Buyers betting NBC wins the season

The Winners

CBS's 'Education of Max Bickford'

Fox's '24'

'NBC is strong this season on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday and is much improved on Monday and possibly Tuesday.'

The Losers

CBS's 'Ellen'

NBC's 'Emeril'

Buyers betting
NBC wins the season

Fox a close second for 18-49 and 25-54 viewers

By Kevin Downey

    The fall television season doesn’t officially kick off for another three weeks, and with the networks staggering premiere dates, it’ll be months before the complete lineup is underway.
    But that hasn’t stopped media researchers from picking the winners and losers of the new season.
    NBC will win as it did last year, they predict, with Fox trailing by tenths of a rating point.
    "NBC and Fox are going to go for broke in the 18-49 and 25-54 demos," says Tom Watson, vice president and research director of Initiative Media’s Pacific region.
    "NBC will eke out a win, probably only because more women are watching TV than men. But it will be infinitesimal over Fox, which will do well with men 18-49 and 25-54."
    Roy Rothstein, vice president and director of national broadcast research at Zenith Media, agrees.
    "NBC will be the returning champ. They came out the No. 1 network last season, despite the XFL and despite the assault on Thursday night" by CBS and its winning "Survivor" series.
    Fox will probably nab the younger audience, like adults 18-34, while CBS and ABC will duke it out for the considerably less important household and total-viewer demos.
    Media researchers say each network has cobbled together a decent schedule, reflecting both the advent of the reality show genre and lessons learned from relying too heavily on hit shows like "Millionaire," in the case of ABC.
   "NBC is strong this season on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday and is much improved on Monday and possibly Tuesday," says Rothstein.
    The Peacock network, however, may also hold the distinction of having the first show canceled.
    The fact that most of the pre-"Emeril" buzz involves Emeril himself defending the show and the quality of his acting does not bode well for its future.
    NBC has a reality show arsenal at its disposal to patch any rough spots in midseason, though. Both "Fear Factor" and "Spy TV" are expected back after highly successful runs this summer.
    Still, credit for the strongest overall lineup of shows goes to Fox.
    Its schedule is unchanged on Saturday through Monday and it has strengthened its Tuesday lineup, which starts with "That '70s Show" and ends with "24." That drama is thought to be one of the best this coming fall.
    And it has returning hits like "Temptation Island 2" filling in its weak Thursday night.
    But its airing of Major League Baseball and the World Series in October may very well hurt Fox. Much of its schedule had to be pushed back until November or December, which could give its competitors enough time to establish hits in highly contested time slots.
    CBS, meanwhile, has the luxury of having hits such as "Survivor" and "CSI" returning to its schedule. And it has what many media pundits expect to be one of the season’s biggest hits with "The Education of Max Bickford."
    Like NBC, though, CBS will probably be saddled with a few early casualties.
    "‘Ellen’ and ‘Danny’ are going to be among the first to go," predicts Rothstein.
    ABC will have four shows returning that did well in midseason, including "My Wife & Kids" and "What About Joan."
    Moreover, it has lowered its dependence on "Millionaire" to two episodes per week. And the network is attempting to counter the game show’s older audience skew with its Monday celebrity edition.
    Both UPN and the WB are also expected to do fairly well this season.
    UPN’s "Enterprise" is the latest installment in the "Star Trek" franchise. Some researchers are predicting it will do a bit better than its predecessor, "Voyager."
    And just about every media pundit is saying that the WB’s "Smallville" will be a hit. The show is about Superman when he was a teenager and follows the WB’s successful "Gilmore Girls" on Tuesday nights.
    Perhaps the biggest change for this season, which Nielsen officially starts tracking on Monday, September 17^th, is the not-unexpected proliferation of reality shows.
    Most will be of the short-run variety, and each of the Big Three networks has at least one that is generating high expectations from media researchers.
    ABC’s "The Runner" will debut in January in "Monday Night Football’s" time slot. And in addition to "Survivor 3: Africa," CBS has "The Amazing Race," which will premiere on September 5^th. NBC has "Lost," which will run through early October in "Ed’s" slot.
    While few reality shows are expected to break out like "Survivor," the shows should have a positive impact on viewership for the broadcast networks.
    "That’s where it helps," says Initiative’s Watson. "Even if you only have six weeks of a highly rated program, it could help a show that you put on after it. ‘CSI,’ for example, benefited a great deal from having ‘Survivor 2’ as its lead-in.
    "And anything that leads to fewer repeats is good. Plus some of those shows are bringing people back to the broadcast networks because they are offering something different."

