Friday

OK, sly Fox,
what's next?

It must build on success of 'Idol' and 'Joe.' Will it?

By Kevin Downey

   Perhaps more than any other network, Fox is masterful at dreaming up short-term solutions like “American Idol” and “Joe Millionaire” to turn a disastrous season into one in which it will probably rank No. 1 when the February sweeps end next week.
   The far more daunting challenge for Fox, however, is yet to come, and will mean the difference between the network scrambling for more short-term fixes in seasons to come or cresting on sustained strong ratings from a solid lineup of hits.
   The question is, will Fox squander its reality hits or capitalize on them to launch scripted shows that live on long after “Idol” and presumed sequels to “Joe” are gone?
   Interesting question.
   “It’s hard to tell right now because they haven’t aired many new scripted programs yet,” says Jordan Breslow, manager of national broadcast research at MediaCom.
   “They have some coming in March, so it will be interesting to see whether they use ‘Idol’ to launch those shows.”
   Moreover, recent history on other networks suggests parlaying one success into another isn’t a sure bet.
   Simply looking back to ABC’s “Who Wants to be a Millionaire” provides some discouragement.
   ABC’s biggest mistake with that game show wasn’t over-extending it but rather failing to use “Millionaire” to launch new programs, particularly the generally longer-lived scripted shows that could still be hits today.
   Instead, ABC mostly used “Millionaire” as a time slot lead-in for shows like “Dharma & Greg” and “Drew Carey” that, while indeed getting a short-lived boost, proved to be beyond the point of revival.
   CBS, perhaps having learned a lesson from ABC, had a different story when “Survivor” became the first successful reality show in the summer of 2000.
   Not only did CBS use “Survivor” in its second season to launch a new show -- “CSI,” now the most-watched program on television and the first in a franchise -- but it moved both shows to Thursday to challenge NBC’s dominance on that night.
   The magnitude of CBS’s success in building on “Survivor” will become even more clear in future seasons when that reality show is gone but “CSI” and maybe “Without a Trace” continue on.
   “One of the challenges ABC had was that ‘Millionaire’ skewed so old that some of those people wouldn’t watch the other shows,” says Breslow.
   “CBS had the benefit of ‘Survivor’ skewing young, so they could use it to plug some of their other shows.”
   So far, Fox’s use of “Idol” and “Joe” to build up the rest of its schedule is only somewhat encouraging.
   The immediate impact of an overall ratings boost is clear.
   Fox’s adult 18-49 rating for the February sweeps through Tuesday is up 58 percent, compared to the same time last year, not counting the Super Bowl. The network ranks No. 1 in the demographic with a nearly 1-point lead over NBC.
   Fox’s longer-term prospects are less certain.
   The network is giving a few scripted shows a boost that could translate into a bigger audience base for future seasons.
   On Tuesdays, “24” has benefited from an “Idol” lead-in. That show this week had its highest adult 18-49 rating ever and now regularly beats all competitors in its 9 p.m. time slot, including NBC’s “Frasier.”
   Fox is using “Idol” on Wednesdays to boost lead-in “That '70s Show” and lead-outs “Bernie Mac” and “Cedric the Entertainer.” The two returning shows ("Cedric" is new) have better ratings now than last season, according to Fox.
   But while “Joe” benefited Monday lead-in “Boston Public” some, a recent lead-out was newsmagazine “The Pulse” after a Thursday repeat. “The Pulse” started strong in its premiere last month but will languish against CBS and NBC.
   Moreover, while Fox is debuting four new shows in March, only “Wanda at Large” will get a chance to pull from “Idol’s” audience. The sitcom premieres on Wednesday, March 26.
   A reality show called “Married by America” will take “Joe’s” Monday time slot, while sitcoms “Oliver Beene” and “The Pitts” will air on Sundays.

-Kevin Downey is a staff writer for Media Life.

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