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bet: CBS's 'Max Bickford'
'Emeril' D.O.A on media buyers' lists of fall shows
By Kevin Downey
As summer broadcast TV snoozes set in, media buyers and researchers are coming up with their annual predictions for which fall shows will hit with viewers and which will bomb.
The best bet this go-around, in what media buyers say is a decidedly weak group, is CBS’s "The Education of Max Bickford."
"It certainly has potential," says Tom Watson, vice president and research director of Initiative Media’s Pacific region.
"We’re probably giving it the highest mark, from a numbers point of view. I think it’s a good show for CBS’s audience."
The show, starring Richard Dreyfuss as a college professor, will take "Touched by an Angel’s" coveted slot after "60 Minutes" on Sunday.
The show made the list of potential hits at Bates USA, TN Media, Carat, and Initiative Media, each of which shared its picks with Media Life yesterday.
Shows that most predict will become hits have two things in common: a good time slot and high-quality production.
Another show predicted to become a hit is "Law & Order: Criminal Intent."
The NBC show is the third installment in the series from Dick Wolf and follows a crime from the viewpoint of the criminal.
"'Criminal Intent' will do well," says Watson. "It comes from a good lineage, although I don’t think it will be a huge hit."
Other potential hits, though garnering slightly less enthusiasm, include "24" on Fox.
In that show a CIA agent is followed over a 24-hour period, with each episode covering one of those hours. It stars Kiefer Sutherland, which works in its favor, but it will be straddled in a tough time slot against NBC’s "Frasier" and "Scrubs," one of a very few new sitcoms that is forecast to stick around for a while.
It will face competition from "Roswell" on its new network, UPN, and CBS’s new drama, "The Guardian," as well as "Bob Patterson" on ABC, which stars "Seinfeld’s" Jason Alexander.
But "24" will also go up against the WB's "Smallville," a drama about Superman as a teenager that most media folks see as a potential hit for that network.
"There will be a bit of a battle between ‘Smallville’ and ‘Roswell’ because they are both about teens growing up and discovering they have powers," says Shari Anne Brill, director of programming services at Carat.
"It’s not that ‘Smallville’ won’t be renewed but it has that little difficulty."
Other shows that get favorable nods include ABC’s drama, "Philly," which is produced by "NYPD Blue’s" Steven Bochco, and the network’s "Alias," which is about a secret CIA agent.
"Amazing Race" on CBS is also expected to do well, says Stacey Lynn Koerner, vice president of broadcast research at TN Media.
"There are compelling stories in what we’ve seen. As far as reality goes, that could be really great."
"Crossing Jordan," a drama about a medical examiner, and "Scrubs" on NBC got a few positive votes from the agencies.
Fox’s "Undeclared" is a sitcom about college freshmen living in a dorm and will have the prime lead-in of "That '70s Show" on Tuesday.
"I love that show," remarks Brill.
"No one else is raving about this show but me. But I always find one show I like and then I’m right, so mark my words."
UPN has "Buffy" and "Roswell" as well as the new "Star Trek" series "Enterprise," and all are thought to be strong shows for that network.
Besides "Smallville," the WB has "Maybe I’m Adopted," which stars Julia Sweeney from "Saturday Night Live," and will follow the network’s Friday hit, "Sabrina."
One thing that has made the predictions by buyers and researchers a bit easier this year is that there are fewer new shows coming this fall than in the past.
Over 40 percent of the shows that premiered on the networks this year will be back in the fall, according to TN Media. That compares to just 20 percent in the 1997/98 season.
"We had a good midseason, that has a lot to do with it," says Koerner.
"ABC, for instance, only launched four shows in the fall, none of which made it. But they launched another four in midseason and all of them made it.
"And Fox typically does not have a good fall but they always have a successful midseason. This year they had both."
Another thing that makes the predictions fairly simple is the sheer awfulness of many of the shows.
Top contenders for early cancellation include "Emeril," the NBC sitcom starring the Food Network chef.
"I call ‘Emeril’ a recipe for disaster," says Brill. "You know that saying, ‘don’t give up your day job’? He doesn’t have comic timing and the supporting cast around him is not good."
"Bernie Mac" and "The Tick" on Fox are thought to be facing early deaths, as are Ellen DeGeneres’ new sitcom, "The Ellen Show," and its Friday companion, "American Wreck," on CBS.
And even "Deep in the Heart," with Reba McEntire on the WB, may not make it.
"Inside Schwartz" on NBC will most likely generate decent ratings only because of its "Friends" lead-in on NBC.
"I don’t know why NBC continues to program things like ‘Inside Schwartz’ on Thursday night," says Watson. "They’ve had a series of male-skewing comedies that don’t work and this is the next one."
But one note of caution to readers. These picks, both for winners and losers, are but educated guesses, at best.
Media handicappers are often wrong. Last year's top show was "Bette," which quickly fireballed to the bottom of the ratings.
Click here for the complete fall primetime schedule.
June 8, 2001 © 2001 Media Life
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