Fall Network TV Schedule Premiere dates in red
Net	7:00- 7:30	7:30- 8:00	8:00- 8:30	8:30- 9:00	9:00-9:30	9:30-10:00	10:00- 10:30		10:30- 11:00
Sunday
ABC	THE WONDERFUL WORLD OF DISNEY				ALIAS		THE PRACTICE
	SEPT. 23 - premieres with A Bug's Life				SEPT. 30		SEPT. 23 (2-hour, 9-11P)
CBS	60 MINUTES		EDUCATION OF MAX BICKFORD		CBS SUNDAY NIGHT MOVIE
	SEPT. 23		SEPT. 23		SEPT. 23 - premiere title TBD
FOX	FUTU- RAMA	KING OF THE HILL	THE SIMP- SONS	MAL- COLM IN THE MIDDLE	THE X-FILES
	DEC. 9	NOV. 4	NOV. 4	NOV. 4	NOV. 4
NBC	DATELINE		WEAKEST LINK		LAW AND ORDER: CRIMINAL INTENT		UC: UNDER- COVER
	SEPT. 9		SEPT. 9		SEPT. 30		SEPT. 30
WB	RIPLEY'S (R) / NO BOUNDARIES*		STEVE HAR- VEY	MEN, WOMEN & DOGS	NIKKI	OFF CENTRE
	SEPT. 30 / DEC. 2		OCT. 7	OCT. 7	OCT. 7	OCT. 7
Monday
Net	8:00-8:30		8:30-9:00		9:00- 9:30	9:30- 10:00	10:00- 10:30	10:30- 11:00
ABC	WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE -- Celebrity Edition				MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL THE RUNNER 9-10P/THE COURT 10-11P
	SEPT. 17				MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL - SEPT. 10, THE RUNNER/THE COURT - JANUARY 7, 2002
CBS	KING OF QUEENS		YES, DEAR		EVERY- BODY LOVES RAY- MOND	BECKER	FAMILY LAW
	SEPT. 17		SEPT. 17		SEPT. 17	SEPT. 24	SEPT. 17
FOX	BOSTON PUBLIC				ALLY MCBEAL
	OCT. 22				OCT. 22
NBC	WEAKEST LINK				THIRD WATCH		CROSSING JORDAN
	SEPT. 17				SEPT. 17		SEPT. 17
UPN	THE HUGHLEYS		ONE ON ONE		THE PAR- KERS	GIRL- FRIENDS
	SEPT. 3		SEPT. 3		SEPT. 10	SEPT. 10
WB	7TH HEAVEN				ANGEL
	SEPT. 24				SEPT. 24
Tuesday
ABC	DHARMA & GREG		WHAT ABOUT JOAN		BOB PATTER- SON	SPIN CITY	PHILLY
	SEPT. 18 (1-hour 8-9P)		SEPT. 25		SEPT. 25	SEPT. 18 (1-HOUR 9-10P)	SEPT. 18
CBS	JAG				THE GUARDIAN		JUDGING AMY
	SEPT. 18				SEPT. 18		SEPT. 18
FOX	THAT '70S SHOW		UNDECLARED		24
	SEPT. 18		SEPT. 18		OCT. 30
NBC	EMERIL		THREE SISTERS		FRASIER	SCRUBS	DATELINE
	SEPT. 18		SEPT. 18		SEPT. 18 (1-hour 9-10P)	SEPT. 25	SEPT. 25
UPN	BUFFY, THE VAMPIRE SLAYER				ROSWELL
	OCT. 2				OCT. 9
WB	GILMORE GIRLS				SMALLVILLE
	OCT. 9 (2-hour 8-10P)				OCT. 16
Wednesday
ABC	MY WIFE AND KIDS		ACCORDING TO JIM		THE DREW CAREY SHOW	THE JOB	20/20 / NYPD BLUE
