Imperfect storm: Sandy hurts ad $ forecast
Hurricane cost TV and radio stations millions
November 2, 2012
In its devastating sweep up the East Coast, Hurricane Sandy knocked out web sites, radio stations and TV broadcasts, temporarily closed down dozens of ad agencies and forced magazines to rearrange their deadlines.
All that disruption is going to deliver a punch to the media economy.
The storm has prompted one major forecaster to reduce his outlook for U.S. ad spending for the remainder of the year,
Brian Wieser, senior analyst at Pivotal Research Group, says that Sandy has further deflated an already-struggling media economy.
He has revised his forecasts for third and fourth quarter of this year, predicting a 0.5 percent decline during third quarter, compared to an earlier prediction of 1.2 percent growth, and a 1.4 percent dip in fourth quarter, compared to an earlier prediction of 0.9 percent growth.
Wieser now expects total ad spending this year to be flat to 2011, at 0 percent growth, compared to an earlier forecast of 1.4 percent growth (excluding political and Olympic spending).
Wieser is also downgrading his prediction for next year, putting growth at 1.2 percent, off from his original forecast of 1.7 percent.
Pivotal has been cautious about its 2012 outlook all year, noting fears about another recession prompted by the fiscal cliff and a general wariness of committing to major advertising initiatives by a number of companies.
Now Sandy has compounded those concerns.
“If we assume that spending equivalent to one day of the fourth quarter was ‘lost’ (because of interruptions to local TV and radio programming for several days in a significant portion of the country paired with the impact on decision-making among national marketers and media buyers based in the storm’s footprint), the storm will cost the industry almost $500 million of activity,” Wieser says in the report.
Television is of particular concern. Wieser notes that broadcast ratings this fall are below what had been guaranteed during the upfront and predicts that ad revenue will be down during fourth quarter, partially related to Sandy.
“[Network and cable TV] are those which are primarily being impacted both by the decision-making paralysis driven by the fiscal cliff and also by delays associated with the storm,” says the forecast.
Wieser also has a more conservative outlook on digital media than many forecasters, lowering his prediction for 2012 growth from 5.1 percent to 4.1 percent.
“We have generally brought down our expectations for growth in conventional display advertising and in online video while significantly expanding our expectations for mobile advertising,” the report says.
CBS’s ‘CSI’ surges to season high Tuesday
State of the Union soars on Twitter
GoDaddy yanks controversial Super Bowl ad
It’s now suddenly tight among 18-49s
NBC’s big Super Bowl bet on ‘Blacklist’
How cable plans to counter Super Bowl
‘Fortitude,’ murder in a faraway place
So tell us, who will win Sunday’s Super Bowl?
Russian spies and their family ties
Cable overnights: ‘Love and Hip Hop’ grows
NBC slates Super Bowl en Español
Strong DVR growth for Fox’s ‘Empire’ premiere
Watch Super Bowl ads at the Super Bowl
- Mehta Mehta becomes group digital creative director at INNOCEAN
- Gustavo Sarkis becomes ECD at Crispin Porter + Bogusky
- Jason Trobman becomes CTO at Digital Pulp
- Bruce Lefkowitz rises to EVP of ad sales at Fox Networks Group
- Luis Carlos Vélez becomes EVP of news at Telemundo
- Toby Faulkner rises to VP of programming at FYI
- Liz Alderman and Brandy Crawford join Tremendous! Entertainment
- Millie Brady joins Lifetime's 'The Clan of the Cave Bear'
- David Tennant joins Netflix's 'A.K.A. Jessica Jones'
- Craig Ferguson signs overall deal with Lionsgate TV
This week’s cable ratings
This month’s new media traffic data
This week’s broadcast ratings
This week’s top movies, songs and books
This week’s daypart ratings
This week’s younger viewer ratings
Assistant media buyer opening in San Francisco
Digital media buyer job in Minneapolis
Programmatic media planner wanted in New York
Assistant digital media planner job in Dearborn, Michigan
Media planner/buyer position in Baltimore