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begins to wrinkle
Latest vogue format settling into early middle age
By Gabriel Spitzer
To the delight of some, and the chagrin of many, the 1980s aren’t going away.
In radio, where the '80s format made a noisy entrance in 2000, the numbers from 2001 suggest that the nostalgia craze is settling down. But it doesn't show signs of being a soon-to-be-forgotten fad, as many speculated it would.
Rather, the format seems to be maturing, concludes a recent report by Coleman, a research company based in Research Triangle Park, N.C.
In 2000, the format went from a few quirky local stations to a full-blown national phenomenon. During Arbitron’s fall 2000 survey alone, 19 '80s stations popped up in the country’s top-75 markets. In 2001, through Arbitron’s summer book, 13 were born, suggesting that while the format continues to grow, the '80s baby boom has ended.
Six stations renounced the '80s format in 2001, including both '80s stations in Chicago and two stations—in San José, Calif. and Columbus, Ohio—that were among the first '80s-formatted stations in the nation.
"I think a lot of people who have jumped on this format bandwagon never actually did research or got a consultant to help them do it right, and now they’re going to be looking for the next bandwagon," says Warren Kurtzman, vice president of Coleman and author of the report.
Now that some of the novelty has worn off, the format’s overall performance has slumped somewhat. Based on Coleman’s performance index, which measures a station’s audience share against the average share of the particular market’s top-10 stations, '80s stations declined about 6 percent from Arbitron’s winter 2001 book to its summer 2001 book.
The appeal of the '80s format has also narrowed somewhat. Initially it found listeners of all ages, concentrated in the 18-44 demo.
But listening levels among younger audiences have fallen off significantly, leaving the format dependent on 25- to 34-year-olds. Forty-three percent of the format’s listening comes from this 10-year age span, while the 12-17 and 18-24 demos together account for just 12 percent.
"The 18-24 listeners were sampling these stations in pretty significant quantities when they launched," says Kurtzman. "They now are returning to whatever music they like. Even the latest music of the '80s format probably predated most of them."
The format’s narrow niche fits into radio’s trend toward more targeted demographic programming, though some question whether the format can survive with such a narrow appeal.
It does, however, give media buyers another way to reach young listeners in their buying prime—at least until those listeners pass into older demos.
"Ten years from now there’s probably going to be a '90s format," says Warren Edelman, partner and local broadcast manager at Mindshare.
"You can’t program a station to appeal to the masses anymore. What’s been happening is the formats are splintering off and they’re going after a narrower age cell. A station is not going after an 18-34 market, and it's got to come up with new formats. It’s going to continue to grow."
Discounting the stations that have defected from the format, the '80s stations that have been at it for at least a year boast a stable listenership. The 12 stations that have been using the '80s format over the course of four Arbitron books retained about 94 percent of their 18-49 audience share from the first to the fourth book.
"This certainly does not paint the picture of a format ‘exploding’ in popularity, but it also does not paint one of a passing fad or a ‘made-up’ format that will cease to exist in the next year," the report says.
Any new format is bound to have some falloff.
Kevin Gallagher, senior vice president and director of local investment at Starcom, says he doesn’t see the 6 percent decline as an indication that the format is failing. Nor is he worried by the loss of two-station competition within the '80s format in markets like Chicago, San Diego and Albuquerque.
"That would appear to be a normal falloff," he says. "In terms of one station or another falling by the wayside, depending on the size of the market there may not be room for two stations. There’s probably some tinkering that goes on, which is normal."
Many buyers see the '80s format as a natural outgrowth of a fragmenting "Oldies" market.
"Twenty years ago we used to talk about '60s formats and how maybe those had gone by the wayside. They’ve now been mushed in together into a '50s-'60s format. This is new enough that it will last a while, but 20 years from now the '70s and '80s will get mushed together," Gallagher says.
"It’s probably a relevant niche right now for the age group we’re talking about. I think a lot of marketers are looking to zero in on specific niches, lifestyles and passions. Whether that can sustain the format in the long term or not, I don’t know."
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'80s
Stations |
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| Arbitron Book | Adults 18-49 | Adults 25-54 |
| Fall 2000 | 4.0 (68) | 3.8 (66) |
| Winter 2001 | 4.3 (71) | 4.1 (70) |
| Spring 2001 | 4.1 (67) | 3.9 (66) |
| Summer 2001 | 4.1 (67) | 4.0 (67) |
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Source: Coleman, "'80s Insights
Summer 2001," based on Arbitron data. Performance index figured by
comparing station’s share to average share of top 10 stations in its
market. |
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'80s Audience Composition |
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| Demo |
Percentage of total audience |
| 12-17 | 2 |
| 18-24 | 10 |
| 25-34 | 43 |
| 35-44 | 28 |
| 45-54 | 11 |
| 55-64 | 3 |
| 65+ | 1 |
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Source: Coleman, "'80s Insights Summer 2001," based on Arbitron data, Summer 2001 survey, Monday-Sunday, 6 a.m. to Midnight. |
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'80s
Stations |
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| Arbitron Survey | Males | Females |
| Fall 2000 | 103 | 97 |
| Winter 2001 | 101 | 99 |
| Spring 2001 | 101 | 100 |
| Summer 2001 | 104 | 96 |
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Source: Coleman,
"'80s
Insights Summer 2001," based on Arbitron data. Composition index is
figured by comparing a given demographic’s audience share for a station to
that demographic’s audience share in the station’s market.
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January 4, 2002 © 2002 Media Life
-Gabriel Spitzer is a staff writer for Media Life.
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