Imperfect storm: Sandy hurts ad $ forecast
Hurricane cost TV and radio stations millions
November 2, 2012
In its devastating sweep up the East Coast, Hurricane Sandy knocked out web sites, radio stations and TV broadcasts, temporarily closed down dozens of ad agencies and forced magazines to rearrange their deadlines.
All that disruption is going to deliver a punch to the media economy.
The storm has prompted one major forecaster to reduce his outlook for U.S. ad spending for the remainder of the year,
Brian Wieser, senior analyst at Pivotal Research Group, says that Sandy has further deflated an already-struggling media economy.
He has revised his forecasts for third and fourth quarter of this year, predicting a 0.5 percent decline during third quarter, compared to an earlier prediction of 1.2 percent growth, and a 1.4 percent dip in fourth quarter, compared to an earlier prediction of 0.9 percent growth.
Wieser now expects total ad spending this year to be flat to 2011, at 0 percent growth, compared to an earlier forecast of 1.4 percent growth (excluding political and Olympic spending).
Wieser is also downgrading his prediction for next year, putting growth at 1.2 percent, off from his original forecast of 1.7 percent.
Pivotal has been cautious about its 2012 outlook all year, noting fears about another recession prompted by the fiscal cliff and a general wariness of committing to major advertising initiatives by a number of companies.
Now Sandy has compounded those concerns.
“If we assume that spending equivalent to one day of the fourth quarter was ‘lost’ (because of interruptions to local TV and radio programming for several days in a significant portion of the country paired with the impact on decision-making among national marketers and media buyers based in the storm’s footprint), the storm will cost the industry almost $500 million of activity,” Wieser says in the report.
Television is of particular concern. Wieser notes that broadcast ratings this fall are below what had been guaranteed during the upfront and predicts that ad revenue will be down during fourth quarter, partially related to Sandy.
“[Network and cable TV] are those which are primarily being impacted both by the decision-making paralysis driven by the fiscal cliff and also by delays associated with the storm,” says the forecast.
Wieser also has a more conservative outlook on digital media than many forecasters, lowering his prediction for 2012 growth from 5.1 percent to 4.1 percent.
“We have generally brought down our expectations for growth in conventional display advertising and in online video while significantly expanding our expectations for mobile advertising,” the report says.
ABC and Fox tie for first on Thursday
The coming political boom for radio
How papers are reaching out to Millennials
Local Super Bowl advertising at a glance
Rachel, my boss doesn’t know when day’s done
So, what are your thoughts on Donald Trump now?
Weekend TV: The zombies are back
Newsweek tears down its paywall
Maybe it’s not quite time for the smartwatch
Cable overnights: Less excitement for Cavs-Lakers
A tight Wednesday night for broadcast
Programming blog: What’s canceled and renewed
Our most endangered medium: Direct mail
- Philippe Krakowsky rises to chairman at IPG Mediabrands
- Rodrigo Grau becomes CCO at JWT Latin America
- Charles Thornton becomes VP of digital at the Automotive Ad Agency
- Todd Eisner becomes creative director at barrettSF
- Sarah Katt becomes VP of product development at AccuWeather
- David Pescovitz becomes editor at large at WebbyAwards.com
- Eddie Jordan and Sabine Schmitz join BBC America's 'Top Gear'
- Lee Majors joins Starz' 'Ash vs. Evil Dead'
- Kyle Schmid joins History military drama 'Six'
- Shawn Ashmore joins ABC drama pilot 'Conviction'
- Scott Wilson joins Netflix's 'The OA'
This week’s broadcast ratings
This week’s cable ratings
This week’s top movies, songs and books
This week’s daypart ratings
This month’s new media traffic data
This week’s younger viewer ratings
Digital content manager opening in Atlanta
Senior media planner wanted in Des Moines
Media planner/buyer position in Cincinnati
Looking for a media strategist in Cincinnati
Opening for a marketing communications manager