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strike plans are limp
Reality, schmeality, settling is the only solution
By Gabriel Spitzer
The not-too-distant rumblings of a writers’ and actors’ strike are being heard in Pasadena, where the networks have spent the last week stumping at the Television Critics Association press tour.
Every network that has presented so far has at least gestured toward its plans in the event of a strike when the Writers Guild of America’s contract expires at midnight, May 2. Contracts for the Screen Actors Guild and the American Federation of Television and Radio Actors come due shortly thereafter, on June 30.
But the media community is not overly impressed with what it has seen so far. There is a sense that the networks are slapping together a patchwork schedule that, while slightly better than dead air, will not much help the networks or advertisers.
"If a strike lasts even just a few weeks, the impact is going to be felt in the fall regardless of any contingency plans. And as buyers, we’ll have to take that into account when we do our upfront deals," says Chris Geraci, director of national TV buying at OMD/BBDO.
The last time the WGA struck, in 1988, the 22-week stoppage pushed the entire season back to the winter holidays. Networks are anxious to avoid such a disaster this time around.
The WGA and the studios are due to commence official negotiations on January 22, but clearly the networks are taking the possibility of a strike seriously.
The contingency plans the networks have been announcing, or at least hinting at, have a few common elements: 1) Networks are stockpiling additional episodes of current programs; 2) some networks are holding midseason replacement shows until next fall; and 3) reality shows. Lots of ‘em.
This last solution seems to be the most popular, as it could allow networks both to cash in on the trendy genre and to run plenty of unscripted programming, reducing the need for union writers.
But will it be enough?
"The fact that there might be a dozen reality shows on the air doesn’t necessarily give me a whole lot of comfort that the networks are going to be able to weather a possible strike," says Allen Banks, executive media director for North America at Saatchi & Saatchi.
Even though programs like news and sports could continue in the midst of a writers’ and actors’ strike, says Banks, there is no substitute for the popular, scripted comedies and dramas.
"You can get sick watching football just as you can get sick on candy. It’s too much of a good thing," he says.
Media buyers may be glad to see that the networks are at least acknowledging the possibility of a strike, but many might like to see them devote a little less energy to the contingency plans and a little more to averting a strike altogether.
"I don’t think having a schedule full of reality shows is what anybody wants. A lot of these reality shows aren’t advertisable," says Shari Anne Brill, director of programming services at Carat.
"They’re wise to protect themselves, but the industry really needs to get together and prevent this from happening."
Then, of course, there is this season to think about. With ideas and resources already being refocused on next fall, there is the possibility that the second half of this season could suffer.
"How much can they stockpile? They can’t stockpile everything, they have to worry about this year," points out Andy Donchin, Carat’s senior vice president and national broadcast director.
"I get concerned that the quality is going to suffer; clearly it’s not going to be ‘A’ material. I would hope that everyone can come to their senses and hammer out an agreement. We have enough to worry about, and the networks have enough to worry about in this marketplace. It would be really nice if we all didn’t have to worry about this too."
Another point worth mentioning is that even the programs perceived as strikeproof, such as reality shows and special events, are not totally immune.
"It remains to be seen who would cross the lines, because almost everything needs at least some writing and acting," says OMD/BBDO’s Geraci.
If you ask the guilds, all this talk of stockpiling and sped-up production is only so much propaganda.
"It’s mostly rumors and innuendo, the usual saber-rattling that goes on before difficult negotiations like this," says Cheryl Rhoden, WGA assistant executive director.
According to Rhoden, the networks said the same thing before the last WGA strike in 1988. Now, as then, it will mean little in terms of action, she says.
"The reality is that they are busy writing for the current season. There isn’t a lot of increased production of current episodic shows, and our numbers indicate that there’s no real ramp-up in scripts being produced. The idea is to rattle the opposition."
The opposition is being fairly tight-lipped going into negotiations. A spokesman for the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers would say only that "we’re extremely hopeful and optimistic that an agreement can be reached."
Sources close to the producers note that AMPTP tried several times to set up early negotiations with the unions, but that the unions refused until last week when the January 22 date was set.
-Gabriel Spitzer is a staff writer for Media Life.
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