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ABC's a better story
Gaining on NBC in mornings and evenings. Why?
By Elizabeth White
For most television news outlets, the events of Sept. 11 and the war in Afghanistan have dramatically increased ratings and attracted new viewers.
But while NBC has enjoyed some of these benefits, the real gainer among the networks has been ABC. And its gains have been both for its morning shows and the evening news show with Peter Jennings.
The question is, why? Another related question is whether the gains will continue or fade as America's interest in war news fades, as it will likely do unless there is another attack.
Is it a case of ABC getting suddenly better at presenting the news? Or is it a matter of NBC faltering, notably with its morning show, perhaps, as some believe, under new managers who took over from Jeff Zucker when he was moved to NBC entertainment head last December?
No one can answer either question for sure, but a lot of media buyers are watching closely.
During November, ABC’s "Good Morning America" narrowed the audience gap with NBC’s "Today Show" to its closest point since 2000, to just over one million total viewers.
For the week of Nov. 5-11, the gap was 880,000 total viewers, the smallest since 1996. As recently as six months ago, the "Today Show’s" margin of victory was two million viewers.
In the evening news battle, ABC’s "World News Tonight" won the first three weeks of November, while NBC’s "Nightly News" won the week of Thanksgiving.
Since Sept. 11, "World News Tonight" has had a 13 percent increase in total viewers, NBC has had a 4 percent increase, and CBS has had an 8 percent increase.
Most media analysts say it’s too soon to suggest that NBC will be supplanted by ABC in morning and evening news, but November’s numbers certainly spell trouble for NBC.
"The Sept. 11 events changed a lot of people’s viewing habits," says Lyle Schwartz, senior vice president and director of media research at The Media Edge.
"The ‘Today Show’s’ numbers have been sliding a bit. The cable news networks have seen significant increases in audience.
"Anytime people change their habits, there’s some carryover effect. There is some modification of viewing. I don’t see it returning to normal anytime soon."
In a recent analysis of morning-news viewing after Sept. 11, The Media Edge discovered that usage has increased 10 percent in households versus the same time period last year, 12 percent among adults 18-49, and 12 percent among adults 25-54.
But few of those gains have gone to the "Today Show."
Comparing the weeks of Sept. 11-Nov. 5, 2000 to the weeks of Sept. 11-Nov. 4, 2001, "Good Morning America’s" ratings are up 3 percent in households, 14 percent among adults 18-34, 15 percent among adults 18-49, and 12 percent among adults 25-54. "Today’s" ratings are down 6 percent in households, flat among adults 18-34, down 4 percent among adults 18-49, and flat among adults 25-54. CBS’s "Early Show" is up 10 percent in households, flat among adults 18-34, up 29 percent among adults 18-49, and up 11 percent among adults 25-54.
Yet unlike NBC’s "Nightly News," which began occasionally losing to ABC’s "World News Tonight" in total viewers this May, the "Today Show" is hardly in danger of losing its top position anytime soon.
Last week marked "Today’s" 309th consecutive week in first place.
"It’s too early to predict the demise of the ‘Today Show.’ The margin is still too wide," says Susan Hajny, broadcast research manager at GSD&M.
"But like everything, morning news is cyclical, and NBC has been riding a high wave for a while. The competition is a good thing."
And ABC may simply be enjoying a post-Sept. 11 boost longer than NBC.
"One of the reasons ABC is citing [for its ratings increase] is that it’s more serious in its news programs. That could be true, but what it’s hiding is that more serious news attracts an older audience," says Hajny.
"‘Good Morning America’s’ audience is probably maintaining a better rating post-Sept. 11 than the younger audience of the ‘Today Show.’ I would predict January returning to normal in the mornings."
November 28, 2001 © 2001 Media Life
-Elizabeth White is a staff writer for Media Life.
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