|
|
in audience share
Takes Q1, a first, for a full year. Wins sweeps too.
By Kevin Downey
The ongoing war in Iraq may end up souring forecasts for this summer’s upfront, when the cable networks are expected to pull in about $5 billion, but there’s no shortage of media sellers already jockeying for an increased share of the billions advertisers are set to spend.
One piece of information now being used to do that is this week's ratings report that shows the cable networks for the first time beat the broadcast networks in first quarter.
The cable networks’ aggregate share of the household audience in primetime went up from 44.8 percent last year to 46.7 percent this year.
The Big Four broadcast networks’ share was down from 45.2 last year, when NBC had the Olympics, and 47.4 the year before to 43.7 this year. Those figures are based on an analysis of Nielsen Media Research data done by Turner Research.
Cable even had a better share than the combined seven broadcast networks, with a 47.6 share compared to a 47.5 share, based on more complete data released last night by the Cabletelevision Advertising Bureau.
“The general trend is that cable is growing share every year and the broadcast networks are losing share,” says Jack Wakshlag, chief research officer at Turner Broadcasting.
“The broadcast networks are still powerful, but they are eroding. This is the first time cable has won first quarter, but cable has now won four quarters in a row.”
The win in first quarter is notable since the broadcast networks generally run original programming, particularly in the February sweeps when the networks’ local affiliates set ad rates.
But cable also beat the Big Four in the sweeps for the first time, with a 45.4 share compared to the broadcast networks’ 45.1.
“Some of the growth, granted they are small, is because there are always new networks being added,” says Jordan Breslow, manager of national broadcast research at MediaCom.
“It’s the nature of cable to grow, even if the existing networks are flat.”
Still, while the ratings are encouraging for the cable networks, and sellers of cable network ad time in particular, some forecasters are projecting relatively flat prices for the cable networks in this year’s upfront.
Overall, advertisers are expected to spend at least 10 percent more on the cable networks than they did last year, but much of that will reflect spending on an increased number of networks, not increased CPMs, or the cost to reach 1,000 viewers.
“It may be flat overall, but I don’t think it should be for the networks that are substitutes for broadcast,” says Wakshlag.
“In the market we’re going into I’d be surprised if anyone charged less. If CPMs are flat that means some networks are charging more and some are charging less.”
Spending last year went up 15 percent, according to the Jack Myers Report, over 2001, when the country was still deep into a recession and the cable upfront declined for the first time ever.
Advertisers spent about $4.6 billion in last year’s upfront on the cable networks for a 15 percent increase, which was just shy of the 16 percent increase in spending that pushed the broadcast networks to a near-record $8 billion.
One thing that could detract from cable’s first-quarter performance is that most media buyers realize ratings in the past two weeks have been going up by triple-digit percentages, on a year-to-year basis, for the news networks, which continue to be the most-watched networks on cable.
Moreover, there was the Columbia space shuttle crash and the recovery of Elizabeth Smart fueling interest in the news networks earlier in first quarter.
Fox News’ average primetime audience went up 83 percent compared to last year to just under 2.2 million people. CNN’s audience was up 75 percent to 1.6 million, and MSNBC’s audience was up 96 percent, to 666,000.
“There’s no question that has improved the outlook for cable,” says Breslow.
“The largest declines in the cable universe, pre-March, were for the cable news networks, which was during a slow news period and when we were making comparisons to post-9/11 figures.”
Many of the general entertainment and niche cable networks, however, also posted gains in first quarter.
Top-rated networks like TNT, TLC and Sci-Fi increased their average audience by more than 10 percent, while other networks, notably Lifetime and Discovery, had decreases of more than 20 percent.
April 3, 2003© 2003 Media Life
-Kevin Downey is a staff writer for Media Life.
Printer-Friendly
Version | Send
to a Friend
Cover Page | Contact
Us