|
|
for web ad spending
Forecast: 2002 gains will nearly reach 2000 peak
By Marty Beard
Spending on interactive advertising will rebound this year, nearly reaching the peak levels of 2000 leading up to the dot.com crash.
So forecasts eMarketer, the interactive research group, based on its analyses of data and forecasts from a range media research firms.
"Although 2001 was a rough year for all media categories, online advertising is poised for a significant bounce-bank, with 11 percent growth for this year alone," says eMarketer CEO Geoffrey Ramsey.
EMarketer is forecasting that online ad spending will reach $8.1 billion this year, bringing it to just under the $8.2 billion that was spent in 2000.
In 2001, with the collapse of the dot.com ad market, spending fell to $7.3 billion, a decline of 11 percent.
The research group is forecasting that with the recovery of the ad economy, online advertising will continue to grow at a steady pace, reaching $13.5 billion in 2005.
EMarketer cites four causes that it believes are driving the recovery and future growth of online ad spending.
One is the ever-growing internet audience.
The number of internet users around the world is expected to grow by 19 percent a year, reaching 709.1 million by the year 2004, more than double the 352 million that were online in 2000.
In North America, there will be 184.5 million online in 2004, up from 108.1 million in 2000, a 71 percent gain, representing a 14.3 percent annual growth rate.
As the report says, "Size matters." As more and more people become internet users, the more effective and efficient the internet becomes as a means for advertisers to reach consumers.
Second, eMarketer posits that the spread of high-speed internet access will fuel an online ad-spending surge.
Some 6.2 million households had high-speed access in 2000, which accounted for 12.7 percent of all internet access. By 2004, 34.7 million are projected to have it, representing 44.9 percent of the online population.
The faster access will enable advertisers to deliver more ads to more users and in more engaging formats.
"The faster pages load, the more people spend time online, the more they do, and the more they view," the report says.
Advertisers will increase their spending to reach the growing population of broadband users, who are more affluent than dial-up users and therefore a more desirable demographic.
Third, more people are predicted to be shopping online in coming years.
"Large traditional advertisers can no longer ignore the market fundamentals: a growing internet user base that is spending more of their total media time online and a purchasing group we project will rise from 58 million last year to nearly 70 million by year-end 2002."
Ninety million people will be purchasing goods online by the year 2004, compared to 42 million in 2000.
"Hit ’em where they shop, as they shop, with ads targeted to their indicated interests," the report proposes.
Finally, the report suggests that as better online advertising standards and measurements are established, leading to a better understanding of who their ads are reaching, advertisers will become more willing to increase the amounts they spend on the web.
|
Comparative Estimates: Projections for U.S. Online
Advertising Spending Growth, 2002 |
||
| Analyst or research firm |
Forecast Date |
% chg |
| McCann Erickson |
Dec. 2001 |
0.0 |
| Morgan Stanley |
Nov. 2001 |
0.0 |
| Yankee Group |
2001 |
3.5 |
| Goldman Sachs |
Dec. 2001 |
4.1 |
| Rishad Tobaccowala, CEO, Starcom IP |
Nov. 2001 |
5.5 |
| Veronis Suhler |
July 2001 |
8.0 |
| Lehman Bros. |
Nov. 2001 |
10.0 |
| Smith Barney |
Sept. 2001 |
10.2 |
| eMarketer |
Dec. 2001 |
11.0 |
| Merrill Lynch |
Sept. 2001 |
12.3 |
| Fortune (survey of ad executives) |
Nov. 2001 |
12.5 |
| Myers Group |
Oct. 20001 |
12.8 |
| Zenith Media |
Sept. 2001 |
13.0 |
| Adams Media Research |
May 2001 |
18.4 |
| Jupiter Research |
Nov. 2001 |
19.3 |
| International Data Corporation (IDC) |
Nov. 2001 |
20.5 |
| Forrester Research |
Nov. 2001 |
23.3 |
| Gartner G2 |
Dec. 2001 |
44.3 |
|
Source: eMarketer |
||
March 28, 2002 © 2002 Media Life
-Marty Beard is a staff writer for Media Life.
Printer-Friendly
Version | Send
to a Friend
Cover Page | Contact
Us
