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on Super Bowl XXXV
Forget the hype. Buyers say viewership will be off.
By Kevin Downey
Next Sunday's Super Bowl XXXV will be the usual national TV holiday but no match for last year's turnout in viewers.
So goes the betting among media buyers and researchers.
The reason: Even with the Super Bowl, the game is the thing, and this game is expected to be a dull one.
Further, media folks don't think viewership will be much helped by the glut of related programming CBS has planned or the post-game debut of "Survivor 2," the network's much-hyped reality series.
They are predicting around a 41 rating for the match-up between the New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens, significantly below last year’s 43.3 rating for St. Louis’s win over Tennessee on ABC.
Buyers and researchers contacted yesterday by Media Life offered projections ranging from 39.5 to 42. A 39.5 would make XXXV the lowest rated Super Bowl football game since 1991; a 42 would put it on the low end for the past decade.
"It won’t go below a 40 but it won’t be last year either. That game was exciting and a nail-biter," says Shari Anne Brill, director of programming services at Carat.
John Rash, senior vice president and director of broadcast negotiations at Campbell Mithun, expects the rating for this year’s game to be close to 1999’s Denver win over Atlanta. That game had a 40.2 household rating.
"It is still a remarkable achievement to have that many Americans have the same interest at the same time," he says.
"It’s also a rare TV event in that it is under-reported because of group viewing and the large number of people watching in college dorms and bars."
Buyers say the game will be a dull one for several reasons.
For one, the two teams lack a major rivalry to build excitement. For another, neither has the sort of marquis players who tend to draw viewers.
Also working against the match-up is that no one expects there to be a down-to-the-wire fourth quarter that drew millions of viewers to last year's game. Never mind that that game too had largely been written off as a ho-hummer in the weeks leading up to it.
"Ultimately the biggest thing that will impact the ratings is the game itself. The biggest factor is the closeness of the game," says Tom McGovern, director of sports marketing at OMD/BBDO.
Brad Adgate, senior vice president and director of research at Horizon Media, says: "Last year was a great game but this year will not be as exciting. There’s not much of a rivalry."
Las Vegas odds-makers are betting this Super Bowl will be one of the lowest-scoring ever, with most giving the Ravens a close 3-point lead over the Giants.
Jason Kanefsky, senior vice president of network at MPG, agrees.
"They’ll set a record for punting and fewest points scored," he says. "And nobody’s running to watch punting."
CBS has scheduled an MTV-produced half-time show with *N Sync and Aerosmith, and that's in addition to the network’s 14 hours of weekend pre- and post-game coverage. Then, directly after the game, comes the premiere of "Survivor: The Australian Outback."
Most buyers and researchers say that none of it will serve to improve viewership.
"[‘Survivor II’] won’t impact the game," says Tom Watson, vice president and research director of Initiative Media’s Pacific region. "But in reverse, a sizable number of viewers might stay tuned.
"If you’re sitting there for four hours, not everybody will stick around for another hour. But there will be a sizable number of people who do."
Stacey Lynn Koerner, vice president of broadcast research at TN Media, concurs: "It won’t have any impact. But it will probably hold onto the 'Super Bowl' audience better than other programs.
"It will depend on the game, though. If it’s a blowout, nothing will hold onto viewers."
-Kevin Downey is a staff writer for Media Life.
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