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an anxious midseason
Slew of new shows to combat a slump in ratings
By Kevin Downey
If you've been sniffing over the tawdry promotions for shows like last night’s “Joe Millionaire” and tomorrow’s “Celebrity Mole: Hawaii," suspecting that these new lows in reality TV reflect the broadcast networks' panic to build ratings as the midseason kicks off this week, well, you've got it right.
They are desperate, as they ought to be.
In this traditional period for shaking off the season's mistakes, the networks are rolling out more than 20 new shows over the coming months. That's a lot of shows.
The reason comes down to slumping ratings and stiff competition.
Ratings are down between 2 percent and 10 percent for all the Big Four networks in the regular season through December.
Moreover, while NBC is firmly entrenched at No. 1 with a 4.6 rating in the coveted adult 18-49 demographic, CBS, ABC and Fox are fighting for No. 2 with only three-tenths of a rating point separating them.
“It’s entirely possible that there will be changes [in the rankings] but no seismic shifts,” says John Rash, senior vice president and director of broadcast negotiations at Campbell Mithun.
“It’s likely that NBC will remain No. 1. Even if another network gets a spike from a reality show, though, it probably will not change the direction of the ratings race.”
Despite the best efforts of networks like CBS and Fox, however, the one show that may ultimately decide which network finishes the season at No. 2 is the Super Bowl.
The annual ratings juggernaut, almost always the most highly rated program of the year, will air this month on ABC and could give that network enough of a boost to push it farther ahead of Fox and allow it to slip past CBS, which currently stands at No. 2 with a 3.9 adult 18-49 rating.
ABC has a 3.7 and Fox has a 3.6.
“Regardless of the impact, most observers don’t count that as part of the regular ratings,” notes Rash.
“It’s such an anomaly, it is not relevant to the Nielsen numbers.”
Moreover, Super Bowl or not, regularly scheduled programs generally determine which networks will do best in the long term.
To that end, ABC is rolling out six shows in midseason, including “The Bachelorette,” a slight twist on the hugely popular “The Bachelor.” The reality show premieres tomorrow.
ABC has “Celebrity Mole: Hawaii” also on Wednesday and a remake of “Dragnet” for Sundays.
“Veritas: The Quest” is a drama with an archeological angle, while “Miracles” is about an investigator and “Regular Joe” centers on family relationships.
CBS has four shows coming in midseason, including an updated “Star Search,” the talent show that in its original run predated Fox’s “American Idol” by nearly two decades.
“Queens Supreme” is a drama focusing on a judge in New York City, while “Charlie Lawrence” gives Nathan Lane a chance to redeem himself in the world of sitcoms.
Meanwhile, the still unscheduled “My Big Fat Greek Life” is notable mostly for running the very high risk of sullying the good name of its mother, "My Big Fat Greek Wedding," a surprise hit at the box office last year.
“It’s tough to say who will rank No. 2 but CBS is still having a very good run with ‘Survivor,’ and they have the fewest midseason shows,” says Shari Anne Brill, vice president and director of programming services at Carat.
“It’s going to be a very close race between CBS and ABC with Fox coming in third or fourth.”
NBC will have as many as six new series in midseason, including “Watching Ellie,” the sitcom with Julia Louis-Dreyfus that had an aborted run last year, and “War Stories” with Jeff Goldblum, a movie that could turn into a series.
There are the comedies “A.U.S.A.” and “The Jake Effect,” starring Jason Bateman but not yet scheduled. Dramas include “Mister Sterling” about a U.S. senator and “Kingpin,” a series about a Mexican drug cartel already creating some buzz among media buyers.
Besides “Joe Millionaire” and “American Idol 2,” Fox has the unscheduled sitcoms “Oliver Beene,” “The Pitts” and “Wanda at Large.”
“A really good hit show could make a difference,” says Brill.
“But there is going to be such a glut of reality and talent shows. Unless a show has something substantially different, they run the risk of canceling each other out. ‘American Idol’ will help Fox but it won’t put them back into second place.”
Meanwhile, UPN and the WB combined have nine shows on tap, although not have all been scheduled. The shows include a mix of reality programs, like the WB’s “High School Reunion,” which premiered on Sunday, dramas and sitcoms, like UPN’s “Abby.”
January 7, 2003© 2002 Media Life
-Kevin Downey is a staff writer for Media Life.
