|
| |
Boston people meters
Down almost 10 percent from existing sample
By Gabriel Spitzer
For months media folks have been awaiting the first data from Nielsen's people meter trial in Boston, some with trepidation.
Now it appears those concerns were well-founded.
The data is in, and it looks as though the people meters are recording a dramatic drop in HUTs, or households using television levels, as compared to set-meter and diary methods Nielsen currently uses.
It turns out that the HUT levels in the people-meter sample of 420 homes were 9.1 percent lower than those of the set-meter/diary sample.
For certain dayparts, particularly 5 p.m. to 7 p.m., the time when most local stations make their living, HUT levels for people-meter homes were as much as 15 percent lower than their set-meter/diary counterparts.
Just why HUT levels are off is not clear. Nielsen hasn’t yet explained the discrepancy to the satisfaction of many media buyers.
"There were some major differences, and there’s a lot of concern. They had no answer for why the HUT levels were different," says Karen Agresti, senior vice president and director of local broadcast at Hill, Holliday in Boston.
"Everybody expected that with the people meters, the demographics would be different. But the methodology measuring households is the same, it’s just two different samples. So they can’t explain why there’s such a big difference in the household measurements."
Certain demographics actually increased by the people meters’ measurements.
During May sweeps, viewing among men 25-54 was up 10.5 percent, children’s viewing was up 23.4 percent and teens’ viewing increased 30.5 percent.
Despite the HUT discrepancy, Nielsen says it is pleased with the overall people-meter sample, which it reports is in line with the market’s universe. Nielsen is also getting good initial cooperation rates—52.5 percent in people-meter homes, compared to just 39.6 percent in set-meter homes.
According to Nielsen, the drop in HUT levels was not entirely unexpected. HUT levels also decreased in 1986 when Nielsen began using people meters for its national sample.
"We did expect to see some decreases because that’s what we saw in ’86. Some were slightly more than we expected, but that’s the reason for this demonstration. If we find something through this demonstration that’s a cause for improvement, we’ll change it," says Nielsen spokesperson Karen Kratz.
Nielsen hopes the HUT gap will narrow when it adds more homes to the sample. Nielsen plans to have the people meter in an additional 180 households by the end of August.
"Some of our clients are really anxious to see whether the increase in households will bring any changes in the viewing numbers. But there’s really no reason right now to think that the 600 households will look any different than the 420 households," says Kratz.
Complicating matters is the fact that the drops in HUT levels and, to a lesser extent, in PUT levels (persons using television), did not occur in predictable ways.
Conventional wisdom holds that the Nielsen’s diaries undercount smaller broadcast stations, because people tend to better remember bigger stations and therefore record them in the diaries more consistently.
But the viewership in the people-meter households dropped across the board.
"My understanding is that it’s lower for broadcast and cable, which came as sort of a surprise," says George Ivie, executive director of Media Rating Council, a trade association that audits media ratings agencies like Nielsen.
"People thought the whole name recall thing would lead to the larger channels losing more than the cable channels were. But when the results came out, they showed that both aspects lost, and lost considerably. That’s why people are scratching their heads."
MRC has not yet been allowed to audit Nielsen’s local people meter system.
The depressed HUT levels mean that the Boston market could end up with fewer overall gross ratings points than markets measured by the set meters and diaries, raising concerns among some buyers that the Boston market will come out looking like a lousy buy.
But others dismiss such hand-wringing.
"The reality is, if a client has people buying their product in Boston, we’re going to be buying Boston," says Ira Sussman, executive vice president of Futures at Initiative Media New York.
"You need to be a smarter buyer and just learn to deal with a different measurement device. I think the buying community will get it right, and the sellers just need to trust that that will happen."
Most buyers agree that the technology is sound and that people meters are in fact more accurate than the other measuring devices on the market. That being the case, the Nielsen demonstration should help the Boston market rather than put it at a disadvantage.
"If Boston is successful, the agencies are going to start pushing for people meters in other markets. Maybe some of the other markets are going to be considered bad purchases because their numbers are less accurate," MRC’s Ivie says.
Nielsen plans to roll out the people meters in at least nine more local markets over the next three years. Nielsen has yet to announce which cities are next on the list, though top-tier markets seem likely.
July 11, 2001 © 2001 Media Life
-Gabriel Spitzer is a staff writer for Media Life
Printer-Friendly
Version | Send
to a Friend
Cover Page | Contact
Us
