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revived, goes for ad $s
Thanks, Dr. Phil. Upfront could be up 10 percent.
By Kevin Downey
A much-needed boost to syndicated television’s image this year is expected to payoff with an advertising windfall in this summer’s ad-selling season.
Thanks in large part to new hit shows like “Dr. Phil” and generally good ratings, syndication is expected to pull off a record $2.2 billion upfront.
That is a 10 percent increase over last year and equivalent to the average 10 percent increase forecast for all national TV advertising, which is projected to hit $16.3 billion in commercial time booked for the coming year, according to the Jack Myers Report.
Ad spending on network TV is forecast to increase nearly 7 percent, to $8.75 billion, and cable is forecast to increase about 16 percent, to $5.35 billion. Both would be new records.
Syndicated TV’s increase comes on top of an 18 percent jump last year and partly reflects a rebounding ad economy no longer hindered by the Iraq war. But it also reflects what many media analysts expect will be another good season for syndicated ratings starting in the fall, when new shows debut.
“I’m at plus-10, which is reflective of the success [syndication’s] had with ‘Dr. Phil’ and the anticipation of shows like ‘Sharon Osbourne’ and ‘Ellen DeGeneres,’” says Myers.
“Advertisers, agencies and buyers are looking at syndication not just as an alternative but as a complement to broadcast and cable with high-quality programming.”
Moreover, higher ratings on syndication mean there is more inventory available this year than last, while the average CPM, or the cost to reach 1,000 viewers, is projected to rise 5 percent to 7 percent.
“All I can say is that if there is anyone who has his finger on the pulse, [Myers] does,” says Bill Carroll, vice president and director of programming at Katz Television Group. “I’m not hearing anything informally that would tell me otherwise.”
The reason for the positive outlook for syndicated TV is twofold.
First, the overall television market is robust with advertisers returning to pre-war advertising strategies, while some are also releasing money held back during the recession and the recent unrest in Iraq.
“I think advertisers are returning to the goals they set before the war,” says Myers. “I don’t think there was that much money that wasn’t spent or held in reserve.”
Second, and far more important, is the increasing cachet of syndication with this season’s hits.
“When you have the success of ‘Dr. Phil,’ the relative success of ‘Millionaire,’ the continued success of blue-chip programs, and the perennial success of shows like ‘Wheel of Fortune,’ ‘Oprah’ and ‘Entertainment Tonight,’ it’s easier to put together positive stories,” says Carroll.
“As a result, the detractors are not going to be able to look at syndication in as negative a way.”
Syndicated TV may also benefit from healthy network and cable TV upfronts.
If inventory gets tight or CPMs go too high, some media buyers could divert some cash to syndication. In other words, there is a potential overflow that can only add to a strong syndication upfront.
While the outlook for ad spending in the syndication upfront is getting clearer, one thing that is less certain is when the market will break or how long media buyers and sellers will be making deals.
“There is no pattern I’ve seen over the past few years,” says Carroll. “At this point, I don’t know that anyone can say with any certainty how this will play out.”
May 6, 2003© 2003 Media Life
-Kevin Downey is a staff writer for Media Life.
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