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getting the big nods
'Survivor' doing damage, with more to come
By Kevin Downey
Jaws dropped when CBS risked sacrificing its biggest hit by pitting it directly against NBC’s powerful Thursday night lineup.
But it's five weeks into "Survivor II’s" run, and media researchers say CBS’s decision to compete directly against must-see TV is a strategy that’s working.
Moreover, they say CBS’s move may very well lead the network to a household ratings win by the end of the season in May.
"They will probably win because we are going into weeks and weeks of reruns," says Susan McClellan, national media manager at Empower Mediamarketing.
"We’ve seen historically that NBC does not do well with repeats on Thursday. I’d be surprised if anyone else but CBS will win."
For the season, which runs from October through May, CBS has an 8.6 household rating and 14 share. It’s been inching up to ABC, which has an 8.7/14 and should surpass it soon. NBC is trailing with an 8.3/13 and Fox has a 6.4/10.
CBS already has a lock on the February sweeps, when local ad rates are set, with a 9.1 to NBC’s 8.8, ABC’s 8.4, and Fox’s 6.5.
"CBS did not have anything in their arsenal that could have done as well," says Art Tatnell, senior vice president and director of media information and technology at Bates USA. "It hasn’t demolished ‘Friends’ but there’s nothing else out there that could have competed.
"And as long as they continue to be creative in the way that they market it and schedule it, ‘Survivor’ should continue. We foresee it doing well at least into next year."
CBS’s success comes as something of a surprise.
The network seemed to be stepping onto a land mine when it put "Survivor II" up against NBC’s Thursday night lineup.
NBC, after all, has been virtually unstoppable for more than a decade on Thursday night.
And the sophomore outing of CBS’s reality show was anything but a guaranteed success without the likes of Richard Hatch and Rudy to keep things interesting.
But "Survivor II" got a strong start when it was watched by about 38 percent of TV-viewing households after the Super Bowl in January. The show has since beaten "Friends" and other NBC shows with remarkably consistent ratings.
Since Super Bowl Sunday, "Survivor II’s" household ratings have been 17.3, 17.4, and last week had a 16.6.
The only dip in "Survivor’s" ratings came last week when NBC counterattacked with "Friends" and a special 20-minutes of outtakes from "Friends."
"Survivor II’s" household rating fell 4.6 percent from the week before.
"The previous week, the ratings had been up a bit and it looks like that increase came from women," says Susan Hajny, broadcast research manager at GSD&M.
"This week, the slip looks as if those women have gone away. Now it’s back to the core ‘Survivor’ audience."
Perhaps more impressive, "Survivor II’s" adult 18-49 rating, which is considered a more important audience by many advertisers, has been 11.9, 12.2, and 11.7 in the past three episodes, respectively.
As a point of comparison, the "Friends" hour last week averaged a 14.2 household rating and an 11.3 adult 18-49 rating.
"It’s clearly a tight race," says Deana Myers, an analyst at Paul Kagan Associates. "But the one thing that ‘Survivor II,’ and ‘Survivor’ in general, has given CBS is that it has really drawn in the 18-49 audience. That’s the most important part."
CBS has not limited its assault on NBC to the 8:00 hour, though. The network put its new "CSI" on after "Survivor II." That show has done well and held on to 85 percent of its lead-in’s household rating last week.
Now CBS is preparing to solidify the night.
"Survivor III" is all but set for the fall, and starting next Thursday, CBS will move "48 Hours" and replace it with "The Big Apple" at 10:00 p.m. to compete with NBC’s "ER."
The hour-long drama is produced by "NYPD Blue’s" David Milch and stars "Married with Children’s" Ed O’Neill.
Media researchers say only time will tell if the show can compete. But it points out CBS’s strategy of taking a night previously book-ended with the tepid "48 Hours" and "Diagnosis Murder" and turning it into a viable competitor to NBC.
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Kevin Downey is a staff writer for Media Life.
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