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ABC's got big hurts
In fourth place and facing an even deeper slide
By Kevin Downey
There’s perhaps only one ratings prediction for the February sweeps that’s still tough to call.
ABC is almost assured a last-place finish in the month-long ratings contest used by local affiliates to negotiate advertising rates. The sweeps began last night and conclude on Feb. 27.
But the question is, just how badly will ABC do?
The network is going into the sweeps in fourth place for the season with a 3.9 adult 18-49 rating to CBS and Fox’s 4.0 and NBC’s 4.7.
Moreover, ABC fell six-tenths of a point behind CBS in the November sweeps and more than a full rating point behind Fox and NBC.
The network competition is unusually tough this month, moreover, because of the Olympics on NBC and the Super Bowl on Fox this Sunday.
As a result, NBC and Fox are expected to get significant ratings increases.
"It’ll be NBC and then maybe Fox in adults 18-49," says Shari Anne Brill, vice president and director of programming services at Carat.
"Even though CBS often comes in fourth place, I would predict it will come in third, followed by ABC."
NBC will easily rank No. 1 because of its 17-day coverage of the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics, which begins Feb. 8 and runs through the closing ceremonies on Feb. 24.
The network has reportedly told advertisers it expects something in the order of an average 17 household rating, although most media buyers think it may end up slightly lower.
"The Olympics are uniquely positioned to be a ratings smash," says John Rash, senior vice president and director of broadcast negotiations at Campbell Mithun.
"That’s because of the dynamics of live telecasts from American soil, a patriotic attitude that can manifest itself in cheering for American athletes, and a more positive look at globalism."
And the Super Bowl will air in the sweeps for the first time ever, although the schedule for future games assures that this will happen more frequently in coming years.
Super Bowl XXXVI will skew Fox’s average rating for the sweeps.
"The Super Bowl should accomplish near-typical Super Bowl ratings, although this match-up has not seemed to overly grab the national attention," says Rash.
Even if Fox falls short of the 131 million viewers who tuned into at least part of last year’s game, it will give the network a major platform to promote upcoming programs, including "Malcolm in the Middle," which gets the coveted hour following the game.
Unlike most sweeps, when the networks roll out major specials and movies, ABC and the other networks aren’t rolling out as many of their best programs because of the tough competition.
ABC’s sweeps lineup will consist mostly of multiple episodes of its highest-rated shows, with a few movies and special editions of programs like "Who Wants to be a Millionaire."
"ABC’s sights seem to be appropriately set on fall development under their new programming executives," says Rash.
CBS will rely heavily on its highest-rated programs, like "Everybody Loves Raymond" and "CSI," to fuel its sweeps ratings. It also has the "Grammy Awards" this month along with "The Rosa Parks Story."
Meanwhile, both UPN and the WB will mostly run their regular lineups with guest stars and a few specials. The smaller networks are generally less affected by the Olympics because they target a younger audience.
February 1, 2002 © 2002 Media Life
-Kevin
Downey is a staff writer for Media Life.
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