Monday

Very slight
ad losses from war

Chump change: Off just $6 million after two weeks

By Toni Fitzgerald

   Compared to original predictions, television advertising revenue losses from the war have been minuscule, a mere fraction of the millions that had been expected.
   The loss of television advertising money during the first week of the war was steep, as predicted, but a decent bounce in the second week helped offset the initial loss of more than $77 million to less than $6 million total lost.
   Considering reports had predicted losses of up to $100 million for the broadcast networks alone, the new report from CMR/TNS Media examining the financial impact of the war’s first two weeks contains very positive news.
   Well before the war began, analysts put total advertising losses from the war at anywhere between a hefty $400 million to $1 billion.
    Up to 90 percent of total media losses were predicted to occur in television.
   Well, nothing nearly that bad happened.
   Through the first two weeks of the war, cumulative losses for all areas of television advertising have totaled $5.8 million. Big losses in week one were offset by large second-week gains among network, non-news cable and spot TV ads.
   Almost every medium was down during the first week of the war, with broadcast networks taking the biggest hit.
   But cable news networks, which remained commercial free for much longer than the Big Four networks, took the more significant hit over the two weeks.
   Cable news was the only medium still losing money in week two, when all the others recovered to post gains.
Even when commercials had returned to the cable news channels, some advertisers remained skittish, concerned about hawking products alongside grisly images from Iraq.
   Thus during every day of the first two weeks of the conflict cable news networks have lost advertising dollars. Only one day did those losses total less than $1 million.
   Overall the five networks (MSNBC, CNBC, CNN, Headline News and Fox News Channel) have lost more than $28 million in advertising.
   Of course, that’s just over half the amount lost by network television, much of it in the first three days of the conflict.
   Most of the networks went commercial free for at least portions of those days, although they defied earlier predictions of 24- to 48-hour blocks of ad-free time, returning to regular schedules for the most part by the second day of the conflict.
   The networks lost more than $46 million the first three days of the war. But during the second week, strong Friday, Saturday and Sunday performances lifted the networks to a $27.5 million revenue gain.
   Cable news, meanwhile, lost $10.9 million in that span. Revenues dropped by 44 percent in week two compared to last year.
    Non-news cable networks, the only medium to make gains during the first week of the war, more than doubled their first-week totals to $23.3 million. They had the biggest cumulative rise of 14 percent.
   Spot TV measured in the 100 biggest markets had revenue gains of $29.8 million, recovering from an $8.6 million loss during the first week of war.
    Advertising revenues on cable news networks were off by 57 percent for the first two weeks of the war. Spanish-language television took the second-worst hit, 7 percent.
   Network TV was down 4 percent while non-news cable and spot TV actually rose by 10 and 3 percent, respectively.
   Compared to the same week last year, cumulative revenues were actually up for the second week of the war.

WHAT THE NETWORKS LOST

REVENUE LOSS/GAIN

1st Week

3/19

3/20

3/21

3/22

3/23

3/24

3/25

by Media (estimates)

Wed

Thurs

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tues

Network TV

-53,596

-10,127

-22,366

-14,550

-732

485

-4,165

-2,141

Cable News

-17,624

-1,325

-3,656

-3,261

-2,320

-2,787

-2,696

-1,579

Cable Other

9,916

1,410

97

-361

709

1,899

2,230

3,933

Spot TV

-8,560

-3,234

-12,439

-6,649

4,363

3,807

2,415

3,178

Spanish Language Network TV

-7,149

-945

-2,914

-1,842

-552

260

-762

-394

Total of Week 1

-77,013

-14,221

-41,278

-26,663

1,466

3,664

-2,977

2,996

REVENUE LOSS/GAIN

2nd Week

3/26

3/27

3/28

3/29

3/30

3/31

4/1

by Media (estimates)

Wed

Thurs

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tues

Network TV

27,501

699

1,528

4,269

6,580

9,968

1,620

2,837

Cable News

-10,848

-2,200

-1,957

-1,687

-1,659

-1,286

-1,230

-829

Cable Other

23,271

3,139

2,709

3,836

2,180

3,380

2,991

5,036

Spot TV

29,816

3,379

3,167

3,411

5,676

5,690

4,661

3,833

Spanish Language Network TV

1,429

-182

872

651

329

521

-481

-281

Total of Week 2

71,169

4,833

6,319

10,480

13,106

18,273

7,561

10,596

First 2 weeks of the Iraq War

REVENUE LOSS/GAIN

Cumu-
lative

Wed

Thurs

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tues

by Media (estimates)

Network TV

-26,095

-9,428

-20,839

-10,280

5,848

10,453

-2,544

696

Cable News

-28,473

-3,526

-5,613

-4,948

-3,979

-4,073

-3,926

-2,408

Cable Other

33,187

4,549

2,806

3,474

2,889

5,279

5,220

8,969

Spot TV

21,256

145

-9,273

-3,239

10,039

9,497

7,076

7,011

Spanish Language Network TV

-5,720

-1,128

-2,041

-1,190

-224

781

-1,243

-675

First 2 weeks of the Iraq War

-5,844

-9,388

-34,959

-16,183

14,573

21,937

4,584

13,592

Source: CMR
Note: Dollar estimates are presented in $000. Figures are based on comparison of data from 3/20/02-3/26/02 and 3/19/03-3/25/03 for Week 1 of Iraq War and 3/27/02-4/2/02 and 3/26/03-4/1/03 for Week 2 of Iraq War.

-Toni Fitzgerald is a staff writer for Media Life.

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