|
|
for Jordan redux
Turner's betting a 5.0 rating on tonight's game
By Elizabeth White
If this were last year’s NBA, tonight’s opening game on TBS between the Washington Wizards and the New York Knicks wouldn’t be much of a draw, especially with game three of the World Series running opposite it on Fox.
This isn’t last year.
Nor is it three years ago, when Michael Jordan left the NBA.
This is the year of Jordan’s great and long-touted comeback, and the story is no less compelling than that of the rise of the Arizona Diamondbacks. An old master returns to his game to face off against the youngsters who have risen as stars in his absence.
Several of those younger players are now good enough to school Jordan, who is pushing the age limits of professional athletics at 38. It’s a testament to Jordan’s greatness that he will probably still be able to hold his own against any player in the league.
But regardless of how well Jordan plays tonight, media folks say his presence will certainly translate into an immediate surge of interest in the NBA.
"When you’re dealing with opening night of Jordan--against the Knicks--it couldn’t have been scripted better, even going up against the World Series. There will be a lot of picture-in-picture going on, or watching in sports bars," says Hadrian Shaw, a sports analyst at Paul Kagan Associates.
"The regular season has always been such a problem, with 82 games. When you have someone like Michael Jordan, it’s a reason to watch an early November-December game, especially early on in Jordan’s comeback. As the season wears on, if he doesn’t perform, then people won’t watch," says Shaw.
Turner Sports is confident enough of Jordan’s effect on tonight’s game that it expects a 5.0 household rating, despite the game's running against the World Series.
That number also takes into account the fact that the game will be blacked out in New York and that communal viewing, such as in sports bars, isn’t counted by Nielsen in its regular ratings.
To put that kind of rating in perspective, a 5.0 rating for tonight’s game would most likely make it the highest-rated show on cable for this week, well ahead of TNN’s "WWF," which usually earns around a 4.2.
Or more impressively, a 5.0 rating for the game would be 4.5 times higher than the 1.1 that TBS and TNT averaged last year with the 81 NBA games.
And in an increasingly fragmented television-sports landscape, that kind of ratings increase would be monumental.
"Even when Jordan was around, the ratings were going down. It’s just so hard to equate the value of a rating point versus five years ago," says Shaw.
"The value of a rating point is even more important these days. I think there will be a ratings spike, and hopefully he’ll stay healthy so that NBC will get its 11 games and TBS and TNT will get 15."
Beyond tonight’s game, Jordan’s return could also mean a renewed interest in regular season play. Last year the L.A. Lakers made the regular season seem irrelevant, dominating the playoffs after playing a less-than-impressive season.
"Jordan’s presence has really revitalized the regular season for the NBA. It’s captured the attention of an audience that wasn’t checking in until the playoffs," says Don Hinchey, director of creative services for the Bonham Group, a Denver-based sports consulting firm.
"It’s very similar to Mario Lemieux’s return to the NHL. A lot of people will be keeping a report card on how Michael Jordan does in each game."
The looming question, of course, is what will happen to the NBA when Jordan leaves again. Most media analysts are hoping that Jordan’s stint with the Wizards will draw attention to other star players, who will then carry the league after Jordan retires for the third time.
"After Jordan’s retirement, it was a situation in which no player could win. How could you be the next Jordan? There’s only one. But when he left, the other players were able to develop their own identities, out of the shadow of Michael Jordan," says Hinchey.
"Those stars are all going to have another shot at competing with the legend, and when Jordan steps off the stage again, it will enhance the reputation of the others.
"We’re in a position now where we have a full cast of stars that can hold the stage with Michael Jordan."
October 30, 2001 © 2001 Media Life
-Elizabeth White is a staff writer for Media Life.
Printer-Friendly
Version | Send to
a Friend
Cover Page | Contact
Us
