Bernadette Tracy: And will people want it?

By Jeremy Schlosberg

   Bernadette Tracy has been advising Fortune 500 companies on the marketing implications of consumer behavior for almost two decades. Tracy is founder and president of NetSmartAmerica.com, an online consumer motivational research firm that specializes in spotting emerging trends. Each Friday, beginning today, Media Life will pose a question about some issue in the news and publish her observations. This week she offers her views on the merger of America Online and Time Warner and the future of interactive television.

    "I think what the merger between AOL and Time Warner is doing is giving people false expectations about how quickly interactive TV is going to happen.
     "Because of the merger, a lot of people now feel that broadband is imminent. And what they’re failing to realize is that just because the technology may get into place quickly there still is going to be a very very long learning curve on the part of web site developers before we see anyone beginning to take advantage of the capability.
    "So even if broadband and set-top boxes had 100 percent penetration right now, we would still need to learn how to develop programming for this quote-unquote interactive TV. Some of great minds at the leading development companies are working with Hollywood to see what is required in terms of the technology. And beyond the technology, one of the missing essential components in this whole situation is this: Nobody really knows what the consumers want.
    "I would imagine that we’re going to have some early initial experiments in test markets to check out both the technology and the creative. But then we have to find out what the consumers want and how this is going to integrate it into their traditional viewing patterns.
    "This is really important, because no one really knows yet how the internet is impacting TV viewing. According to our report [ed.: What Makes America Click, published in Sept. 1999], we’ve found that 45 percent of Americans are watching less TV as a result of the internet—so they say. 
    "It’s important to note that last part: 'So they say.' I can break that down further. Fifty percent of men and 39 percent of women say they are watching less TV as a result of the internet. When it comes to standard programs, 32 percent say they are watching less—38 percent of men, 27 percent of women. 
    "When it comes to TV news, 26 percent say they are watching less because of the internet—31 percent of men, 22 percent of women. 
   "But the big, unanswered question in my mind is: Is this the result of the internet or is it the result of the programming. In other words, I’m watching less TV—so I say—on account of the internet. 
    "But it could on the other hand be the result of the fact that what’s available on TV I’m not interested in.
    "So I really don’t know if the decline in TV viewership has been caused by the internet. I’m sure there is some of that. But the question is: To what extent is this a result of existing programming selections?
    "As for interactive TV, when it gets here, I think the first thing we’re going to see is the development of interactive game shows. So instead of shouting the answer in their living room, people will actually have a home viewer component where you can participate in the game show.
    ""But even for this, again, there is a lot of technology that has to be figured out first. Nothing is happening all that quickly."

-Jeremy Schlosberg is the senior editor for new media.