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confesses to some flubs
Some doozies among a slew of able predictions
By Andrew Wallenstein
TV critics like myself tend to take for granted the trust of our readers. With that mistaken presumption in mind, I'd like to renew a Media Life tradition and take the occasion of the new year to look back at what I wrote about TV in 2000.
It didn't take a Rhodes scholar to see the success of "Survivor" coming. But my favorite prediction of the year was actually a reversal of a statement I had made observing the droves of young viewers who tuned in that landmark CBS series: "There isn't a doubt in mind that CBS will escape the basement in the 18-49 demographic in 2001."
That statement came back to haunt me after reviewing the new shows CBS intended to keep the young influx around for the fall. I made sure to announce my about face: "With summer seeming like a distant memory and CBS's new shows filled with fogies like Bette Midler, Craig T. Nelson and Christine Baranski, expect its ratings to still skew old."
While every other TV critic alive bought CBS honcho Les Moonves' contention that CBS was a new-look network, my suspicions were confirmed during November sweeps. CBS finished a distant fourth among adults18-49.
Still, I blew a few other calls on CBS. Perhaps the dumbest sentence that came from me in 2000 was written after watching one episode of "Big Brother": "I must tip my hat to the minds behind the casting: They picked 10 interesting people who will clash mightily."
Though I was properly skeptical of CBS airing "Brother" five times a week, man oh man did I overestimate the cast chemistry.
The biggest new hit of the fall season, "C.S.I.," also never quite showed up on my radar screen. I panned the series, betting it would do only as well as its lead-in, "The Fugitive." As it turned out, "C.S.I." emerged, despite the weak performance of "Fugitive."
Of last year's biggest hit, ABC's "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire," I've been saying since its inception that its welcome would be worn out more quickly than you might expect. Its average audience has dropped by 3 million viewers this season, and its weekly quadruple helping will only further age it before its time. I also singled out ABC's Friday night lineup as the worst programming strategy of the season, and the cancellation of "Madigan Men" and "The Trouble With Normal" bore that out.
Elsewhere on the schedule, you've got to give me credit. Not only did I accurately forecast the mercifully quick demise of NBC's "The Michael Richards Show," "Daddio," and the overall meltdown of the Peacock's development slate, but foresaw the effect it would have on their executive ranks: "Unless potential breakout hits like 'Titans' or 'Deadline' become hits," I wrote, "Peacock pashas Garth Ancier and Scott Sassa are history."
Well, one out of two ain't bad.
On Fox, check out what I told you about the canceled "The $treet": "Without a solid lead-in, '$treet may struggle to eclipse the Nielsens notched in the same period with '[Party of] Five' or '[Get] Real.'" Or the successful "Boston Public": "The time slot is tough, but if [executive producer David E.] Kelley can keep up the quality, 'Boston' has the potential to slowly build into a hit much like '[The] Practice.'"
And I don't even have a crystal ball.
On cable, I rightfully warned you not to believe USA Cable president Stephen Chao when he said, "The loss of the WWF will have negligible effect on our ratings." TBS has since dethroned USA, which took a quick hit, dropping to sixth place in October, by 29 percent over last year.
What's more, I devoted an entire column to lambasting MTV for the lackluster installment of its programming centerpiece, "The Video Music Awards." A few days later, MTV reported an 18 percent drop from last year's "VMAs." As a suggestion for next year, I wrote, "The network's overall newfound programming thrust--emphasis on viewer interactivity--could yield a particularly interesting revamped 'VMA.'"
And wouldn't you know it, later that year MTV sister network VH1 coincidentally borrowed my interactive idea for its new awards show, "My VH1 Music Awards."
Regrettably, I haven't addressed the syndication market as much I would have liked to in 2000, but boy did I have "Dr. Laura" pegged from the get-go.
Despite the initial hype, I knew ratings would underwhelm because the host wasn't sticking to her nasty radio persona.
But I also cautioned, "As long as the ratings continue to droop, there's always hope that Schlessinger will return to her vicious self." Sure enough, she did eventually drop the charm-school routine, but it was too little too late to help her ratings.
Looking ahead to 2001, a new fleet of reality shows is trying to replicate the success of "Survivor." As your TV Svengali, look to me to make the tough call on every one of them. But don't forget to come back next January to call me on my 2001 predictions.
-Andrew Wallenstein is the television critic for Media Life.
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