Buyers: 'Survivor' will eat NBC's Thursday

'NBC is definitely on a decline. They need to be more forward-thinking and grow more shows that fit with that feel they’ve developed. If they’re not careful, they could lose more this year.'

Buyers: 'Survivor' will
eat NBC's Thursday

Expect further damage to aging Peacock lineup

By Elizabeth White

    The thing about reality shows is that their life spans are unpredictable, with many falling nearly as quickly as they rise.
    Trouble is, they can do an awful lot of damage while they're at full steam.
    The question for the upcoming season's Thursday night primetime schedule: How much longer can CBS's "Survivor" franchise win against a quality, scripted series like NBC's top-rated "Friends"?
    The answer, say media buyers: at least another full broadcast season, or through two more editions of the reality series.
    And if that is so, the upcoming season could be even rougher on NBC’s Thursday lineup than last spring was, when "Survivor 2" was pitted against "Friends."
    "We know that people are very fickle, but CBS is being careful with ‘Survivor,’ and at this point people still seem hooked on it," says Chris Allen, national broadcast supervisor at GSD&M.
    "There will probably be a couple more rounds before we see a significant drop-off."
    Unlike "Who Wants to be a Millionaire," which slid in popularity with overexposure, "Survivor" episodes have had a limited run on CBS. It’s only the hype that’s been all-encompassing.
    "‘Survivor’ had regular-episode competition in the spring, and NBC threw everything at it. ‘Survivor’s’ going to be as strong as it was. It’s not going to get that old," says Stacey Lynn Koerner, vice president of broadcast research at TN Media.
     "It certainly appeared to everyone that the hype was much less, but the ratings weren’t. The winter ‘Survivor’ started with a strong rating and kept it throughout."
    The other thing helping "Survivor’s" longevity is NBC’s aging Thursday night.
    The upcoming season will mark the eighth year for "Friends" and "ER," the night’s two anchors. "Just Shoot Me" is entering its fifth season, and "Will and Grace" is starting its fourth.
    This year’s rookie at 8:30 p.m., "Inside Schwartz," hardly counts, since most folks don’t expect it to live past New Year’s.
    "NBC is definitely on a decline," says Allen. "They need to be more forward-thinking and grow more shows that fit with that feel they’ve developed. If they’re not careful, they could lose more this year."
    Koerner agrees.
    "For Thursday night the strategy for NBC's competitors for the longest time was to just stay floating. ABC is still doing that, but NBC will definitely erode more this year," she says.
    Fox, for its part, is following CBS’s lead and hoping to capitalize on NBC’s problems by scheduling some of its edgiest fare for Thursday.
    The controversial cartoon "Family Guy" leads at 8 p.m., followed by the quirky, live-action cartoon "The Tick" at 8:30 p.m. and the second installment of "Temptation Island" at 9 p.m.
    As a result, Thursday may have one of the most-contested hours of the week at 9 p.m., with each network scheduling a bona-fide hit show for that hour.
    Fox’s "Temptation Island" will vie with ABC’s "Millionaire," CBS’s "CSI" and NBC’s "Will and Grace" and "Just Shoot Me" for the audience’s attention.
    "Nine p.m. will be a very close adult 18-49 race," says Koerner. "It’ll probably be NBC and Fox for the adults 18-49. ‘CSI’ might get older with ‘Temptation Island’ up against it.
    "That leaves CBS with only one strong adult 18-49 hour on Thursday [‘Survivor’]. That won’t be enough to win the night."
    Media buyers still give NBC’s "ER" the win at 10 p.m., particularly over CBS’s rookie "The Agency."
    CBS could do more damage, they say, by shifting "CSI" to the later hour and hammocking "The Agency" in between "Survivor" and "CSI."
    On the smaller networks, UPN is sticking with its successful, young-male-skewing "WWF Smackdown!" on Thursday, while the WB is trying two half-hour reality series, "Popstars 2" and "Elimidate Deluxe," followed by "Charmed."

Fall 2001 Primetime Thursday Schedule New shows in beige New time slots in blue
Net	8:00	8:30		9:00		9:30	10:00	10:30
ABC	Whose Line is it Anyway		Whose Line is it Anyway	Who Wants to be a Millionaire			Primetime Thursday
CBS	Survivor 2			CSI			The Agency
NBC	Friends		Inside Schwartz	Will and Grace	Just Shoot Me		ER
Fox	Family Guy		The Tick	Temptation Island
UPN	WWF Smackdown
WB	Popstars 2	Elimidate Deluxe		Charmed
Source: Bates USA MediaScan

-Elizabeth White is a staff writer for Media Life.

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