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if NBC wins sweeps
Viewership off 11% among 18-49s from year ago
By Kevin Downey
Though Fox is now ahead in the sweeps in the 18-49 demo, its lead is fragile and will likely evaporate in these last two days, to give NBC its second consecutive sweeps victory.
But for NBC it will be at best a Pyrrhic one, a victory that says more about its weaknesses than its strengths.
Win or not, NBC's viewership among 18- to 49-year-olds will down about 11 percent from last November.
This time last year it led ABC by six-tenths of a rating point. As of Sunday, it was trailing Fox by one-tenth of a point.
But NBC’s struggles may have less to do with weaknesses in its primetime lineup than with the strength of its competitors, notably Fox.
Fox has been in the lead all month, thanks in large part to having three World Series games fall within the November sweeps, as well as the opportunity to use the games to promote its fall lineup as it was set to debut through November.
NBC has also been hurt by the ongoing migration of viewers to cable, which intensified in the wake of Sept. 11.
Ratings on basic cable are up 2.6 percent overall, according to the Cabletelevision Advertising Bureau.
"Part of that has to do with the events of Sept. 11," says Brad Adgate, senior vice president and corporate research director at Horizon Media.
"There is a lot of research that shows that younger viewers are watching more news than in the past. Some of them may have been siphoned from NBC to networks like MSNBC."
If NBC pulls ahead of Fox, it will likely do so on the power of "The West Wing" and "Law & Order" on Wednesday, the last night of the sweeps. Both shows are regulars in the top-10.
Also on that night it has a "Christmas in Rockefeller Center" special, and tonight it is airing a celebrity edition of "Fear Factor," which was one of the highest rated shows last summer among adults 18-49.
The other networks have few remaining sweeps stunts left to roll out.
ABC and Fox are running their regular lineups.
CBS had the "Carol Burnett" reunion last night, not a big draw with younger viewers, and has a third installment of the low-rated Garth Brooks specials coming up.
"I think it will be really close and will come down to the wire," says Adgate.
"On Fox, shows like ‘Ally McBeal’ have been down a bit. And on Tuesday night ‘Frasier’ has been doing well on NBC, while ‘24’ has been something of a disappointment on Fox.
"But it might come down to NBC’s Wednesday night. Along with its regular shows and the lighting of the tree special, NBC might just eke out a win."
NBC surely has had its share of problems this sweeps.
On Sunday, for example, the network came in a distant fourth place. Its lineup of "Weakest Link" and two "Law & Orders" trailed Fox, which had "Star Wars: Episode I--The Phantom Menace"; ABC, which had "The Santa Clause"; and CBS, which had the movie, "You’ve Got Mail."
Some younger viewers are going over to the smaller networks as well. UPN’s sweeps rating is up 11 percent this November, based on ratings through last Tuesday, while the WB is down 5 percent.
But NBC has mostly dominated the adult 18-49 rating with its regular shows--pumped up with special appearances by stars like Brad Pitt--while it sidelined weak performers like "Emeril" and "Inside Schwartz" for the month.
Moreover, some of its toughest competitors, specifically CBS’s "Survivor: Africa," have performed below expectations this season.
"Friends" beat "Survivor" by 56 percent in head-to-head competition two weeks ago, for example, and had an audience about 35 percent higher than it averaged last year.
NBC currently has a 5.0, adult 18-49 rating, to Fox’s 5.1, while CBS is up 16 percent over last November, to a 4.4, and ABC is down 25 percent to a 3.8.
November 27, 2001 © 2001 Media Life
-Kevin Downey is a staff writer for Media Life.
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