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on a Rams rout
Boon for buyers with 2nd-half spots if Pats score
By Carl Bialik
Odds are heavily stacked that Sunday's Super Bowl game on Fox will stumble as so many have before it, leading to a rout in which the powerful St. Louis Rams cleat-walk across the backs of the New England Patriots.
The Rams are 14-point favorites, and a Rams rout would kill much of TV viewing beyond halftime.
But that outcome is hardly assured.
If it goes the other way, what began as a bargain Super Bowl for advertisers is bound to make some media buyers look like geniuses--those who gambled on the second half.
An upset would keep existing viewers in their chairs through the second half and pull more in, which would boost ratings handsomely.
And an upset remains a strong possibility. The Rams are also an inconsistent bunch, prone to stumbling and letting lesser mortals keep games close.
Just two years ago the Rams nearly lost the Super Bowl to Tennessee, and the game was a heart-tugger right to the end, with millions tuning in.
In contrast, the Patriots are a known commodity. They will play solid defense and employ a balanced offensive attack.
Analysts are optimistic that the game will be close, despite the large point spread in favor of the Rams.
"I'm expecting ratings to be strong," says Don Hinchey, director of creative services at The Bonham Group, a sports-consulting firm.
"Both teams bring a lot to the game. The Rams have a lot of sex appeal, figuratively speaking. With quarterback Kurt Warner and running back Marshall Faulk, they generate excitement and have the ability to score at any moment.
"The Patriots bring a Cinderella story to the game," Hinchey continues. "They weren't expected to be there. They have just been the surprise team all year."
Fox football analyst Terry Bradshaw outlined the possible scenarios in a conference call with the press on Wednesday.
"If the Rams play as good as they can play, they win the football game," Bradshaw says. "But if they stumble and New England plays their best football, then you could have what you had last week in Pittsburgh. Special teams and turnovers always make the difference."
Those two areas are the Rams' main weaknesses. They led the NFL in turnovers during the regular season and had a -10 turnover margin, while New England's turnover margin was +7.
In last week's AFC Championship game between New England and Pittsburgh, the Patriots beat the nine-point-favorite Steelers, 24-17, largely on the strength of two special-teams' touchdowns and forcing four turnovers while yielding none.
The Patriots and Rams have faced off once before this season, a 24-17 win by the Rams on Nov. 18. In that game, the Patriots were up 10-7 and were on the verge of extending their lead to 10 when a fumble at the end of the first half let the Rams seize control of the game.
Hinchey foresees a similar outcome on Sunday in New Orleans. He predicts a 24-17 Rams win but notes, "I think the Patriots are definitely going to make a game of it."
"I think it should be a terrific game," says John Mansell, senior analyst with Kagan World Media. "The Rams are an offensive powerhouse. It's likely to make the game very exciting.
"Certainly the last time the Rams were in the Super Bowl against the Tennessee Titans, it was a great game."
That game, in 2000, was one of the all-time-great Super Bowls. The Rams beat the Titans, 23-16, after the final Tennessee drive fell a yard short of the end zone.
If this year's game's competitiveness can approach that one's, then second-half advertisers will have a great bargain on their hands.
But then, for this year's game it was a buyer's market all around. Thirty-second slots reportedly averaged approximately $2 million, down slightly from last year's average and down sharply from 2000's dot.com-ad-heavy game.
And even in the final days, a couple of spots remain unsold, Fox Sports president Ed Goren told a conference call yesterday.
"Our sales guys say we're going to be sold out," Goren added.
Some media reports have suggested that ad sales were slow because advertisers feared the light-hearted tone typical of Super Bowl ads wouldn't play after the Sept. 11 attacks, but it seems more likely that the slow ad economy is the main culprit behind the slow ad sales.
Hinchey doubts viewers will fault Super Bowl advertisers.
"I believe people are looking to sports, and particularly to major sports events, as a vehicle for unification of the country," he says. "In times of stress, people like to get together. This is a spot where the Super Bowl can deliver."
He adds, "I think those advertisers who sat out the Super Bowl may have missed out on an opportunity here."
Fox, mindful of the post-Sept. 11 climate, will make the broadcast more somber and patriotic than usual.
Goren says the original plan for the three-hour pregame show was a Mardi Gras parade from the river to the stadium, with the rambunctious Fox pregame crew broadcasting from a float.
"Once we got to Sept. 11, all of that had to go out the window, for security reasons and just the mood of the country," Goren says. "Unlike a normal pregame show from New Orleans, we're going to have less of New Orleans and a lot more patriotic flavor."
The pregame show, now entitled "Heroes, Hope and Homeland," will include a performance of Aaron Copland's "Lincoln Portrait" featuring the Boston Pops and readings by Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George H. Bush, Bill Clinton and Nancy Reagan.
It will also include a reading of the Declaration of Independence, set to John Williams' music and read by "current and former NFL greats, hand-chosen for their extraordinary service to team and country," according to the press release.
As for the game itself, while analysts and broadcasters are spreading hope for a good game ahead of the Super Bowl, before last week's championship games the Rams-Patriots did not look like the stuff of an appealing game.
In response to a Sports Business Daily poll last week, 9.6 percent of respondents said the Rams-Patriots was the matchup that would provide the best ratings for Fox–fewer than voted for any other possible matchup.
Fox hopes that if, in a worst-case scenario, the Rams juggernaut is in top form and blows the game open early, viewers will stay tuned for the halftime show, headlined by U2 (NBC, meanwhile, counterprograms with a special edition of "Fear Factor" featuring Playboy Playmates).
Another factor that may keep viewers tuned in is the impending departure from Fox of longtime play-by-play man Pat Summerall. The Super Bowl will be Summerall's last game teamed with color analyst John Madden, his partner of 21 years.
Goren was coy about how this might play into the broadcast, but he did say, "I'd suggest every Nielsen set stay on right through the postgame show. Otherwise you might miss a very special moment."
All in all, Goren was sanguine about ratings for the game, and with good reason. The ratings for all three rounds of the playoffs on Fox have been up, an average of 8 percent, and viewership has been up 15 percent. He predicted the Super Bowl would also see a viewership increase, completing the sweep for Fox.
"I like the idea of a Super Bowl with St. Louis and a Cinderella," Goren says. "You can't have two Cinderellas, but can have one. Obviously you go in hoping it's a competitive game, but I think the numbers will hold off regardless."
All this good news should have Goren feeling chipper, but he says, "I should be feeling great, but I don't." The NBA's recent cable-heavy TV deal was a "red flag," he says, indicating sports' presence on free TV may be near its end.
"Unless the economics change a bit, there are troubled seas ahead," Goren says. "Television sports is very healthy with respect to viewership now. But at some point a bean counter is going to say, 'Yes Ed, we understand that, but at what price?'"
January 31, 2002 © 2002 Media Life
-Carl Bialik is a New York writer and a contributor to Media Life.
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