By Gabriel Spitzer

  Michael Jordan has sent shivers of anticipation through the sports world by hinting that he just might return to basketball.
   It's just the sort of news the NBA needs, and the timing couldn’t have been better.
   Last week the league wrapped up its worst-rated season ever on television, with negotiations for the all-important television contracts mere months away.
    Jordon’s comment about coming out of retirement, aired in an interview during NBC’s playoff coverage on Saturday, is just the latest bit of good news for the league.
   It's news that the NBA is hoping will offset double-digit ratings declines on both NBC and the Turner cable networks.
   Basketball is a star’s sport, and many of its problems can be easily traced back to Jordon’s retirement.
    "There is no question that Michael Jordan’s exit from the NBA is a huge determining factor in the problems the NBA has experienced over the past few months," says Dean Bonham, chairman of the Bonham Group, a Denver-based sports consulting firm.
   But whether "His Airness" actually returns, or whether this is only so much buzz, remains to be seen.
   "The league would do anything they can to get him back. There’s no other star like Michael Jordan. They’ve tried, but they have not been able to create one. 
   "It’s the greatest thing that could happen to the league, but personally, I don’t think it’s ever going to happen," says Betty Pat McCoy, senior vice president, director of national broadcast at GSD&M.
   Even if Jordan does return, it might amount to only a short, albeit sharp, ratings spike.
   "Let me tell you this: there is no negative scenario for the NBA if Michael Jordan returns. The only question is whether the benefits will be short, medium or long-term. Who knows how that would affect negotiations, but I’ll say this: it couldn’t hurt," says Bonham.
    Jordan or no Jordan, the NBA is looking much better heading into contract negotiations than it did a month ago, when it appeared that basketball might become the first sport in many years to take a decrease in television rights fees. Negotiations are likely to commence after the NBA championship in June.
   Most importantly, ABC and ESPN have expressed serious interest in buying basketball rights. At the same time, NBC now needs basketball more than ever; with the XFL debacle and the departure of baseball, basketball is the foundation of NBC’s sports slate.
   This has all the makings of a bidding war that could end up giving the NBA yet another hefty increase in rights fees.
   That’s bad news for media buyers, who will likely have to contend with swollen ad rates.
    "Now you’ve got two networks bidding for it, and NBC doesn’t want to lose it. I think ABC and ESPN are going to be very aggressive, and they’ll probably get it, unless NBC completely shocks us and really pulls out the checkbook," says one media director at a major agency.
   "That plays right into the NBA’s hands. It’s frustrating to have leagues continue to demand these high prices when it’s not reflected in the ratings."
   On their own, those ratings do not suggest much optimism on the league’s part.
   The regular season wrapped up last week, giving the NBA on NBC a record-low regular-season average of 3.0, down 12 percent from last year.
    But when you consider that at the All-Star break, the NBA’s ratings were hanging 21 percent below the average a year earlier, the picture brightens somewhat.
   Turner Sports, the NBA’s cable partner, also lifted its ratings during the second half of the season, to finish up at an average 1.1, 15 percent under last year’s 1.3 average.
   Last weekend began two months of NBA post-season play, most of which will air on NBC. Turner shares parts of the first two playoff rounds and will sign off in mid-May.
    NBC’s three Saturday games averaged a 4.1 rating in Nielsen’s overnight metered markets—off 7 percent from last year. The Sunday games clocked an average overnight rating of 5.4, representing a steeper 14 percent drop.
   It’s worth noting that Jordan’s interview ran during the evening game on Saturday, which may have contributed to the game’s above-average 4.9 rating. The NBA has to be hoping that this is a taste of things to come.
    Turner’s four games from Saturday through Monday averaged a Nielsen national rating of 1.7, down 15 percent from the same games last year.
   "What’s killing us is that the average margin of victory for those games is 20.5 points. Obviously you get a drop in viewership during a blowout," says a spokesperson for Turner Sports.
    Meanwhile, NBC is reportedly having trouble liquidating its postseason ad inventory. As of mid-April, media buyers were estimating that 40 percent of the inventory remained unsold, with gaping holes during some of the early playoff series.
   NBC declined to comment on its ad sales.
   NBC has yet to come down on its ad rates, says GSD&M’s McCoy, but the network can’t afford to play chicken with advertisers much longer.
   "A month ago, NBC said it would be tight in the playoffs. It certainly isn’t tight. They’re trying to include it [NBA] in every package they sell. And they’re going to have a tough time selling it, because the ratings just aren’t there to back it up," says GSD&M’s McCoy.

April 25, 2001 © 2001 Media Life

-Gabriel Spitzer is a staff writer for Media Life

Printer-Friendly Version |  Send to a Friend
Cover Page | Contact Us