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worth pondering
Panel of gurus on what 2002 will likely bring
By Carl Bialik
Why would anyone make predictions, since they are remembered only when they are egregiously wrong?
Because predictions are great fun, especially when it comes to sports.
In that spirit, the Bonham Group, a sports and entertainment marketing firm, has dared to make a list of predictions about the sports and entertainment world for 2002, titled "Strange Brew for 2002" and released in early January.
In that same spirit, we here at Media Life attempted to ask some of our resident sports experts for their take on those predictions. Notice "attempted": the Super Bowl and the Olympics have been pleasant distractions.
By the time we could track everyone down, five of the Bonham predictions could be judged partially or totally against reality. Today we are running those five predictions, with comments.
Tomorrow you'll see the five predictions that have yet to be decided, plus one bonus prediction.
And next New Year's Day, you'll see just how many of these predictions turned out to be egregiously wrong, and how many forgettably right.
Here's our roster of experts:
Don Hinchey is director of creative services at the Bonham Group. Hinchey, who is understandably biased in favor of these predictions, was interviewed twice, once just after the predictions were released and again this week.
Marc Ganis is president of sports consulting firm Sportscorp Ltd.
Lynn Kahle is professor of sports marketing at the University of Oregon.
Matthew Bortz is managing director of the Bortz Media & Sports Group.
Here are the predictions:
Prediction one: The Super Bowl and Winter Olympics will showcase America’s patriotic fervor, soaking up sponsorship support and earning boffo viewership numbers at the expense of TV competitors like the NHL and NBA All-Star games.
Hinchey [earlier interview]:"I think they're going to be the beneficiaries of this patriotic wave that has engulfed America since Sept. 11. The Super Bowl is traditionally an opportunity for people to join together. It's become an American tradition for people to come together and watch the game in a group setting."
Reality check: Mostly wrong. Super Bowl ad prices were down more than 5 percent and ratings were flat, despite a terrific game and lots of patriotic touches. The winter Olympics are in progress, with ratings thus far exceeding expectations. Ratings for Friday's opening ceremonies were up 49 percent over the last winter Games. Ad sales for the Games were mostly strong. Yet the NBA All-Star Game also did well, with a rating increase of 61 percent from last year.
Ganis: "Certainly the Super Bowl was as patriotic a five-hour window as television has ever seen. It was no less patriotic and emotional at the game. Grown men were wiping tears away from their faces. I was one of them...NBC credited the higher ratings for the All-Star Game to the Olympic lead-in. I'll give credit to Michael Jordan."
Kahle: "The Super Bowl ads weren't as patriotic as I expected. I counted only two that I thought had an intentionally patriotic theme."
Hinchey [second interview]: "Patriotism has been a key component of both the Super Bowl and Olympic productions and it appears to have struck a resonant chord with both attendees and audiences. The ratings numbers reflect a rejuvenation in fan interest, which probably would have been even greater for the Super Bowl if last year's game had been closer."
Prediction two: Major League Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig will change his posture on contraction after using it as a bargaining chip to extract significant concessions from the Major League Baseball Players Association.
Hinchey [earlier interview]: "I do see [the players and owners] coming to some kind of agreement on revenue sharing, which will allow them to at least move in the direction of greater market parity. I don't believe there will be a delay in the start of the season."
Reality check: Mixed. Contraction is off the table for this year. But Selig still calls contraction at some point in the future "absolutely inevitable." And the Players Association has thus far made no significant concessions.
Ganis: "The owners are absolutely committed to contracting two teams. The players would have to agree to a lot to avoid contraction. The Players Association will be lucky to have contraction of only two teams. Quite a few owners want four teams contracted, and a few want six."
Kahle: "I'm going to guess in the long run that contraction won't happen."
Hinchey [second interview]: "Contraction appears to be moot at the moment. However, Bud Selig has already endured a lot of heat for proposing it and I don't believe he'll jettison it unless he's able to obtain meaningful concessions."
Prediction three: Confounding the doubters, including Dean Bonham, chairman of the Bonham Group, Michael Jordan will lead the Wizards to an early round of the playoffs and will regain the respect of Madison Avenue, receiving increased endorsement dollars from major corporate entities.
Hinchey [earlier interview]: "Jordan's presence on the court has given the league conversational value that it was sorely lacking. Some of the steam was starting to come out of his [endorsement] portfolio. Even superstars need a platform. Team management with the Wizards was not a good platform for Michael. His platform was on the court. That's where he can really showcase his ability and charisma--his mass appeal."
Reality check: Mostly right. The Wizards are 26-22 through Tuesday's games, and if the season ended today, they'd nab the sixth playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Jordan's endorsement portfolio remains strong, and he has picked up some new products to plug, including Nike's new $200 Air Jordan XVII sneakers. However, his recent endorsements for 1-800-COLLECT, Palm Pilots, and Gatorade have been duds, and the Nike spots include three young NBA stars instead of Jordan. The 38-year-old guard missed a wide-open dunk in the recent All-Star Game, and some experts have questioned whether his tired legs can still carry ad campaigns.
Ganis: "He certainly appears to be leading them into the playoffs. Will that lead to increased interest on Madison Avenue? I don't think so. But it adds to the legacy and legend that is Michael Jordan. He is the MVP of the NBA, hands down. He is the MVP not just on his team but clearly the MVP for the entire league."
Kahle: "Jordan certainly has regained respect and attention. If that prediction isn't already true, I have confidence in it. I think the Wizards will be in the playoffs."
Bortz: "That's a given. To me the interesting question is: How deep can he take the Wizards into the playoffs? I suspect he might be able to get them at least into the second round." [What about that missed dunk?] "He may need to start endorsing shoes with springs in them."
Prediction four: In an exciting prelude to the winter Olympics, viewership of this year’s winter X Games will surge and help the X Games be perceived as a "breakthrough event" for extreme sports with mainstream audiences and corporate sponsors.
Hinchey [earlier interview]: "The X Games come just before, so the timing by its nature creates a de facto introduction. They'll benefit from the exposure the Olympics are getting. That will help establish the X Games as a bona fide sports property that has mass appeal."
Reality check: Mixed. Ratings of the winter X Games surged, as they have almost every year. But the viewership remains relatively minuscule and so the event has not quite reached the mainstream. A Saturday broadcast on ABC netted a paltry 1.7 rating. Increased exposure to extreme winter sports at the Olympics should help the winter X Games image.
Ganis: "I don't think that's going to happen because the X Games are targeted to a core youth audience. The lion's share of the winter X Games are geared toward the 24-and-under audience, in a counterculture environment. To mainstream the X Games would be to cause them to lose their very identity."
Kahle: "The winter X Games were a good deal. In the key demographics especially, they attracted a lot of attention."
Prediction five: Tiger Woods will switch to Nike clubs, completing a marketing grand slam for the world’s premier footwear and apparel maker.
Hinchey [earlier interview]: "Nike has obviously been trying to leverage its involvement with Tiger Woods as much as it can. It recognizes it has a winner."
Reality check: Looking good. Woods used a Nike driver Jan. 31 at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. Nike hopes that as Woods tries out Nike's other clubs, he will abandon his Titleist clubs completely in favor of theirs.
Kahle: "It wouldn't surprise me."
Bortz: "A near certainty."
Hinchey [second interview]: "Where drivers come can clubs be far behind?"
Coming tomorrow: Predictions six through 10, and a bonus prediction.
February 13, 2002 © 2002 Media Life
-Carl Bialik is a New York writer and a regular contributor to Media Life.
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