The latest circulation figures reveal that cracks are beginning to show at The Mirror, the UK mass-market tabloid. 
    Under the supercharged editorship of Piers Morgan, The Mirror has enjoyed some circulation success, and it seemed at least for a time that his attempts to steer the paper away from head to head competition with Rupert Murdoch's Sun and carve out a new niche as a "tabloid with heart" had been paying off.
  But sales in January and February have slipped from last year, and it seems a tabloid circulation war could be brewing.
    Behind last month's headline circulation figures of 2.2 million copies per day, analysts have focused on the fact that full-price sales of The Mirror were just over 1.5 million.
  That's just half of The Sun's full-price sales and 600,000 behind Associated Newspapers' mid-market tabloid, The Daily Mail.
   The Mirror's problems do not stop there. 
   The title is also threatened by the resurgence of The Express and The Star newspapers, which were both recently acquired by OK! magazine proprietor Richard Desmond. 
   The link up with Desmond could turn these titles into formidable opponents as he brings his close contact with the stars to a market where a good celebrity splash can add 50,000 copies to a tabloid's circulation.
  Morgan is one of the UK newspaper industry's brightest stars. He was the UK's youngest-ever national newspaper editor when he took control of The News of the World at just 28. His many supporters would argue that he was up to the challenge of defending The Mirror.
    The question is whether Trinity Mirror has the stomach for the fight. 
    There is increasing concern that the Mirror's circulation could end up slipping away because its owners lack the resources or management experience to do anything other than run it for cash. 
   Analysts do not doubt that The Mirror could survive for years, but they are concerned about the publisher's ability to reverse a declining circulation against Rupert Murdoch's News International and Associated Newspapers.
    Trinity Mirror is the largest newspaper publisher in the UK and the second largest in Europe. It has an excellent track record in its management of regional newspapers.
     But the company does not have senior management with national newspaper experience.
    Strategically, Trinity Mirror must choose whether to back the Mirror in an expensive circulation battle based on pumped-up marketing and cover-price discounts or manage the title's steady decline while milking it for all the cash it can. 
    Without the support and cash of the publisher, not even Morgan's brilliance is going to shine through in a "gloves off" tabloid war.

April 2, 2001 © 2001 Media Life

-Simon Bond covers European media for Media Life, writing from outside of London.

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