The differences between this year’s and last year’s upfronts are already shaping up to be as dramatic as night and day. 
   The sellers’ market of last year is quickly giving way to a buyers’ market this year.
   And one of the first clues as to this difference is the change in mood surrounding the pre-upfront posturing by both buyers and sellers.
   On Monday, Bill McGowan, vice president of ad sales at Discovery Networks U.S., fired the first shot. 
   The typically bullish McGowan announced that growth in cable would compensate for losses in broadcasting this year, making the overall upfront marketplace flat.
   While media buyers agree that cable will do better than the networks this year, many see McGowan’s prediction as a best-case scenario for the sellers. 
    They point to a wealth of economic factors—fewer buyers in the marketplace, smaller ad budgets, and lower demand—as indications that spending should be down significantly from last year.
   "The thing to look at is all the dollars available for spending in this year. All indications are that the number of dollars will be down this year. The only question is by how much," says Jack Myers, chief economist and CEO of Myers Reports. "We think the total upfront will be down, by about $200 to $500 million, not flat."
      Last year, $8.1 billion was committed in the broadcast upfront, and $4.5 billion in the cable upfront. And fewer ad dollars should mean lower prices for buyers.
   "In my experience, when the marketplace gets soft, networks lower their rates to encourage advertisers to spend," says Allen Banks, executive media director at Saatchi & Saatchi.
    Bob Igiel, president of broadcast operations at the Media Edge, agrees. "There is no way there’s going to be an increase in pricing this year. Period."
   Analysts say that instability in the economy is one of the major reasons that prices should be lower in this year’s upfronts.
   "If an advertiser is looking at this year and depressed about what their sales will be, they’ll cut their ad budgets," says Anne Thompson, a media analyst at Wedbush Morgan Securities. "There will be less pricing pressure in the upfronts. This year will be the reverse of last year."
   Thompson also says that some of the other factors driving last year’s upfront have all but disappeared this year.
   "There’s no election, no census, no Olympics, and no dot.coms. There will be much less demand," says Thompson.
    And there’s also the uncertainty caused by the impending writers’ strike.
    "Much depends on the writers’ strike and what the networks debut and plan for replacement programs," says John Rash, senior vice president and director of broadcast negotiations at Campbell Mithun. "There’s a unique confluence of events in 2001 that would lead to a more cautious approach to the upfronts."
    Buyers say that where McGowan might be most accurate is in suggesting that cable will do well in a tighter marketplace.
    With fewer ad dollars to go around, buyers might find cheaper, more targeted media more attractive.
    "The reason cable may go up is because it’s still a strong value in comparison to other programs," says Jamie Rhind, media director at Avrett, Free & Ginsberg. "Cable is priced very attractively relative to its competitors in network and syndication. The demand will stay high for cable, and with reduced ad budgets, it may play a more important role."

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