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| 'The big cable nets have flattened out over the past year. Now the smaller cable networks are taking away some of their audiences. I think that for the big nets to move beyond a 2 rating and go to the next level, they're going to have to improve their programming.'
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and larger networks decline
Down to 8 percent from double digits
By Dave Lindorff
Cable's long ratings climb at the expense of the broadcast television industry appears to have slowed dramatically, as the bigger cable networks begin to find their viewership cannibalized by newer, smaller cable channels.
But the news is still far worse for the broadcast television networks. The Big Four were down by a collective 4 percent last year, to 24.1. The seven English-language networks together were down 1 percent, to 31.5.
The bad news for cable comes from the cable industry's own corner--Turner Entertainment Research.
According to Turner, which used Nielsen Media Research ratings data, cable collectively held an average primetime rating of 25.4 for 1999, up from 23.6 for 1998.
While that's a respectable 8 percent gain, it doesn't compare to the double-digit ratings growth of the prior four years, which was as high as 17 percent.
"You're bound to get slower growth on a larger total market," says a spokesperson for the Cable Television Advertising Bureau, in an effort to put a positive spin on the news.
That slower growth will continue. Bob Sieber, vice president for audience development at Turner and author of the study, says that he expects cable's primetime ratings growth to continue in the 8-9 percent range over the next few years.
Sieber also says the industry is likely to continue to add 2-3 million households a year.
"Our detractors would like to say that our larger networks aren't going to grow anymore, and that we're going to start eating our own," says Sieber, "but an 8 percent ratings growth is pretty substantial, and I expect it's a number that some of the broadcast networks would like to have."
But it's also a number some of the larger cable networks would like to see as well.
Indeed, Turner researchers report that a number of the larger cable nets are actually seeing their ratings dip.
According to the report, 10 of 37 networks that the study tracks suffered primetime ratings declines in 1999.
Among the losers were Turner's own TNT, which went from a 2.1 rating in 1998 to a 1.9 rating in 1999, Nickelodeon, down from 2.0 to 1.9, and Discovery, which fell from a 1.2 to a 1.1 rating over the period.
Also off in 1999 were the Family Channel, down from 1.2 to 0.9, CNN, down from a 1.0 to an 0.8, TNN, down from 0.9 to 0.8, Fox Family down from 0.8 to 0.7, CNBC, down from 0.7 to 0.5, and Headline News, down from 0.3 to 0.2.
The pattern of losers and winners was clear, with five of the top 14 cable networks losing ratings in primetime in 1999 and five gaining. Lower down on the list of 37 networks followed by Turner researchers, eight of the bottom 14 saw ratings gains, while only one lost ground.
Ratings gains were posted by USA, the top-rated cable net, which went from a 2.3 to a 2.4, TBS, up from 1.9 to 2.0, and Toon, up from 1.5 to 1.6.
Also up were A&E, from 1.3 to 1.4, the History Channel, up from 0.5 to 0.8, Sci-Fi, up from 0.7 to 0.8, and TV Land, up from 0.7 to 0.8.
Among the broadcast networks, the only ratings gainer was the Pax Network, up 17 percent, from an 0.6 to an 0.7.
"The big cable nets have flattened out over the past year," says Tim Spengler, executive vice president for national broadcast at Western Initiative Media.
"Now the smaller cable networks are taking away some of their audiences. I think that for the big nets to move beyond a 2 rating and go to the next level, they're going to have to improve their programming."
It was less than a year ago that the CAB was boasting of cable ad revenues jumping almost 30 percent in a year. Now, media buyers and planners say, the price pressure may be off.
"We won't see a fall in cable CPMs," says Spengler, "but you could see more make-goods on cable for underdelivery."
He notes that individual cable networks have already been giving make-goods because of over-promising on ratings growth in recent years.
Jack Wakshlag, head of research at the WB, says, "I think cable penetration is not growing as fast as it was. I also think that they're facing increasing competition from satellite broadcasters."
Adding to cable's problems this year, says Wakshlag, was the broadcast television industry's good fortune.
"Television is a hit-driven business," says Wakshlag, "and this year the World Series was really big, and ABC had a big hit with 'Millionaire.'"
-Dave Lindorff covers research and television for
Media Life.