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magazine launches
It's not just the ad slump. It's a tougher business.
By Jeff Bercovici
Think back on the celebrated magazine launches of the past several years: Oprah, Lucky, Rosie, Teen People. And can we forget Talk and all the buzz in the months leading up to its birth?
Remember these launches fondly, indeed.
We're not going to see any like them for some time to come, certainly not in what remains of this year, and not very likely next year either, even as the ad economy improves.
Many publishers are postponing or canceling plans for new launches, and they are taking into account not only the comatose ad market, which will recover, but also more long-term factors that are expected only to worsen.
They include the increasing costs of distribution and reader acquisition.
Some 600 magazines will have launched by the end of 2001, about half the number that launched in 1999, and just 500 are expected to launch in 2002.
With few exceptions, if any, these will be small, niche launches, or spinoffs.
To the extent that major publishers do have anything bigger planned, they're keeping them even more tightly under wraps than in the past.
Just this week, do-it-yourself maven Martha Stewart said during a panel discussion at the American Magazine Conference that she was considering launching a travel title aimed at families. By the next afternoon, a spokeswoman for Martha Stewart Omnimedia was denying the existence of any such plans.
The slowdown in startups was already apparent well before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, says Samir Husni, a journalism professor at the University of Mississippi who publishes the Guide to New Consumer Magazines.
According to Husni, in 1998, the high watermark for launches, 1,054 new magazines hit the market. In each of the next two years, about 870 new magazines appeared.
This year, however, there will probably only be about 600 new magazines started, says Husni. And next year, he predicts, that number won't be much above 500.
Beyond the economy and other marketplace factors, publishers are simply realizing that there are just too many magazines competing with each other in a world where people are spending less and less time with print media.
"We are no longer living in the 'expansion of magazines' age," says Husni. "We’re living in the 'cannibalization of magazines' age.
"Every new magazine that's coming out is cannibalizing an established magazine. There are no more voids in the market."
Husni says the falloff in launches will take place mostly among mid-size publishers rather than among big, rich companies or small ones with close ties to their markets.
"We are going to continue to see big companies launching big magazines."
But even big publishers don't seem to have much planned for 2002--or at least, if they do, they're not talking much about it.
A spokeswoman for Meredith confirms that the company is working on two prototypes but says they are still in the development stage, with no launch dates set yet. Former Glamour editor Bonnie Fuller is working up a lifestyle magazine for young women, while Mike Lafavore, onetime editor of Men’s Health, is in charge of creating a men’s lifestyle magazine.
Earlier this year, it was reported that Gruner + Jahr was working on at least three new magazines, including Real People, a celebrity/entertainment magazine, and Friday, a women’s lifestyle book. Former Self editor Alexandra Penney is said to be putting together the Real People prototype. A call to Gruner + Jahr received no response.
Magazine consultant Martin Walker says he expects even major publishers will roll out only those magazines they consider to be sure bets in 2002.
"Next year is not the year to launch a new magazine unless you have a celebrity like Oprah, or something like that that’s a no-brainer," says Walker.
Another possibility, he says, are more spinoffs of existing brands, such as Elle Girl and Teen Vogue, which debuted this year from Hachette Filipacchi and Condé Nast, respectively.
October 26, 2001 © 2001 Media Life
-Jeff Bercovici is a staff writer for Media Life.
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