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trough of political TV $s
Reformers: No one wins but the TV stations
By Gabriel Spitzer
Media buyers might be wise to pay attention to C-SPAN over the next few weeks while Congress debates campaign finance reform.
Literally billions of dollars in ad money hang in the balance.
Candidates, political parties and issue groups spent nearly a billion dollars in the last election cycle on broadcast advertising alone, the majority of which was paid for in so-called soft money by the parties.
The McCain-Feingold bill, slated to hit the floor of Congress in coming days, would overhaul the way in which campaign money is raised, and a subsequent bill being drafted by Senator John McCain of Arizona would directly target the broadcast industry by mandating free airtime for candidates and parties.
"The next two weeks are going to influence campaigning in very profound ways," says Ken Goldstein, professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Goldstein did extensive research into political advertising during the 2000 election cycle.
The free airtime bill, to be introduced to Congress later this year, demands perhaps the most attention from media buyers.
The bill would impose a spectrum-usage fee on television stations, along the lines of one percent of gross revenues, that would be gathered in a national political time bank.
The time bank would hand out vouchers to political parties and qualifying federal candidates, who would then be able to use them in the markets of their choice.
The bill’s proponents estimate that the time bank would be worth about $750 million in 2002.
The bill will certainly face fierce opposition from the broadcast industry, among others.
"It will be an uphill battle, no question about that," says Paul Taylor, president of Alliance for Better Campaigns, a Washington-based non-profit group that advocates free airtime for candidates.
"For one thing, the broadcast industry is obviously a very powerful lobby in Washington. Also, anything that provides free airtime would level the playing field and help challengers, so the incumbents in Congress won’t like that."
House Majority Leader Dick Armey, R-Texas, has already vowed to try to kill the bill.
Fueling the debate will be all the data from political ad spending in 2000, which has been picked apart and analyzed for the last four months.
"We know that spending is going through the roof. Our figures show that political advertisers spent five times more in 2000 than they did in 1980, after adjusting for inflation. More than anything else, that’s the engine that’s driving the money race," says Taylor.
Goldstein, in conjunction with the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law, released a report last week breaking down many of the numbers from 2000.
The report reveals that political advertisers bought 839,000 television spots related to federal races.
Leading all other markets was Detroit, with 29,509 spots. Another Michigan market, Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo, came in fourth with 24,321. Two Washington state markets took spots two and three: Seattle-Tacoma had 28,687 spots, and Spokane saw 24,495.
Among the nation’s top 75 television markets, many southern cities were nearly ignored. The Greensboro-High Point market in North Carolina got only 261 spots, and San Antonio had just 691.
According to Goldstein’s report, the evening news was by far the most popular programming for political advertisers, garnering 370,509 advertising spots. The networks’ newsy shows followed, led by "Today" with 38,453.
Among non-news programs, syndicated game shows "Wheel of Fortune" and "Jeopardy" far outdistanced their competitors, with 16,587 and 14,880 political ad spots, respectively.
In anther report, "Gouging Democracy," the Alliance for Better Campaigns argues that television stations leveraged the huge demand for ad time during election season to jack up rates.
By law, stations are required to offer political candidates the "lowest unit charge," or LUC, for political ad spots. But in order to ensure that their spots are not preempted by advertisers who paid more money, most candidates were forced to buy non-preemptible time at much higher rates.
The study, based on an analysis of 10 network-affiliated stations in large markets, shows that candidates ended up paying an average 65 percent more than the LUC published on the stations’ rate cards.
The strain on inventory this created also drove up rates for other advertisers. Political parties and issue groups, who aren’t entitled to LUC, saw their ad rates double or even triple between Labor Day and Election Day.
Many political as well as non-political advertisers found themselves confronted with astronomical rates for diminished inventory, or with no ad time left at all, and were thus shut out of the market, the report concludes.
Goldstein believes that most markets reached the saturation point long before Election Day.
"In the markets that were the focus of presidential election advertising, and were lucky enough to have a few competitive House or Senate seats, we saw saturation from late August on," Goldstein says.
"The great question for academics like me, and for those who buy this advertising, is: are any messages actually getting through? We don’t yet have the evidence to definitely answer that question, but given everything we know about advertising, you’ve got to believe there are incredibly diminishing returns there."
If Congress rejects campaign finance reform and free airtime for candidates, expect the numbers to keep climbing in 2002.
"If we don’t get any significant changes through legislation, there will be less spending in aggregate terms since there’s no presidential election, but more in comparison to 1998. The Senate is a virtual tie, so every seat is competitive. Plus the House is close, and you add to that the redistricting; that puts a lot more seats in play and that’s going to draw a lot more ad money."
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Top
programs |
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Show: |
Number of political advertising spots: |
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Local News |
370,509 |
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"Today" |
38,453 |
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"Good Morning America" |
32,635 |
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"Early Show" |
20,985 |
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"Wheel of Fortune" |
16,587 |
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"Jeopardy" |
14,880 |
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"Oprah Winfrey" |
13,897 |
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"Judge Judy" |
12,279 |
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"Nightline" |
12,167 |
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"Live with Regis" |
10,708 |
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Movies |
9,633 |
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"Entertainment Tonight" |
8,848 |
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"Rosie O’Donnell" |
8,751 |
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"Late Show" |
6,466 |
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"Judge Joe Brown" |
5,778 |
| Source:
Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law, based on data from
the Campaign Media Analysis Group
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Top
markets |
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Market: |
Number of political advertising spots: |
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Detroit, MI |
29,509 |
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Seattle-Tacoma, WA |
28,687 |
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Spokane, WA |
24,495 |
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Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo, MI |
24,321 |
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St. Louis, MO |
24,024 |
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Philadelphia, PA |
23,763 |
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Flint-Saginaw, MI |
23,184 |
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Kansas City, MO |
22,536 |
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New York, NY |
22,114 |
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Wilkes Barre-Scranton, PA |
19,035 |
| Source:
Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law, based on data from
the Campaign Media Analysis Group
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-Gabriel Spitzer is a staff writer for Media Life.
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