|
| 'If McCain does really well in New Hampshire, and is able to carry that over to South Carolina and do well there, where Bush has a strong organization, you could see Bush going back to the well to raise more money'
|
early in heated presidential race
Slew of primary candidates with deep pockets
By Dave Lindorff
"Follow the money," said Deep Throat, the famous Washington snitch whose tips brought down the Nixon White House in the Seventies.
Now, with the the 2000 election campaigns heating up earlier than many thought, all eyes are on campaign ad money as it starts to move to politically connected ad agencies and to the local TV, radio and newspaper outlets in key primary states.
Indeed, campaign ad spending is expected to set new records this year, with presidential primary contests underway or about to begin in earnest in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan, California, New York and other states. Iowa's caucus is on Jan. 24, while New Hampshire's primary is on Feb. 1.
Candidates are expected to spend more and to spend it a lot earlier.
All the major candidates--Al Gore and Bill Bradley on the Democratic side and George W. Bush, John McCain and Steve Forbes on the Republican side, and even some minor candidates like Republican Gary Bauer--are set to spend the maximum allowed in early primary states.
That's $2 million each in Iowa, $1 million each in New Hampshire, and of course more later on in the bigger states.
With Democrats and Republicans battling for control of the House and Senate, spending on those races is also likely to set records.
Experts have been predicting that presidential and congressional candidates would spend upwards of $3.5 billion this year, well above the $2.2 billion spent in the record-setting 1996 presidential election year.
But that was before the presidential primaries looked like real contests. And that's not counting state and local races, where another $4 billion is likely to be raised and spent this year.
But with Bradley giving Gore a serious challenge, and McCain showing a surprisingly strong surge of voter support in New Hampshire, the two big-spending front-runners for their party nominations will likely shift their spending plans forward, dropping much more in the early primaries than they had originally intended.
That's good news for local news outlets, which will probably be able to sell whatever inventory is available in the final weeks of the various states' campaigns.
Total spending won't be affected for candidates like Gore and Bradley, who are accepting federal matching funds and thus have to adhere to federal campaign spending caps.
But McCain, because he still has room to raise and spend more money, can be expected to do so if his fortunes continue to rise.
Meanwhile, Bush and Forbes, who have declined public matching funds, are free of spending caps and can spend as much as they can raise--or in Forbes' case, have in pocket.
"If McCain does really well in New Hampshire, and is able to carry that over to South Carolina and do well there, where Bush has a strong organization, you could see Bush going back to the well to raise more money," says Larry Makinson, executive director of the Washington-based Center for Responsive Politics.
While the presidential candidates will begin buying some national cable ads, the vast majority of their spending will be on local cable and broadcast channels, experts say.
McCain, with his smaller bankroll, is said to be planning to spend relatively more on radio than on television.
According to Competitive Media Reporting, in the 1996 campaign 70 percent of political advertising money went to spot television.
This year, cable is expected to increase its share, especially during the primaries.
A key reason is targeting. In most states, independent voters are allowed to vote in one and sometimes in both party primaries. That means campaigns need to reach those swing voters who aren't so readily identified with a specific party ideology or platform.
Cable, with its niche audiences, is better suited for such targeted advertising than are broadcast stations.
The internet is also likely to play a role in political advertising this time around.
Bush's campaign is already running banner ads on America Online, and the Democratic Party is planning a major internet advertising campaign during the main presidential campaign season.
And then of course there's Al Gore. Having once claimed to have invented the internet, he can be expected to put his road show on the information highway, too.
-Dave Lindorff covers media research and television
for Media Life.