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speedier ad recovery
Poll finds many believe it is already underway
By Gene Ely
It's been hard to miss the headlines over recent weeks reporting that the nation's economy is finally recovering from the recession, and doing so at a pace far quicker than many economists had predicted.
What's been less clear is how quickly the media economy, the spending of client dollars on advertising, would rebound. Conventional wisdom tells us that the media economy tends to lag the general economy during a recovery, often by a quarter of a year.
In search of an answer to this question, we at Media Life turned to our readers with a poll we posted on the site last week. Who better to tell us the mood of the media marketplace, and most importantly of their clients, regarding the timing of a recovery in ad spending than the very people who place advertising?
We were surprised by some of the answers, having heard so much gloomy talk since the beginning of the year.
The first question we raised was: "When will the ad economy recover?"
Some 45 percent of the 154 people who took the survey checked the answer: "Second-half 2002, but it will be modest, only really picking up in ’03."
That's consistent with what media analysts have been forecasting.
Only a small percentage of respondents agreed that it would come back quickly in second-half 2002, and an equally small percentage agreed that the media economy would not come back until 2004.
Here's what surprised us. Almost 38 percent of respondents agreed with the statement: "I’m already seeing signs of a rebound."
We were also surprised by responses to our second question: "What do you see as the leading factors hindering a recovery in the ad economy?" Respondents were invited to choose more than one answer.
"The weakened national economy" was checked by 29.5 percent of the poll takers.
A higher percentage, 31.5, cited "the ongoing restructuring of American businesses."
But the highest response by far, 65.8 percent, was: "An unwillingness of major advertisers to spend until they are sure the economy has recovered."
Of course, there are all sorts of ways one could interpret the above responses.
But as we read them, along with comments respondents were invited to make elsewhere in the poll, the sense among the media planners and buyers who are our readers is that the ad recovery is already underway.
This is further supported by reports from media analysts over recent days that ad spending is in fact up in a number of categories.
The survey produced some other interesting results.
Readers feel that broadcast TV will lead the recovery, followed by cable and radio, with magazines and newspapers lagging.
Categories that will lead the recovery are drugs and remedies, followed by financial and automotive, with apparel lagging along with media and advertising.
March 20, 2002 © 2002 Media Life
-Gene Ely is editor and publisher of Media Life.
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