Talk about a dark horse.
      Going into the critical May sweeps, ABC among the big three networks would appear to have the least chance of winning the season in any category.
     Its flagship franchise, "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire," is aging quickly and losing some of its ratings power due to overexposure. 
    All of the shows the network developed for the fall have either already been canceled or have been flops in the ratings. And ABC's failure to adequately replace its teen-oriented T.G.I.F block of Friday programs has further raised the median age of the network's viewership.
     Not to mention, ABC can't catch a break in the buzz, with the CBS and NBC dogfight garnering most of the attention.
     Yet for all that, ABC stands a surprisingly good chance of winning all top three Nielsen categories when the season concludes at the end of May.
     The reason: While ABC may lack shows that pull big ratings or major buzz, it has managed to keep from finishing last in any particular area and often finds itself near the top, if not on top.
     "It’s amazing that all of the networks are so close," says Jeff Bader, executive vice president of ABC Entertainment. "If you look at the overall landscape, we're not last on any night. We're No. 1 on two nights, and ‘Millionaire’ has improved all of the time periods it's in."
     According to yesterday's season-to-date numbers, ABC is currently in first place for total viewers by fewer than 250,000 persons, tied with Fox for second place in adults 18-49, only two-tenths of a rating point behind first-place NBC, and trailing CBS for first place in the household rating by one-tenth of a rating point.
     All of which means, that if things go ABC's way during the May sweeps period, the network could win the season in total viewers, households, and adults 18-49.
     Most media analysts think that, although a sweep by ABC is unlikely, the network may win in either households or total viewers.
     "ABC is going for household win. They want to say that they're No. 1 and that they win the most number of nights during the week," says Stacy Lynn Koerner, vice president of broadcast research at TN Media.
     Angela Miller, vice president and associate director of national broadcast at GSD&M, is less optimistic about ABC’s prospects. "ABC might eke by with a win in total persons," she says.
    ABC’s sweeps strategy is to try to win all categories by airing what’s been working for them so far this season: "Millionaire" and made-for-TV movies.
    "'Millionaire' has carried them for a while. They're depending a lot on their theatricals as well as 'Millionaire,'" says Miller.
     In the season-to-date rankings, ABC has had seven of the top 10 made-for-TV movies among total viewers, and all five of the top five original movies among adults 18-49, including the season’s most watched movie, "Me and My Shadows: Life with Judy Garland."
     Along with the traditional sweeps stunt of a celebrity themed "Millionaire," ABC will run a couples edition of the game show, in which couples compete as a team for the prize money.
     In the made-for-TV movie department, ABC has an original movie on Shirley Temple and a miniseries on Anne Frank.
     "We do have some very strong miniseries. Their ratings are significantly higher than the average movie. 'Anne Frank' is exceptionally good," says Bader.
     The network will also run a full slate of feature films, including "Meet Joe Black," "Tarzan," "Armageddon," and "Air Force One."

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