By David Everitt

   Another year has come and gone, which means we’ve seen another12 months of hopeful predictions about the coming of interactive TV.
    If nothing else, the talk has intensified. And some actual services have been offered. Another year from now we might see some real progress in getting ITV out of industry bull sessions and into the home. 
   Then again, we might see just a new wave of Jetsons-like predictions.
   One thing that’s become more clear in recent months is the role that the cable-DBS competition will play in all this. A recent study from the Yankee Group defines how the struggle between cable and satellite might determine the shape of ITV.
    Both systems have started offering interactive options, but each is offering its own specialty and its own approach. For now, cable is concentrating on video on demand, while DBS is pushing personal video recorders.
    "For the short term, they’re both picking their sweet spots to get a foothold," says Mike Goodman, a senior analyst for the Yankee Group.
    Cable has gotten a later start in the interactive field because it has only recently started to get its digital set-top boxes out into the field, while DBS has always been digital. But now that cable is getting into the game, its ability to handle a two-way, high-speed interaction with consumers makes it an ideal vehicle for VOD.
    At the same time, Goodman points out, "Cable is uniquely positioned to offer video on demand because it ties in with its core video movie product. And it’s clearly a revenue opportunity since VOD’s theatrical-feature release window comes before the release window for PVRs."
    Goodman characterizes the DBS preference for PVRs as a matter of choosing by default "because DBS has a hard time technically in providing video on demand. With PVRs, it gets a video-on-demand-like functionality." Helping to generate interest in this area will be the availability of boxes that incorporate a convenient combination of PVR capabilities and basic DBS service.
   Once the cable industry lands more digital boxes on the tops of people’s TV sets, the competition between cable and DBS could spur the growth of interactive, according to the Yankee Group report. On the other hand, Goodman adds, there is also a chicken-or-egg dimension to this anticipated growth: it may take truly attractive interactive services to get people interested in acquiring the digital boxes in the first place.
   Some observers tout VOD and PVRs as the attractions that will rope people into the interactive tent. But will that really be enough? What about other ITV applications that cable and DBS can offer?
    The two services you hear the most about are the ability to select camera angles during sports broadcasts and the chance to click on ads or products of special interest.
    In technical terms, cable and DBS are on a level playing field as far as the camera-angle option is concerned, even though DBS doesn’t offer the same kind of high-speed return path enjoyed by digital cable. The data required to provide camera-angle alternatives can be compressed within a channel, in a similar way that some DVDs can offer different angles for a movie on disk.
    To some of us, this whole camera-angle thing might seem like a lot of unnecessary remote-control fussing. But Goodman believes consumers will respond to it. At least more than they will respond to click-on ads.
   "It’s a behavioral issue. Consumers understand the idea of alternate camera angles from watching football and other sports events. But as for click-on ads, that’s not something that they naturally do. It’s a learned behavior. There’s a lot of potential in click-on ads, but for now it’s not inherent in what they do."
    DirecTV has gone beyond just PVRs and has cast out various interactive lures to reel in consumers. The packages include Wink, TiVo, Microsoft TV and Ultimate TV, all of which, Goodman concedes, can get a tad confusing.
    "That’s the real challenge," he says. "The one thing that made DBS attractive in the beginning was that it was very simple. Just sign up and you get all these channels. Now it has grown more complex. How do you offer all these services without being confusing? To be frank, it remains to be seen how well they can do that."
    In this one area, Goodman says, cable may have an advantage for the time being. "It’s a matter of sales approach. With cable, you call up and get a customer service rep, and he or she will take you through the process. As opposed to the retail DBS experience."
    A recent change in the interactive competition is the introduction of high-speed, two-way satellite service by Starband. This could produce yet another shift in the battle of technologies between cable and DBS. Goodman likes to put this development in historical perspective.
    "The big thing is that this is a continual game of one-upsmanship. First, DBS offered more channels. Now cable is going digital with greater channel capacity. At one time, the cable industry said, ‘Well, we’ve got local stations.’ Now, with the Satellite Home Improvement Act, DBS can provide local channels. Cable then provided high-speed internet service – it goes on.
    "But it’s clearly important that DBS become a true internet provider. That said, satellite broadband should be strongest where cable is weakest, in rural markets."

-David Everitt covers technology for Media Life, writing from Huntington, New York.

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