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for '02 elections
Major races and mucho contested seats to fill
By Gabriel Spitzer
Certain careers are simply recession-proof. Morticians, tollbooth attendants and liquor-store owners enjoy a measure of job security that endures precisely through harsh times such as these.
Add one more: politicians.
The economy may be ailing, but this is an election year, which means candidates, parties and issue advocacy groups will be raising money for races. Most of this money will be spent on spot TV.
It has already begun, and there's every indication that political ad spending will be way up again, recession or no.
"It’s obvious that spending in this particular cycle will shatter all previous records for off-year elections," says Evan Tracey, president of Campaign Media Analysis Group, a Washington, D.C.-based firm that monitors election advertising.
The biggest reason to expect an ad-drenched election year is that the stakes are enormously high this cycle.
With an evenly divided Senate and a scant six seats determining control of the House of Representatives, both parties will doubtless be spending heavily to take back the Congress.
Moreover, about three-fourths of the nation’s governorships are up for election this year, and Democrats think they may be able to regain the majority from the GOP.
According to the Television Bureau of Advertising, candidates, parties and advocates spent just shy of $500,000 in the top 75 markets in 1998. This year’s total will almost certainly exceed that.
"I don’t think the economy is going to have an effect on this particular category. We saw some healthy spending in 2001, and I think that will continue in 2002," says Harold Simpson, vice president of research and development at the TVB. Simpson says the TVB will soon release its predicted totals for political ad spending in 2002.
It may seem like the 2000 races ended just yesterday, but candidates have already begun airing ads for the 2002 election.
"It actually began last year for the 2002 races. The starting gun has already sounded, and some people have jumped it," says Tracey.
Gubernatorial candidates in Texas, Illinois and Oklahoma began running ads last month, while ads began running in January in Pennsylvania and Alabama.
The conventional wisdom is that the parties will focus their efforts on about 30 House races and about a dozen Senate races. CMAG’s Tracey suspects that the battlefield will be somewhat broader.
"There’s going to be a boatload of contested House races. I think that number is going to be more like 50," he says.
A number of states will host governor’s races, plus contested House and Senate races. They include Florida, California, Louisiana, Michigan and North Carolina.
"Perfect storm" markets, where multiple contested races converge, will likely be flooded with campaign money come autumn. They include Chicago, Denver, Boston, Minneapolis, Des Moines, Atlanta and Portland, Maine.
"If you’re a voter there, don’t burn out early," advises Tracey.
One variable that could affect the overall level of spending is the status of campaign finance reform legislation.
"The likelihood is that the campaign finance bill will be considered by the House in early March. There’s a reasonable chance that it will be passed this year," says Paul Taylor of the Alliance for Better Campaigns, a nonprofit in Washington, D.C., that advocates free broadcast airtime for candidates.
"The McCain-Feingold bill would end the practice of giving parties unlimited soft money checks, many of which end up spent on political ads."
Taylor estimates that at least 20 percent of the political advertising in 2000 was paid for by "soft money," the loosely regulated donations to parties and issue-advocacy groups. He says the Republicans currently have an edge over the Democrats in terms of "soft money" fundraising this election cycle.
However, even if McCain-Feingold passes this spring, it may be too late to affect the 2002 election.
"If the bill does pass, what happens to the hundreds of millions of dollars of soft money the Democrats and Republicans have already raised in this election cycle? I would guess they’ll be able to spend that money," Taylor says.
One consequence of a bumper year in election spending is that in contested markets, political advertising will likely put a squeeze on inventory, driving up prices for non-political advertisers. This, of course, happens every election year, but it may be doubly felt this year by companies with shrunken ad budgets.
"In the even-numbered years, there tends to be an increase in demand and inflation in September and October," says Chris Geraci, director of national TV buying at OMD/BBDO.
"It’s one of the supply-and-demand variables. But whether or not this year it has more of an effect, I don’t know. It may be a bit of a healthier market for the suppliers come the fall. If that’s the case, this will only add to the strength for them."
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Presidential & Congressional Election Years |
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Network TV |
Station TV |
Total |
| 1970 |
260,900 |
11,789,000 |
12,049,900 |
| 1972 |
6,519,100 |
18,061,000 |
24,580,100 |
| 1974 |
1,486,200 |
21,781,600 |
23,267,800 |
| 1976 |
7,906,500 |
42,935,700 |
50,842,200 |
| 1978 |
1,065,800 |
56,545,000 |
57,610,800 |
| 1980 |
20,699,700 |
69,870,300 |
90,570,000 |
| 1982 |
861,900 |
122,760,300 |
123,622,200 |
| 1984 |
43,652,500 |
110,171,500 |
153,824,000 |
| 1986 |
459,300 |
161,184,000 |
161,643,300 |
| 1988 |
38,520,700 |
189,379,500 |
227,900,200 |
| 1990 |
------ |
203,313,300 |
203,313,300 |
| 1992 |
73,816,000 |
225,807,400 |
299,623,400 |
| 1994 |
------ |
354,961,400 |
354,961,400 |
| 1996 |
33,824,000 |
366,661,900 |
400,485,900 |
| 1998 |
------ |
498,890,600 |
498,890,600 |
| 2000 |
772,600 |
605,233,100 |
606,005,700 |
| *
Includes candidate and on-ballot issue advertising. Off-ballot issues
not included. Source: CMR/MediaWatch, via Television Bureau of Advertising; Top 75 markets in station TV |
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January 18, 2002 © 2002 Media Life
-Gabriel Spitzer is a staff writer for
Media Life.
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