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John Rash tells you.
Campbell-Mithun's TV maven picks seven hits
By Elizabeth White
With seven standout shows debuting this fall, it should be a banner year for network television, though not necessarily for all networks.
That’s what Campbell-Mithun’s director of broadcast negotiations, John Rash, predicts in his "Media Impressions" prospective for the 2001-02 TV season.
"There are 34 new programs this year, and there are at least seven that are above average in quality and in audience potential. That will make the 2001-02 season above average," says Rash.
Rash names as the most promising programs of the new season CBS’s "The Agency," "The Education of Max Bickford" and "Citizen Baines," Fox’s "24" and "Undeclared," NBC’s "Law and Order: Criminal Intent" and the WB’s "Smallville."
According to Rash, these shows are more than just well-made shows. They also are airing in time slots that will make them look good.
"They’re all creatively well-done, with room to maneuver," says Rash.
"And success in TV is relative. ‘Citizen Baines’ will not be a Nielsen top 10, but it should deliver solid ratings on Saturday night for CBS."
The same more-modest but still-solid expectations hold true for "Smallville," which is on the smaller WB network.
But despite this bumper crop of quality rookie shows, two networks are notably absent from Rash’s list of top shows: ABC and UPN.
UPN is missing almost by default. The network has only two new programs this year, and one, "Star Trek Enterprise," is still unavailable for preview.
ABC, on the other hand, has five new shows, but only one, "Alias," has attracted positive buzz going into the season.
"Qualitative success is measured against previous programs and the competitive landscape. ABC continues to have several programs that deserve credit, including the over-maligned ‘Who Wants to be a Millionaire.’
"But none of their new programs are as strong creatively, with the possible exception of ‘Alias,’" says Rash.
Rash predicts ABC's "Bob Patterson" will fall victim to the "Michael Richards"-syndrome and be hammered by critics until the network finally cancels it. "Richards," coincidentally starring another former cast member from "Seinfield," was widely marked for early death last season and died accordingly.
Rash believes Steven Bochco’s new drama, "Philly," will put viewers off by being overly graphic, while "According to Jim" and "Thieves" will put viewers off by being banal.
The network earning the highest creative marks from Rash is Fox, which introduced the single-camera sitcom craze with "Malcolm in the Middle" almost two years ago.
The major innovation this time is real-time pacing with the drama "24."
Rash calls the show a "fantastic thriller so compelling that it is the best new show of the year, if not several years."
Says Rash: "Fox continues to innovate, and after a period of creative drift, has refocused on its brand of edgy and irreverent dramas and comedies. The Fox viewing experience is the most consistent of all the networks."
"Pasadena" and "Bernie Mac" could also turn into moderate hits for Fox, but Rash predicts that the live-action comedy "The Tick" will be quickly canceled.
And a few other new shows, particularly those on NBC, will be modest hits simply by the numbers their time periods deliver.
"Programs that should be able to hold audiences via their time periods are ‘Bernie Mac,’ ‘Maybe It’s Me’ and ‘Men, Women & Dogs.’ But none of them will ascend to the top of the charts," says Rash.
"NBC will once again contend with not being able to develop a breakaway hit post-‘Frasier’ and ‘Friends.’
"‘Scrubs’ and ‘Inside Schwartz’ will do well because of their hammocked positions, but they’ll be hard-pressed to start off a time period on their own."
September 11, 2001 © 2001 Media Life
-Elizabeth White is a staff writer for Media Life.
