Why some hit shows survive syndication

Fox's 'Malcolm in the Middle'

'It seems that one major exception is the shows that started out low-rated and became hits later on. A lot of people may not have seen the first couple of seasons.'

NBC's 'Will & Grace'

Why some hit shows
survive syndication

Fourth fend off decline, and a new study tells why

By Kevin Downey

     Can the likes of "Will & Grace" and "Malcolm in the Middle" defy conventional wisdom and remain network hits when they begin their simultaneous runs in syndication next season?
   The shows, along with about eight other network programs currently on the air, became available for syndication next season at last week’s National Association of Television Program Executives conference.
    For sure, the odds are stacked against them.
    The thinking among media buyers is that a hit show loses its appeal--and value--when it’s suddenly available five or six nights a week at various times of the day.
    But this is not always the case, as it turns out, according to a report released this week by Magna Global USA.
    About 76 percent of network shows since 1987 that simultaneously ran in syndication have suffered ratings declines of up to 60 percent in the first year of running off-network.
    But a quarter of such shows do not go into decline.
     "The odds are three-to-one against, but there are mitigating factors that cause some shows to do as well or better once they go into syndication," says Steve Sternberg, senior vice president and director of audience analysis at Magna.
   A handful of shows, like NBC’s "Friends" and CBS’s "Everybody Loves Raymond," are having some of their most successful years in network primetime even as episodes from earlier seasons are repeated widely in syndication.
    "Friends," for example, is a top-10 show in syndication and a top-10 cable show most weeks among adults 18-49 for its TBS episodes. Yet its primetime audience on NBC is up about 23 percent this season, to 24 million.
    "Raymond’s" network rating has gone up 1 percent this season, even as it has become a breakout hit in its first year in syndication. The sitcom is the only new syndicated program to rank among the top-10.
    Shows in recent years that got a similar boost vary from "Seinfeld" to "Full House" to "The X-Files."
   So how exactly can a media buyer predict whether a show might buck that trend and hold its value?
    It comes down to a few factors, says Sternberg.
    It helps if the network gives a show a break and moves it to a less competitive time slot. And having a late night run in syndication gives a show a better chance, as it did for "Seinfeld" and "Frasier."
    But the shows with the best chance of holding up in primetime while being syndicated are those that started their network run as bombs or something near to it.
    "It seems that one major exception is the shows that started out low-rated and became hits later on. A lot of people may not have seen the first couple of seasons."
    In syndication, they have a built-in audience for their earlier episodes.
    "There don’t seem to be any patterns other than those few exceptions," says Sternberg. "It’s true for dramas, sitcoms, reality shows, male-oriented, female-oriented, and teen-oriented shows."
    Whether a show holds up in primetime also has to do with whether it’s already losing viewers or whether its ratings are on the upswing.
    Of the 54 primetime series that had simultaneous syndication runs since 1987, 32 had already been in decline.
    The fate of a show like "Dharma & Greg," as a result, is not good.
    That show’s audience is already down 37 percent this season, and it’s unlikely to get a boost if it ends up on network and in syndication next season.
    A full 81 percent of shows that had already had ratings declines continued to falter when repeats began in syndication.
    That compares to only 68 percent of the 22 shows that had flat or better ratings going into syndication.
    Shows on the air now, like Fox’s "That '70s Show," which has maintained much of its audience this season, stand a far better chance of eluding the fateful deathblow of a syndication run.

TV SHOWS ON NETWORK & SYNDICATION Off-Network Syndication Impact on Primetime Shows
Network Shows with Decreasing Ratings	Year Syndicated	% Chg Prior Year	% Chg First Year in Syndication
3rd Rock from the Sun	1999	-17	4
A Diff'rent World	1991	-17	-13
Boy Meets World	1997	-8	-14
Buffy the Vampire Slayer	2001	-14	6
Coach	1994	-2	-45
Cosby	1988	-16	-12
Dr. Quinn: Medicine Woman	1996	-18	-1
Drew Carey	1999	-10	-6
Empty Nest	1993	-10	-11
Family Matters	1993	-13	8
Frasier	1997	-13	9
Golden Girls	1990	-6	-17
Grace Under Fire	1997	-18	-32
Home Improvement	1995	-1	-16
In the Heat of the Night	1993	-8	-17
Jamie Foxx	2000	-20	-5
Living Single	1997	-7	-22
Mad About You	1996	-27	6
Martin	1996	-24	-2
Matlock	1992	-22	-7
Moesha	2000	-4	-4
Nash Bridges	2000	-1	0
Night Court	1988	-8	-32
Northern Exposure	1994	-12	-10
NYPD Blue	1997	-16	-5
Profiler	1999	-3	-11
Rescue 911	1994	-3	-21
Sabrina	2000	-20	-60
Spin City	2000	-15	-1
The Nanny	1998	-12	-20
The Simpsons	1994	-6	-21
Walker, Texas Ranger	1997	-4	-15
Network Shows with Increasing Ratings	Year Syndicated	% Chg Prior Year	% Chg First Year in Syndication
7th Heaven	2000	0	4
America's Most Wanted	1995	19	-18
Beverly Hills 90210	1994	8	7
Cheers	1987	21	-12
Cops	1993	21	-14
ER	1998	6	-14
Everybody Loves Raymond	2001	17	1
Fresh Prince	1994	0	-27
Friends	1998	2	-4
Full House	1991	1	20
Growing Pains	1988	5	-23
Just Shoot Me	2001	51	-14
King of the Hill	2001	11	-18
Married…with Children	1991	3	-2
Murphy Brown	1993	0	-10
Roseanne	1992	12	5
Seinfeld	1995	3	10
Sister Sister	1998	10	-20
Steve Harvey	2001	0	-17
The Practice	2001	14	-26
The X-Files	1997	6	8
Who's the Boss?	1988	3	-6
Source: Magna Global USA, 2002

-Kevin Downey is a staff writer for Media Life.

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