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but NBC will take the upfront
Peacock rebuilding Thursday and Fridays
By Kevin Downey
NBC is shaping up as the strongest network as advertisers get ready for next week’s $7 billion-plus upfront, even as ABC seems about to win the May sweep and the entire season.
The peacock network is challenging ABC for the lead among adults 18-49 based on the strength of regular programs that have stomped ABC on two nights each week of this sweep. Plus, NBC’s "Frasier" has been quietly but consistently beating "Who Wants to be a Millionaire?" most weeks.
And as the network prepares to present its fall schedule to advertisers today, it has already made moves to solidify its Thursday and Friday nights for the fall, notably by agreeing to shell out $4.5 million per episode to the six stars of "Friends."
Meanwhile ABC is looking more like a one-trick pony with "Millionaire." Admittedly, a strong one-trick pony but of some concern to advertisers unsure if, or when, viewership might suddenly take a tumble.
Regular episodes of "Frasier," for example, have been beating "Millionaire" on most Thursdays and as of last week, fueled by the departure of Julianna Margulies and a surprise appearance by George Clooney on "ER," a repeat of the show beat "Millionaire" in key demos.
NBC’s Thursday household rating of 18.7 was no match for any of the competition. ABC only managed a 9.5, CBS came in third with a 7.2, while Fox came in last-- even behind UPN and the WB--with a 3.6.
That helped NBC bounce back in the sweep-to-date ratings. Through Thursday, NBC’s adults 18-49 rating of 5.5 is a close second to ABC’s 5.7 and far ahead of Fox’s 3.9 and CBS’s 3.2.
Among households, ABC is the leader with virtually no chance of slipping into second place at 10.5 compared to NBC’s 9.0. CBS is in third, having dropped 10 percent compared to last year to a 7.9. Fox is down 11 percent this May to a 5.4.
The peacock’s performance in the May sweeps, while not a direct indicator of the season-to-date ratings that national advertisers are most interested in, along with its upcoming fall season line-up, at least gives NBC a strong performance to share with advertisers.
Plus, the fact that the network is giving ABC a run for the money among the advertising desired demo of adults 18-49 should help pull in upfront dollars.
Last year advertisers laid out at least $7.1 billion during the upfront, when about three-fourths of the year’s ad dollars are spent. NBC is the longstanding winner in that race largely because of its adults 18-49 ratings, having pulled in an estimated $2.3 billion last year, well ahead of ABC’s $1.9 billion.
The test for NBC now is to convince advertisers that its strategy of solidifying two nights of ratings wins with regularly scheduled shows is worthy of one more win in that race.
If ever there was a reason to pay six sitcom stars $750,000 each, it’s to keep the NBC "must-see" Thursday as strong as it can be.
Not taking any chances, NBC agreed to give the stars of "Friends" a reported 500 percent salary increase and ensured the hit will remain on the air for at least two more years. Earlier, NBC renewed "ER" through the 2003/4 season and is expected to announce in today’s upfront presentation that it is tinkering with Thursday to further strengthen it.
Among the expected scheduling changes, it is believed NBC will move "Just Shoot Me" and "Will & Grace" to Thursdays and shift "Frasier" back to Tuesday.
Meanwhile, NBC has managed to shore up its Friday night ratings with "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit." That show has pushed NBC into a Friday night win every week of the May sweep and gives the network yet another regular night of programs to tout to advertisers.
If ABC’s "Millionaire" suddenly takes a nose dive, the network has little to keep it in the lead, while NBC has enough solid performers to do well in the long haul.
Sure, ABC’s "Who Wants to be a Millionaire?" dominates in the ratings virtually every night it airs. And its four celebrity episodes last week pulled in its biggest audiences ever.
But the network has little else on the air to keep it in the No. 1 slot when viewership for "Millionaire" slips. The only other shows on ABC doing well are those that have benefited from "Millionaire’s" lead-in, including "Dharma & Greg."
Preliminary estimates for Friday have NBC winning the night with a 9.5 rating, beating out ABC’s 8.1, CBS’s 5.8, and Fox’s 4.3.
CBS won Saturday on a light night of viewing with a 6.3 household rating, based on the strength of "Walker: Texas Ranger" and its other Saturday shows, all of which had increases over last week.
ABC came in a close second with a 6.2, followed by NBC’s 5.7, and Fox’s 5.1, according to early estimates.
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Kevin Downey is a staff writer for Media Life.
