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spots. Such a deal.
Sales are slow for Fox, but the value is there
By Carl Bialik
With observers following their every move, their numbers dwindle each week as the Super Bowl approaches.
We are talking, of course, about unsold ads.
While New England, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and St. Louis prepare for the conference championships this weekend and hope to make the big game, the game that media-watchers follow concerns the sale of Super Bowl ads.
This year it's a game almost as dull as a typical Super Bowl game itself.
Sales are slow for Fox, with a number of the 60 spots unsold just a week and some before the game, amid reports that the average price for a 30-second spot is coming in under $2 million.
If this average holds, this will be the first Super Bowl ever for which TV ad prices dropped. CBS averaged $2.1 million per ad last year.
Indeed, the average price is likely to drop below $2 million as Fox slashes prices on the remaining spots. The network is well behind schedule; all the ads are usually sold by two weeks before the game.
Analysts blamed the slow sales on the weak ad economy. Some suggested companies would be wise to snap up one of the remaining spots, as this year's Super Bowl is likely to be buoyed to high ratings by a compelling matchup and patriotic fervor.
A post-Sept. 11 cancellation of a weekend of NFL games has affected the ad sales. The Super Bowl will be played a week later than expected, only five days before the start of the Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, to be carried by NBC.
According to Sportsbusiness Journal's Andy Bernstein, some advertisers are shunning the Super Bowl in favor of the patriotic ad potential of the Olympics.
"There's some feeling on advertisers' part that in a weak economy and challenging time for the country, a Super Bowl ad will be perceived by the public and Wall Street as being wasteful," writes Bernstein. "Conversely, an Olympic buy is viewed as patriotic."
That's nonsense, says Brad Adgate, senior vice president of research at Horizon Media.
He points out that the 1991 Super Bowl, played during the Gulf War, is remembered for jets flying overhead and for Whitney Houston's patriotic rendition of the Star-Spangled Banner.
In addition, at the 1981 Super Bowl, a yellow ribbon was tied around the SuperDome to mark the release of the American hostages who had been held in Iran.
"It's an opportunity to show the colors," Adgate says of the Super Bowl.
Mindful of this, the league plans to play up the patriotic theme this year, according to Marc Ganis, president of sports consulting firm Sportscorp Ltd.
"The NFL and Fox are focusing on making this a very patriotic event, from pregame entertainment to the halftime show to participation by former presidents to the likely participation of President Bush," Ganis says.
"There will be a real effort to make this Super Bowl a broadcast that transcends the game and even the Super Bowl and becomes a very American event."
Analysts are also excited about the potential Super Bowl matchup of the St. Louis Rams and the Pittsburgh Steelers, the two favorites going into this weekend's conference championship games.
"There would be an expectation that the game will be close, and the Rams are the most dynamic team in the NFL, by far," Ganis says. "That will help enhance the ratings."
Rob Frydlewicz, research head at FCB, agrees that a St. Louis-Pittsburgh pairing would be ideal, and not only because he is from Pittsburgh.
"Pittsburgh is considered one of the classic football teams," Frydlewicz says. "And St. Louis certainly has its following with its quarterback," two-time MVP Kurt Warner.
End-of-game ratings are the hardest to predict; they largely depend on whether the game is a blowout or remains undecided until the end. Most recent contests have fallen into the first category, but analysts salivate at the prospect of a Rams appearance because, in the 2000 Super Bowl, St. Louis beat Tennessee in one of the most thrilling editions of the game ever.
The late-game ratings also depend on what programming follows the game.
Last year, CBS heavily hyped a premier of "Survivor: The Australian Outback" to follow the game. Despite an ugly, lopsided game, "Survivor" rated a 23.6/38, the second-best for Super Bowl programs over the last 15 years.
Frydlewicz thinks this year's offering by Fox, an episode of the sitcom "Malcolm in the Middle," is less compelling.
Still, after years of analyzing the Super Bowl, Frydlewicz would recommend it to the right media buyer.
"It's a great venue for introducing new campaigns," he says. "The media give you so much additional coverage, as well. If you have a hefty budget, it's worth going into."
Ganis also says he would recommend buying ad time.
"There is no other event that draws as many television viewers consistently," he says. "It's a unique way to reach the largest audience possible at one time."
January 24, 2002 © 2002 Media Life
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Carl Bialik is a New York writer and a regular contributor to Media Life.
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