	SEPT. 19 (1-hour 8-9P)		SEPT. 26		SEPT. 19 (1-hour 9-10P)	SEPT. 26	20/20 - SEPT. 5, NYPD BLUE - NOV. 7 (previews NOV. 6, Tues. 10-11P)
CBS	60 MINUTES II				THE AMAZING RACE		WOLF LAKE
	SEPT. 19				SEPT. 5		SEPT. 12
FOX	COMEDY WHEEL		GROUNDED FOR LIFE		TITUS	BERNIE MAC
	NOV. 7		SEPT. 19, NOV. 7		NOV. 7	NOV. 7
NBC	ED				WEST WING		LAW AND ORDER
	OCT. 17				SEPT. 19		SEPT. 19
UPN	STAR TREK: ENTERPRISE				SPECIAL UNIT 2
	SEPT. 26 (2-hour 8-10P)				OCT. 3
WB	DAWSON'S CREEK				FELICITY / GLORY DAYS
	OCT. 3				FELICITY - OCT. 3, GLORY DAYS - JANUARY 2002 (pending)
Thursday
ABC	WHOSE LINE IS IT ANYWAY?		WHOSE LINE IS IT ANYWAY?		WHO WANTS TO BE A MILLIONAIRE		PRIME- TIME THURS.
	SEPT. 6		SEPT. 6		SEPT. 13		SEPT. 6
CBS	SURVIVOR 3: AFRICA				C.S.I.		THE AGENCY
	OCT. 11				SEPT. 20		SEPT. 20
FOX	FAMILY GUY		THE TICK		TEMPTATION ISLAND 2
	DEC. 6 (pending)		DEC. 6 (pending)		NOV. 1 (previews OCT. 31, Wednesday 9-10P)
NBC	FRIENDS		INSIDE SCHWARTZ		WILL & GRACE	JUST SHOOT ME	ER
	SEPT. 20		SEPT. 20		SEPT. 20	SEPT. 20	SEPT. 20
UPN	WWF SMACKDOWN
	AUGUST 16
WB	POPSTARS 2		ELIMIDATE DELUXE		CHARMED
	OCT. 4 (1-hour 8-9P)		OCT. 11		SEPT. 27 (2-hour 8-10P)
Friday
ABC	THE MOLE 2: THE NEXT BETRAYAL				THIEVES		ONCE AND AGAIN / 20/20
	SEPT. 21				SEPT. 21		ONCE AND AGAIN - SEPT. 21, 20/20 - DEC. 21
CBS	THE ELLEN SHOW		DANNY		THAT'S LIFE		48 HOURS
	SEPT. 21 (prvw SEPT. 17, Mon. 930-10P)		SEPT. 21		SEPT. 21		SEPT. 21
FOX	DARK ANGEL				PASADENA
	SEPT. 21				SEPT. 21
NBC	PROVIDENCE				DATELINE		LAW AND ORDER: SVU
	SEPT. 21				SEPT. 21		SEPT. 21
UPN	UPN MOVIE
	SEPT. 21 - premieres with repeat of The Fifth Element
WB	SABRINA, TEENAGE WITCH		MAYBE IT'S ME		REBA	RAISING DAD
	SEPT. 14		SEPT. 14		SEPT. 14	SEPT. 14
Saturday
ABC	ABC BIG PICTURE SHOW / SAT MOVIE
	SEPT. 22 - premieres with repeat of The Peacemaker
CBS	TOUCHED BY AN ANGEL				CITIZEN BAINES		THE DISTRICT
	SEPT. 22				SEPT. 22		SEPT. 22
FOX	COPS		COPS II		AMERICA'S MOST WANTED
	SEPT. 1 (Palm Beach)		SEPT. 1 (Atlanta - original)		SEPT. 1
NBC	NBC SATURDAY NIGHT MOVIE
	SEPT. 22 - premieres with Back To The Future

-Kevin Downey is a staff writer for Media Life.

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