Everyone knows that cable is growing at the expense of broadcast TV, and the widely held presumption is that the growth stems from better programming, in no small manner reflecting cable's recent emphasis on original shows.
    More people are turning to cable to watch better shows, or so the thinking goes. 
    In truth, cable audiences appear to be growing because the coverage of many cable networks is growing. More cable networks are getting into more homes. So reports a new study from MediaVest.
     And the growth is almost exclusively among the smaller, niche networks.
     Of the 10 cable networks with the greatest coverage area--77 percent or more-- six have suffered primetime household audience declines this season. 
    In contrast, all but two of the cable networks with less than 77 percent coverage have enjoyed audience increases.
   Analysts at MediaVest say these numbers suggest that a large part of cable’s growth last year was simply because newer technology like digital cable and satellite TV allowed more networks to reach more people.
   "ESPN and TBS add households every month, but the networks that are showing growth are in 30 million homes," says Bruce Cohen, senior vice president and group director at MediaVest. "Right now cable is reformatting to allow for 100 or more channels, and this is an opportunity for many late-comers to grow their audience."
   And as technology becomes less of an obstacle, many smaller niche networks have been able to drive audience growth through rapid expansion into more markets.
    "Cable is going to grow. But the growth is going to come from the smaller networks increasing their coverage area," says Anna Marie Recco, vice president and associate media research director at MediaVest. "We found the top 10 networks are not contributing to cable’s growth. But it’s not just the bottom 10 either; it’s everything but the top 10. The top 10 are slowing cable down."
   Interestingly, having popular programming doesn’t seem to help the situation for the larger networks. 
   Five of the 10 most popular cable shows this season are on networks whose audiences have declined since last season.
   "Some of the top programming did come from the networks that lost audience across the board," says Laura Kenney, media research supervisor at MediaVest.
    But that doesn’t mean that programming doesn’t matter.
   Lifetime, SciFi, Comedy Central, and MTV have all boosted their audiences with popular original programs. And the cable news networks enjoyed a decided audience jump this season with election-oriented coverage.
    "[Original programming] helps establish an identity," says Cohen. "It reaches out to the audience. But reruns are important because they bring familiarity. Court TV’s identity is coming from live coverage of trials. But ‘Homicide’ is also driving some growth."
   The creation of a unique identity, or niche, has been the other major factor increasing cable audiences over the past year. Nearly all of the networks experiencing primetime season-to-date growth also cater to a specific interest. The Travel Channel is one of the best examples this season, having increased its primetime audience by 134 percent.
    "A lot of networks which have increased are niche networks. They’re gaining a foothold with subscribers, and it’s got to come from somewhere," says Cohen. "Everyone’s shares are going to get smaller, and that household share is a function of programming."

-Elizabeth White is a staff writer for Media Life.

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