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it's tried and true
Bets on safe plays like 'Dr. Phil' and 'Millionaire'
By Kevin Downey
The syndicated television market is in no condition for experimentation or attempts at forcing the next big genre.
That certainly makes sense, considering that the industry is in the midst of a years-long rating and ad-revenue slide notable for more bombs than hits.
So it's no surprise that when it comes to the new shows the betting is especially conservative among media people who attended last week’s National Association of Television Program Executives conference, the annual marketplace for the buying and selling of syndicated shows.
Topping the list of those safe bets are "Dr. Phil," which is essentially a spin-off of "Oprah," and the syndicated versions of "Who Wants to be a Millionaire" and "Weakest Link," which premiered last month.
"The biggest issue for syndication is that this year was very sluggish on the ad sales side," says Bill Carroll, vice president and director of programming for the Katz Television Group.
"The reaction to a difficult sales environment has been different, depending on the company. But universally there’s been a concern that television stations are less able to come up with significant license fees for unproven shows."
Most new shows that are expected to come out in the 2002-03 season reflect a return to what works.
"A lot of the programs are outgrowths of particular station needs," says Carroll.
"When you do that, it doesn’t guarantee success. But it means that a show is being aimed at a particular need instead of trying to artificially create a need."
A new version of the game show, "Pyramid," is in the works.
ABC’s short-lived variety show, "The Wayne Brady Show," featuring one of the cast members of "Whose Line," will be reborn as a syndicated program.
"Caroline Rhea" will take over once "Rosie O’Donnell" leaves this summer.
"Life Moments" takes the successful "A Wedding Story" and "A Baby Story" real-life concept from cable’s TLC and brings it to broadcast stations.
Programs like "The John Walsh Show" and "The Rob Nelson Show," which can be seen as innovative for their focus on single-issue discussions, can trace their format back to syndication’s better years, when Phil Donahue invented the style.
And even the most untested formats have their grounding in past hits.
"Beyond with James Van Praagh," for example, reworks one of last year’s few successful new syndicated concepts, "Crossing Over with John Edward," a program that also runs on the Sci-Fi cable network and has been renewed for a second season in syndication.
"Usually you don’t see a genre come up until you have one successful hit and then all of a sudden the genre’s there, like the court TV shows and the game shows," says Deana Myers, an analyst for Paul Kagan Associates.
John Edward is also developing a scripted drama for Studios USA, which distributes his "Crossing Over."
Syndication’s low-risk approach this year coincides with a brutal advertising economy, which has hurt all media types, and has resulted in an 8 percent drop, to $2.46 billion, in ad revenue for syndicated TV through November, according to Nielsen Monitor-Plus.
Syndication has been further hurt by steep ratings declines.
Six of this season’s top-10 shows, in fact, have lower ratings than they did last year.
The three programs with ratings increases include "Entertainment Tonight," "Seinfeld" and "Friends." The latter two had ratings rebounds that some media buyers peg to a return to the familiar, stemming from the tragedies of Sept. 11.
Like "Seinfeld" and "Friends," "Everybody Loves Raymond" is an off-network show and was the only new syndicated program to make this season’s top-10.
Upcoming off-network shows include ABC’s "Dharma & Greg," CBS’s "King of Queens," Fox’s "Malcolm in the Middle," and NBC’s "Will & Grace."
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Syndication Market 2002-2003 Off-Network & First-Run Programs |
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| Off-Network Shows | Distributor |
| Becker | Paramount |
| Dharma & Greg | Twentieth TV |
| Family Guy | Twentieth TV |
| For Your Love | Warner Bros. |
| Futurama | Twentieth TV |
| Hughleys, The | Twentieth TV |
| King of Queens | Columbia TriStar |
| Larry Sanders Show, The | Columbia TriStar |
| Malcolm in the Middle | Twentieth TV |
| Parkers, The | Paramount |
| Road Rules | October Moon |
| That '70s Show | Carsey-Werner |
| Will & Grace | Warner Bros. |
| First-Run Shows | Distributor |
| B.A.I.T. | NBC Ent. |
| Beyond With James Van Praagh | Tribune Ent. |
| Dr. Phil | King World |
| John Walsh Show, The | NBC Ent. |
| John Woo's Once a Thief | October Moon |
| Life Moments | Paramount |
| Pyramid | Columbia TriStar |
| Rob Nelson Show, The | Twentieth TV |
| Wayne Brady Show, The | Buena Vista TV |
| We, the Jury | Telco Prods. |
| Weakest Link | NBC Ent. |
| Who Wants to Be a Millionaire | Buena Vista TV |
January 29, 2002 © 2002 Media Life
-Kevin Downey is a staff writer for Media Life.
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