In this age of stealth launches, where everything is hush-hush for fear of inviting another Talk magazine disaster, the great mother of stealth launches is fast nearing.
    In what may be a fitting image, think of a great iceberg breaking the surface of truly frigid waters well north or south of where you are reading this story. 
  We are talking, of course, about the launch of the National Geographic cable channel, which at this point is on track to hit a record of 10 million subscribers and has commitments for 15 million more.
    Indeed, with four months to go--September is the target these days--and as growth continues, the network is likely to surpass launches like TNT and FX, which both started out with about 20 million subs.
    The channel  launches with huge advantages, not the least being the National Geographic name and the 100 years worth of esteem that comes attached.
     But also at work is partner Fox Cable Network’s leverage in the market, which is influencing cable operators to pick up the network. The channel so far has agreements with AT&T, DirecTV, and Adelphia Communications. 
    But the National Geographic launch is not without its challenges.
   For one, it faces threats from fearsome competitors.
    The Discovery Channel, along with its Travel Channel, The Learning Channel, and Animal Planet, will likely keep National Geo Channel’s ratings at bay, at least in the short-term.
   Discovery enjoys a  77 percent penetration and a programming strategy that boosted its primetime ratings 8 percent in first quarter, to a 1.3, making it the eighth-highest rated cable network.
    Specials like "Raising the Mammoth" and "Walking with Dinosaurs" rank as cable’s highest-rated shows this year and the highest-rated cable documentaries ever.   
    All this recognition is understandably beginning to crowd the old standard bearer.
     Case in point: National Geo was ranked the No. 2 media brand in a 1999 Equitrends Survey,  based on the magazine, which has a circulation of 8.5 million, and its TV shows and specials.
     First was The Discovery Channel.
   The Travel Channel, meanwhile, has strengthened its base of viewers as well. Penetration has gone up to 39 percent, an increase of 30 percent in the past year alone. 
    The Learning Channel too is growing, with 72 percent penetration, as is Animal Planet, with 57 percent.
    But oddly the National Geographic Channel's toughest competitor may be itself. Or rather National Geographic programming that airs elsewhere.
    "National Geographic Explorer" already airs three nights a week on CNBC and the society recently signed a two year agreement with PBS to air its specials starting this fall.
      The network recently hired Laureen Ong as president of the channel. She comes from a long history at Fox, most recently working as general manager of one of the broadcast network’s owned and operated stations, WTTG-TV in Washington.
   Ong, who spoke to Media Life the other day, says the cabler’s initial focus will be maintaining its stately image rather than chasing down ratings.
    "We have an environment that advertisers want to be a part of, as opposed to a type of programming where we’re desperate for advertising. Usually people compromise like that because they are trying to appease an advertiser. We don’t need to do that nor will we ever do that.
    "The things that will be important to us, like conservation, are important enough that advertisers want to support a mission like that," she says.
    "We don’t have to make anything up to satisfy an advertiser. On the contrary, they want the alliance with us because we make them look good."
     Ong suggests that when the actual launch date is set, as September approaches, the channel may well  surpass the 25 million mark for subscribers.
   That pace follows National Geographic Channel’s rise in international markets. Launched in 1997, the channel is currently in 64 countries and 53 million homes. NBC is a partner with Fox for the cable network outside the U.S.
    "Right now, as our ad sales people are out there doing the upfront and selling the channel for futures, it is probably the most embraced product that is there," she says.
    Ong notes that some of the highest-rated programming on PBS have actually been National Geographic specials.
    "The good part of it is that National Geographic has an unsurpassed and impeccable brand identity, recognition and reputation," says Ong.
   And the bad part? There probably isn't any. 
   Indeed, the immediate challenge will be to take 100 years of good will and put it to good use while maintaining the integrity of the brand. That should be easy.
    After that comes the challenge of distinguishing itself from Discovery. 
     That could prove considerably harder.

-Kevin Downey is a staff writer for Media Life.

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