Conventional wisdom holds that the NBA finals, which begin this evening on NBC, will be a trouncing that will draw fewer viewers.
    The earth will open up and swallow the Philadelphia 76ers, while the seemingly unstoppable Los Angeles Lakers cruise to an easy, and low-rated, four-game sweep.
    But look deeper, say observers, and you’ll find that the NBA has actually landed itself what is probably the best matchup it could hope for. 
    The 76ers could pull some surprises.
    And even if the series turns out to be a drubbing, the basketball league should find itself in a good position going into next season and the upcoming negotiations over television rights.
    "On paper, it’s the ideal matchup. You’ve got the country’s No. 2 market, which is on the West Coast, and the fourth-largest market, which is on the East Coast," says Tom McGovern, director of sports marketing at OMD. "You’ve got this year’s MVP, last year’s MVP and some of the NBA’s rising stars. The NBA couldn’t hope for a better matchup."
    For sure, pro basketball is a sport fueled by star power, and it has been suffering from star-hunger ever since Michael Jordan left.
    But for all the mourning over Jordan's departure, and much pining over his rumored return, there is a new generation of rising stars soon to adorn cereal boxes, and many will be showcased in this year's playoffs.
    In Los Angeles, the Lakers have the fuzzy-bearish Shaquille O’Neal, coupled with the young and hungry Kobe Bryant.
   Philadelphia has the fearsome center Dikembe Mutombo, and, most importantly, league MVP Allen Iverson.
    "I think Iverson is quicker than anything L.A. has seen this season," says Neal Pilson, former president of CBS Sports and currently president of Pilson Communications, a sports consulting company based in Westchester, N.Y.
    While there has been much buzz about the possibility of Michael Jordan returning to basketball, Pilson believes the league would do better to develop the talent and fan-draw of young players like the ones that will be on the court tonight.
    "The young stars have grown up and matured this year, and I think they’re finally putting the Michael Jordan era behind them. For Jordan to come back would be a short-term distraction. It would refocus the league on one guy, and that’s not in the long-term interests of the league."
    Iverson was quickly labeled a "bad boy" when he came into the league, but he has matured greatly over the past few years.
    "As each game goes on, Iverson becomes less of a bad boy and more of a marketable star," says McGovern.
    As always with playoff series, the real test for ratings will be whether or not the series reaches games five, six and seven.
    If anyone has a chance to test the Lakers, it’s probably the 76ers.
    "I think Philly is going to be much more aggressive and up-tempo than the Lakers are used to. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Philly were to steal a game in L.A., and that would make it a series," says Pilson.
    But even if Los Angeles does jump out to a quick 2-0 or 3-0 lead, fan interest might still be there for another reason.
    "Everybody would like to see Philly win a couple of games. But if L.A. sweeps, they’ll be perfect throughout the playoffs, and that’s never been done before. L.A. will certainly be hungry for that record," says Michael Kostainsek, vice president, associate media director for the Media Edge in San Francisco.
    A record-setting Lakers team would likely spell good news for the league, which has not had an unbeatable marquee team since the Chicago Bulls were dismantled three years ago.
   Never mind that a four-game series would be ugly for NBC and its advertisers.
    "People love historical events, and if the Lakers go undefeated, people might want to witness history in game four," says McGovern.
   "The beauty of sports is that it’s unscripted. It could end up being six or seven great games, or it could be four blowouts. If there are seven close games, by game four you’ll start to see good numbers."
    NBC has had no problem selling off its ad inventory for the finals, though buyers speculate that there may be a few spots available in the later games if the series does in fact go past game four.
    According to observers, about 60 percent of the ad time in the finals is taken up with preexisting long-term deals, which has helped NBC avoid slashing rates too deeply in the midst of the ongoing ad slump.
    NBC’s NBA playoff coverage so far has shown a hefty ratings drop-off from the year before, down 14 percent to score an average 4.9 rating, 12 share, according to Nielsen.
    Meanwhile, buyers expect ratings to remain in the neighborhood of last year’s finals, which rated an 11.6.
    "If you look at the trend of the playoffs, and the overall performance of the league, it will be down slightly. But if the games are close, the ratings will be there," says McGovern.

June 6, 2001 © 2001 Media Life

-Gabriel Spitzer is a staff writer for Media Life.

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