Jack Myers of the Myers Report has been around the media industry for years and is probably best known for his forecasts on ad spending. But that's just one of the areas he covers in his newsletters. He writes extensively about TV programming, as well as on the forces he feels are bringing about changes in how consumers use media and how those changes will affect the industry. Media Life talked to Jack the other day about the new technologies, the media economy, disappearing viewers and his recent dust-up with Fox News.

    "Threat" is the wrong word. 
   "Empowering" is a more appropriate description of the impact DVRs and VOD will have on the advertising business. Marketers and media buyers already understand that the average commercial generates only 10 percent to 15 percent next-day unaided recall. 
   They already understand that a large percentage of viewers avoid commercials through the remote control or simply by mentally zoning out. 
  New media technologies empower advertisers to deliver advertising on demand to qualified, interested customers. It allows for direct marketing and promotional applications. It changes television from a one-way mass experience to a targeted two-way experience.

   Research capabilities driven by digital technology -- specifically the industry acceptance of the 4A's and ANA Ad-ID system will be the first major technology-driven innovation.
  For 2004, the rapid ascendancy of high definition television as consumers purchase more large screen televisions.

     The recession in the ad community hit in March of 2001. Because the internet stocks and ad budgets had pushed the market so high, many felt that a traditional recession could not have a significant impact on the high-flying industry. 
   The ad community was hit by three separate forces: the overall general slide in the economy; the collapse of the internet market; and Sept. 11, 2001. 
   These forces drove the market down far more dramatically than most had expected. 
   However, it is more important to recognize that advertising was the first major industry to rebound from the recession and has been a leading indicator of economic growth and resiliency.

   In two years, we will look back and see that the indicators available today were pointing in a clear direction of continued fragmentation, growth of digital distribution, growth of satellite penetration, broadcast network erosion, more accountability and auditing in advertising, shifts of budgets into more direct and promotional media opportunities, and new programmer/advertiser relationships. 
   Research will continue to uncover anomalies that surprise the media community as research becomes more detailed. But the basic foundations of the industry will remain unchanged.

   I have been providing detailed insights on sales organization performance to TV networks for 20 years. 
   More than 350 advertisers and agency executives participated in the survey this year, evaluating the performance of the networks' sales organizations. 
   Fox News had some positives and some negatives. Most executives over the years have been appreciative and responsive to the insights and intelligence and have used the data to improve their services to the ad community. 
   Fox News decided it was more appropriate to attack the messenger rather than evaluate the potential to improve their sales organization and relationships in the ad community.
   More distressing, Paul Rittenberg made the attacks very personal and unprofessional. 
  There has been no further follow-up, but from the feedback I have received, most people in the industry think Paul's actions are consistent with his typical professionalism. 
  I would welcome the opportunity to lunch with Roger Ailes and discuss our mutual interests in assuring the TV network community provides the highest level of support for the ad community.