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sweeps inflict
Increase in midseason reruns drives off viewers
By Elizabeth White
Everyone in media knows the evils sweeps inflict on TV schedules four times each year.
Networks develop improbable plots and incongruent stunt casting for otherwise good shows and roll out cheesy miniseries and meaningless awards specials.
All of it is done in the name of boosting ratings to allow the networks' affiliates to get higher ad rates, and no matter that everyone knows that the sweeps system is both antiquated and inaccurate.
But sweeps have another deleterious effect, according to a new study by Magna Global USA, one that's far less talked about.
Sweeps are a major cause of viewer erosion.
To balance off the high cost of sweeps programming, networks are forced into a cycle of airing reruns during midseason, and the effect is to drive away viewers they worked so hard to attract during sweeps.
Reruns generally earn ratings 30 percent below the originals.
"The only thing that would prevent [rerun audience erosion] from happening is getting rid of sweeps," says Steve Sternberg, senior vice president and director of audience analysis at Magna Global USA and author of the study.
"That isn’t going to happen for a while, but if it did the networks wouldn’t have to stockpile their programs for the sweeps."
Since 1986 the number of repeats in December, January and March has steadily risen, as networks have stretched the 22 episodes of a typical season order into an eight-month TV season.
As recently as 1986, only 13 percent of programming on the four broadcast networks was repeated during December, January and March.
Last season, reruns made up 40 percent of programming on the six broadcast networks during those same three months.
"This started several years ago," says Sternberg.
"The May sweeps are very important for the affiliates, and since the late 1980s, the networks have decided to stretch the season into May. But they aren’t making any more episodes for the season."
As a result, there’s a crash of reruns in the months after the November and February sweeps, and the viewers leave for other options.
January bears the rerun burden because it’s one of the less desirable months for advertisers.
The problem can’t be solved by simply making more episodes because networks only break even on the first run of a show. It’s on the reruns that the networks start to make money.
"The real problem is that the networks make their profits during repeats," says Sternberg.
"So the repeats will always be there. It’s a matter of when. The first quarter has a lower advertiser demand, with no major holidays, so it makes sense to put the repeats on then."
Pushing back the start of the season to November isn’t much of an option either, since the fourth quarter is so significant to advertisers.
"The fourth quarter is a very important time, and viewers are used to watching new TV after Labor Day. If they pushed the season back, they may not be able to get the audience back from the summer," says Sternberg.
"That’s why you’ve seen the reality shows in the summer, and to some degree, it’s been working [at retaining broadcast audience]."
But the summer, in which repeats make up 70 percent of the programming, is the best example of how broadcast reruns have sent viewers to cable.
Overall, TV usage is down about 10 percent in the summer compared to the fall, but the broadcast ratings go down about 30 percent, while basic cable’s ratings go up about 6 percent.
Not surprisingly, after the summer, some of the strongest months for cable are December, January and March.
During those months, cable earns household and adult 18-49 ratings that are 7 to 8 percent higher than its average for the October to May broadcast season, thanks to the lower competition reruns provide.
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Broadcast
Network Repeats |
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| 1996/97 | 1998/99 | 1999/00 | 2000/01 | |
| October | 13 | 8 | 16 | 11 |
| November | 6 | 15 | 9 | 8 |
| December | 47 | 49 | 40 | 49 |
| January | 25 | 31 | 29 | 36 |
| February | 8 | 8 | 13 | 9 |
| March | 7 | 43 | 39 | 35 |
| April | 29 | 35 | 27 | 28 |
| May | 28 | 18 | 26 | 25 |
| June | 78 | 76 | 71 | 73 |
| July | 81 | 76 | 70 | 71 |
| August | 77 | 78 | 67 | 67 |
| September | 37 | 49 | 67* | 49 |
| Dec., Jan., March | 36 | 41 | 36 | 40 |
| Oct.-May | 24 | 26 | 25 | 26 |
| Oct.-Sept. | 40 | 41 | 39 | 39 |
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*Summer Olympics aired in Sept. 2000,
delaying season by two weeks Source: Magna Global USA analysis of Nielsen data |
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Original Versus Repeat Household Ratings |
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| 2000/01 | 6 Network Average HH Rating |
Total Ad Supported Cable Rating |
||
| Original | Repeat | % Diff | ||
| October | 7.4 | 5.5 | -26 | 23.1 |
| November | 7.5 | 5.5 | -27 | 24.8 |
| December | 7.7 | 5.3 | -31 | 25.8 |
| January | 7.2 | 5.3 | -26 | 24.9 |
| February | 7.3 | 5.2 | -29 | 23.7 |
| March | 6.7 | 5.1 | -24 | 24.5 |
| April | 6.4 | 4.7 | -27 | 23.6 |
| May | 6.8 | 4.3 | -37 | 22.1 |
| June | 5.3 | 4.3 | -19 | 24.4 |
| July | 5.3 | 4.2 | -21 | 24.5 |
| August | 5.0 | 4.3 | -14 | 25.4 |
| September | 6.5 | 4.5 | -31 | 26.9 |
| Average | 6.8 | 4.6 | -32 | 24.6 |
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Source: Magna Global USA analysis of
Nielsen data |
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Original Versus Repeat Adult 18-49 Ratings |
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| 2000/01 |
6 Network Average A18-49 Rating |
Total Ad Supported Cable Rating |
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| Original | Repeat | % Diff | ||
| October | 4.0 | 3.6 | -10 | 11.5 |
| November | 4.3 | 3.5 | -19 | 12.6 |
| December | 4.2 | 3.0 | -29 | 13.1 |
| January | 4.1 | 3.2 | -22 | 12.5 |
| February | 4.2 | 3.3 | -21 | 11.8 |
| March | 3.6 | 3.0 | -17 | 12.0 |
| April | 3.4 | 2.8 | -18 | 11.4 |
| May | 3.8 | 2.4 | -37 | 10.6 |
| June | 2.7 | 2.2 | -19 | 11.7 |
| July | 2.8 | 2.1 | -25 | 11.7 |
| August | 2.6 | 2.2 | -15 | 11.9 |
| September | 3.7 | 2.5 | -32 | 13.1 |
| Average | 3.8 | 2.5 | -34 | 12.1 |
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Source: Magna Global USA analysis of
Nielsen data |
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December 5, 2001 © 2001 Media Life
-Elizabeth White is a staff writer for Media Life.
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