg |
6 |
| 2 |
London Bridges by
James Patterson |
- |
| 3 |
The Perricone
Promise by Nicholas Perricone |
- |
| 4 |
America (The Book)
by Jon Stewart, Ben Karlin, and David Javerbaum |
2 |
| 5 |
Blue Dahlia by Nora
Roberts |
1 |
| 6 |
He’s Just Not
That Into You by Greg Behrendt and Liz Tuccillo |
3 |
| 7 |
I Am Charlotte
Simmons by Tom Wolfe |
- |
| 8 |
Your Best Life Now
by Joel Osteen |
9 |
| 9 |
Skipping Christmas
by John Grisham |
4 |
| 10 |
Angels & Demons
by Dan Brown |
10 |
| Source:
USA Today |
|
Nov. 22,
2004 © 2004 Media Life
- Diego Vasquez is
a staff writer for Media Life.
|
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Holiday
Gift Spending
Expected Versus Actual Gift Spending |
Year |
Mid-November
Spending Expectations |
Percent
Change |
Actual
Spending Percent Change |
1999 |
$857 |
+31% |
+8-9% |
2000 |
$817 |
-5% |
+4-5% |
2001 |
$794 |
-3% |
+2-5% |
2002 |
$690 |
-13% |
+2-4% |
2003 |
$734 |
+6% |
+5-7% |
2004 |
$730 |
-0.5% |
- |
| Source: Gallup |
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